Kinda reminds me of Trent Telenko which claims Russian nuclear deterrent degraded.
a nuclear testing will silence them but there will be greater consequences.
a nuclear testing will silence them but there will be greater consequences.
Indian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
Where can I read that threa
In my opinion, if there is a Taiwan conflict, India might attempt to invade the disputed territories with China and more. Both the Indian and Western media will be playing the: "China is losing badly. China is falling." propaganda on steroids. The Indian leadership, might feel supremely confident again, just like during the early Covid days, to backstab China again.
Just like Russia today, China should expect the US to rally a good number of countries to condemn, sanction, boycott, and sabotage it. In that crowd of hate, will be countries from both the developed, and developing world. India will obviously be on the top of that list, for it'll perceive this as its best opportunity to bring China down. Having India backstab China during a Taiwan conflict should be a dream come true for the Americans. So I'm sure that the US will try to encourage India to do just that. I could be all wrong, and India might actually just not take the American and JH bait. But it is better for China to prepare for an Indian backstab than to be caught by surprise. That preparation alone might actually deter India from pulling off any backstab altogether.
Indeed the Indian leadership appears to be leaning more to the West recently. But I think its not that simple. We should remember that India has no true loyalty other than to itself. For decades, India had been shifting its favour back and forth between the West and Russia. Usually depending on who is supporting Pakistan or China. As of now, I see some shift happening among some Indian elites towards the West. But they are still a relative minority. I guess the big shift can only come when Russia is perceived to take China's side in a hot Sino-Indo conflict. Most Indians in my opinion, think that India that is the center of attention between Russia and the West, and not India having to follow in either camps. In their minds, India has the enviable position of having good relationships with both the West and Russia, because of India's supreme importance in the world. India can curry favours from both, while China and Pakistan can't. I have my own opinions on this kind of Indian world-view, but neutrals and pro-Indians would argue that it is pragmatic.
The book is actually worth reading. If he said the events in the first chapter occured in like a 2040+ timeframe it would make more sense but I do agree it comes off as very fantastical. As someone who didn't know anything about the indian military, how he explains how the Indian military has become a political tool at the cost of conventional capability was enlightening
I have always been expecting that sooner or later, India would outright backstab Russia and get real cozy with the West thanks to US pursuasion and Delhi's view that Moscow and Beijing are getting closer ever than before (and that Russia would become China's vassal thanks to the war in Ukraine).
Therefore, China should do its best to bring Russia completely over to its side and have Russia provide assistance to China in terms of intelligence on the Indian military, considering that at present, there are still significant amount of arms caches in India that are sourced from Russia. However, the later might not be very useful, but it would have to do.
Besides, as I have previously mentioned in the PLA Strategy for Taiwan Conflict thread - China must always be prepared for a two-front war - One in the WestPac frontier over Taiwan and the SCS against the US and their "allies", and another one in the Himalayan frontier over Aksai Chin and Aruchal Pradesh against US-backed India.
Of course, the higher priority should be given to the WestPac frontier compared to the Himalayan frontier, since the WestPac is where the key for the ultimate survival of the Chinese civilization state lies (remember that the barbaric invasion of China by Imperial Japan started there). However, whenever possible, the WTC should be able to at least hold off the Indian invasion of Tibet on their own while waiting for the WestPac frontier to be dealt with. The goal is to make the Himalayan frontier into as much of a WW1-style static front as possible. This could last for years, but it should be managable for the PLA thanks to the terrain.
At the same time, the MSS and PAP should monitor Tibet closely for any signs of insurrection movements supported by India, aiming to destabilize Tibet and negatively affect PLA movements in the region. On the flipside, China should massively increase the support of separatist movements in northeastern India for the similar goals of making things difficult for the Indian military in the Sikkim and South Tibet region.
Meanwhile, India-Myanmar relations should also be watched closely by Beijing. If Naypyidaw shows any sign of openly supporting India's actions against China, China should reciprocate in kind WRT the separatist movements in northern Myanmar. In contrary to many's opinion here, I don't think China should rely on any meaningful help from Myanmar.
Plus, China should consider roping Pakistan in to help China and split India's attention. For this, I believe Pakistan doesn't need to invade India - Just massing troops along the Indo-Pakistan border and the Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) region would be helpful to keep some portions of the Indian military attached to the Indo-Pakistani border and the J&K region. However, I wouldn't count on Karachi heavily for their capability in helping China to hold India off, considering that their military leadership has been throughoutly infiltrated by pro-US elements.
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In my view the best way to prevent a Himalayan scenario is to drain the Indian Army of the funds it needs for modernization, making the Indians conservative about challenging China in the mountains. The easiest way to drain the Indian Army is to help the Indian Navy get an upper hand in budget battles. Specifically that means getting the Indian third aircraft carrier program started as soon as possible. Note, a third aircraft carrier along with the planes could cost up to $20 billion. A third aircraft carrier would damage the Indian military capital expenditure budget for the next 10 years.
The Indian third aircraft carrier program continues to be stalled. PLAN needs to sail an aircraft carrier to Pakistan to help the Indian Navy get the funds it needs.
There is a school of thought that China's tactic is completely the opposite - force India to invest in protecting its Northern border to reduce the funds available to the Indian Navy - which could cause far more serious problems for China at Indian Ocean choke points than the Indian Army ever could on the borders of Tibet.
The wisdom of the opposite strategy should be evaluated by asking four questions in two groups.
Himalayas
1. Do the odds of a conflict in this scenario increase if there is more funding for the Indian Army?
Higher odds. There is no conflict scenario between China and India more likely than the Himalayas because there it is a clear and present danger with 50,000 troops on each side facing off in Eastern Ladakh. There was already a massive brawl in June 2020 with dozens of casualties. It is easy to imagine an event like what happened in June 2020 spiraling out of control into a limited war because emotions are running high in the aftermath of a clash and the Indians could blunder and miscalculate in an atmosphere of constant war propaganda like in June 2020. Increasing funding for the Indian Army to modernize forces in the boundary area will increase their confidence and boost the already high odds of war.
2. If there is a conflict, how much more damage could the Indian Army inflict with more funding?
Higher damage. Given the close proximity of troops in the boundary area, extra Indian Army investments in long delayed procurements for drones and artillery will kill more PLA troops if there is a limited war.
Indian Ocean
1. Do the odds of a conflict in this scenario increase if there is more funding for the Indian Navy?
No change. There is no flashpoint in the Indian Ocean like the Himalayas. Relative to limited war in the Himalayas, the odds of a battle for command of the Indian Ocean are lower. If there is funding for a third aircraft carrier, I do not think this increases the already relatively low odds of conflict. Besides the lack of any flashpoint, India ships are highly vulnerable in a battle for the Indian Ocean because of the formidable PLAN submarine force. Indians will realize it is they who will get choked and do not want a sprawling battle for the Indian Ocean regardless of 2 or 3 aircraft carriers.
2. If there is a conflict, how much more damage could the Indian Navy inflict with more funding?
Unclear to me. What are the capabilities of the existing two Indian aircraft carrier in terms of blocking Chinese shipping? How would the third carrier enhance those capabilities?
In any case, even if the third air carrier enhances capabilities to block Chinese shipping, the lower odds of a battle for the Indian Ocean as opposed to a limited war in the Himalayas makes it clear to me the Indian Navy getting funding for the third aircraft carrier is a lot better from our perspective than the Indian Army being able to grab the same funds from the overstretched Indian military capital expenditure budget.
Normally, single tweets are bad, but in this case - it's funny. ;p