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@Gloire_bb

I feel you are grasping at straws in constructing a completely artificial scenario.
And I already know the geography.

1. China is going to attack in Kashmir and NE India - if India tries to blockade China in the Malacca Straits. A few squadrons of J-20 stealth fighter should cut down Indian fighter jets like flies. India faces the prospect of losing air superiority over the cities of Northern India. So what spare aircraft are you talking about for the Andaman Islands?

2. The Malacca Straits countries are not going to be neutral. They will openly or tacitly support China in defeating the Indian blockade which is hurting Asia's seaborne trade

3. A portion of the Chinese fleet is capable of completely overwhelming and destroying the Indian Navy and any supporting land-based aircraft.

4. China has enough submarines to completely blockade all of India's ports. Whilst India doesn't have enough ships even to defend Indian ports and implement a Malacca blockade as well. Never mind resupply the Andaman Islands. Redo your numbers on your proposed force structure. The Chinese could send 10 submarines against the Indian West Coast, 10 submarines against the Indian East Coast, then still have 40 submarines for the Indian fleet near the Andaman Islands.

5. Remember that China can actually base a large bomber, fighter and tanker fleet in the South China Seas. Call it 300 aircraft in total. Theoretically, China could have 100 H-6 bombers flying 3000km to the Andaman islands and back without any airborne refueling. And come to think of it, it might be easier for Chinese strike fighters to fly over the city of Kolkota, and then launch cruise missile attacks against the Andaman Islands. How is the port city of Kolkota supposed to resupply the Andaman Islands?

@Gloire_bb

And since you raised the issue of Pakistan, what is stopping the Pakistan Navy from *inspecting* oil tankers leaving the Arabian Gulf if they are bound for India?

Is India really going to start a war with Pakistan, whilst India is losing a fight against China?

AndrewS said:

@Gloire_bb

I feel you are grasping at straws in constructing a completely artificial scenario.
And I already know the geography.

1. China is going to attack in Kashmir and NE India - if India tries to blockade China in the Malacca Straits. A few squadrons of J-20 stealth fighter should cut down Indian fighter jets like flies. India faces the prospect of losing air superiority over the cities of Northern India. So what spare aircraft are you talking about for the Andaman Islands?

2. The Malacca Straits countries are not going to be neutral. They will openly or tacitly support China in defeating the Indian blockade which is hurting Asia's seaborne trade

3. A portion of the Chinese fleet is capable of completely overwhelming and destroying the Indian Navy and any supporting land-based aircraft.

4. China has enough submarines to completely blockade all of India's ports. Whilst India doesn't have enough ships even to defend Indian ports and implement a Malacca blockade as well. Never mind resupply the Andaman Islands. Redo your numbers on your proposed force structure. The Chinese could send 10 submarines against the Indian West Coast, 10 submarines against the Indian East Coast, then still have 40 submarines for the Indian fleet near the Andaman Islands.

5. Remember that China can actually base a large bomber, fighter and tanker fleet in the South China Seas. Call it 300 aircraft in total. Theoretically, China could have 100 H-6 bombers flying 3000km to the Andaman islands and back without any airborne refueling. And come to think of it, it might be easier for Chinese strike fighters to fly over the city of Kolkota, and then launch cruise missile attacks against the Andaman Islands. How is the port city of Kolkota supposed to resupply the Andaman Islands?

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Jesus. Guys are we still debating his nonsense. He lives in s fantasy world. His mind bending ability puts another member from the A-Team to shame.

antiterror13 said:

China could simply stop the flow of three main rivers (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra) to India .. or put something in the water before flowing to India

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Those three rivers might originate in China, but the overwhelmingly majority of their water volume comes from monsoon rains being triggered by the Himalayas on the southern Indian side. China could damn those rivers and not let a single drop flow into India and the net impact on those three rivers would be negligible.

Poisoning the rivers is a viable option, but not one modern China would ever stoop so low as to even seriously consider never mind doing. Jai Hinds OTOH couldn’t wait to poison every Chinese river they could given half a chance. Why do you think they are so obsessed with Tibet. Like their Anglo masters, it’s all projection their own devious desires on China with that lot. They want Tibet so they could poison Chinese rivers or use threats to do so to try to force China to cave to their ridiculous demands.

AndrewS said:

1. China is going to attack in Kashmir and NE India - if India tries to blockade China in the Malacca Straits. A few squadrons of J-20 stealth fighter should cut down Indian fighter jets like flies. India faces the prospect of losing air superiority over the cities of Northern India. So what spare aircraft are you talking about for the Andaman Islands?

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If PLAAF cuts IAF like flies - it's even more of a reason for IAF to partially disengage and go defensive.
Put yourself into their shoes.

AndrewS said:

2. The Malacca Straits countries are not going to be neutral. They will openly or tacitly support China in defeating the Indian blockade which is hurting Asia's seaborne trade

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Difficult to say: we're talking about countries that specifically avoid taking sides as long as they aren't directly attacked themselves.
(1)Their trade in this assumption only gets a temporary hit. From some point onwards - it actually becomes more of a money-making opportunity. US-China trade war was treated exactly as such. For example, Vietnam currently booms economically on this chance.
(2)Tacit approval...the only thing which will change the calculus is either direct military involvement (not happening), or at least permission of overflight - which isn't tacit.
(3)We're talking about region where US ties and military presence remains strong(you literally pass by US ships based in Singapore by going through Malacca). I don't think that expecting anything better than neutrality from the region is useful.

AndrewS said:

3. A portion of the Chinese fleet is capable of completely overwhelming and destroying the Indian Navy and any supporting land-based aircraft.

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A portion...it's actually interesting to try to play the same disposition from the Chinese side - but my current guesswork tells me that it doesn't work out. Until around ~2025, Indians have to do something wrong to actually lose. And even afterward it'll be more complicated than just China win. We aren't at a scale where there are simple short answers - both militaries are quite big and capable.

AndrewS said:

4. China has enough submarines to completely blockade all of India's ports. Whilst India doesn't have enough ships even to defend Indian ports and implement a Malacca blockade as well. Never mind resupply the Andaman Islands. Redo your numbers on your proposed force structure. The Chinese could send 10 submarines against the Indian West Coast, 10 submarines against the Indian East Coast, then still have 40 submarines for the Indian fleet near the Andaman Islands.

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1. Ships.
Ships "aren't being used to defend ports" - this isn't how naval warfare works (what's the point of defending empty sea?)
Ships are used to protect something valuable - for example, convoys. You don't need to protect the whole sea - only moving area where attack against the vessel(s) you protect is possible.
Another mission is actually hunting down submarines themselves - but it's the duty of aviation. Fleet in question - P-8Is(10+2), Il-38SDs(5), +Ka-27(18) and MH-60R(24 on order)s. This is a pretty capable fleet - P-8I is arguably one of the most capable aircraft of this kind in the world, with unmatched search efficiency. Same can be said about helicopters - which aren't glued to ships.
p.s. to be fair - indians indeed plan to build some actual coastal ASW units, which can be interpreted as sort of modern large sub chasers. But even they aren't for port protection.

2. Chinese submarines.
First, PLAN can't send just go and send 60 submarines - if anything, because it'll break their whole operations/repair schedule. No navy can do it, and when something similar was attempted during ww2(Italians tried it early in ww2) - it was a remarkable flop (submarines were lost for a single most stupid reason - there were too many of them).
A realistic number of submarines continuously on patrol won't go much higher than 1/3 of the fleet(that's for normal patrols, see second point).

Second, there is range. Assuming submarine based in Sanya, - it's around ~3'700 nm to eastern and ~4200 NM to the western Indian shore - by the shortest route (through Malacca, which is kinda suicidal).
Or around or slightly north of two weeks of cruising. I believe you already see the problems. First of all, to operate a typical ocean-going conventional submarine like this - it probably will have to somehow refuel in the Indian ocean - range of Chinese submarines may seem to be enough, but we aren't exactly talking about cargo vessel on a cargo run.
And even assuming it isn't a problem - going there and back is around 30 days. The remaining time on station is glorious 1/3 of your typical large conventional boat endurance. So realistically - you have to assume only 1/4 of your capable fleet being at any time there.(1 on patrol, 2 on transit to and from, 1 on maintenance and preparing for patrol).

At this point, it's already only worth counting nuclear submarines for operations around Hindustan(until Andaman position is breached), but there is still more.

Third - as I've mentioned, India has to take into account Pakistan - and that alone ties down at least 1/3rd of their sub fleet(and that is next door to them). When let's go back to Chinese waters:
-USN(~30) Pac fleet SSNs, with at least some being annoying in Chinese waters. War or no, they're hostile and shadowing Chinese SSBNs.
-JMSDF(~22) top-class conventional boats. Also hostile.
-ROKN - with their new shiny SSBKs. Not 100% hostile, but not friendly either.
-VPN (6 kilos in the middle of SSBN patrol areas) - also not too friendly!
-ROCN (no adequate subs now, but it itself is a patrol target) - well, you know how RoC loves China.
-Australia (12) - hostile.
It doesn't mean that subs have to be countered 1:1, but you still have quite a few spots which have to be occupied by a sub. Including at least 1 which can only be occupied by SSN.
Summing it up - (1)SSKs have trouble going that far(strait areas are probably their limit), (2)they already have quite a lot of stuff to do.
SSN can go there and are far more efficient(speed+endurance), but (1)they are far less numerous, (2)quite vulnerable.

AndrewS said:

5. Remember that China can actually base a large bomber, fighter and tanker fleet in the South China Seas. Call it 300 aircraft in total. Theoretically, China could have 100 H-6 bombers flying 3000km to the Andaman islands and back without any airborne refueling. And come to think of it, it might be easier for Chinese strike fighters to fly over the city of Kolkota, and then launch cruise missile attacks against the Andaman Islands. How is the port city of Kolkota supposed to resupply the Andaman Islands?

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From the South China sea - it can actually work (using LACMs). Interesting idea.
From Tibetan airfields ... tbh, seems too dangerous until H-20 is ready. The age when high-flying tu-16 counted as a penetration platform was ~60 years ago.

@AndrewS

Please please don't bite.

Guys, our friend here have derailed two threads with his mind bending abilities, and utter nonsence. Both Indians threads have been derailed. We know where his loyalty lies.

So please don't provide his oxgene for own satisfaction. He lives in a Walter Mitty world all of his own.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Why would China commit such atrocities when the PLAAF could shoot the entire Indian air force out of the sky and impose a no-fly zone over the entirety of India, a trivial portion of the PLAN could destroy the entire Indian navy, and China could simply annex every island in the Indian Ocean that India is squatting on.

The likeliest scenario is what plawolf pointed, that the US would mobilize and smash India first and seize those islands before China could get to them.

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Agree, China wouldn't do that, Thats why I said "could" ........ just give a slight hint to India, thats it, India would "obey" what China ask for

AndrewS said:

@Gloire_bb

And since you raised the issue of Pakistan, what is stopping the Pakistan Navy from *inspecting* oil tankers leaving the Arabian Gulf if they are bound for India?

Is India really going to start a war with Pakistan, whilst India is losing a fight against China?

Click to expand...

"Inspecting" in presence of a military(government really) ship in peacetime won't happen - it'll simply interfere. See how, say, Vietnamese inspections of Chinese survey vessels typically go. (spoiler: they go nowhere, CG vessels simply position themselves in-between).
This is exactly the reason why such a high number of ships was allocated there to the "western group".

Gatekeeper said:

We know where his loyalty lies.

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Oh dear.
1. This forum doesn't have any loyalty requirement for entry.
2. This is Indian Military discussions thread.
3. You don't know where my loyalties lie.
么么哒

Let's all stop with the personal attacks. The important points have been raised and it's clear India has no power to do such a thing even if we double IN and IAF. They have barely a token number of 4th gen fighters at Andamans. Less airpower than the J-15s onboard a single CV. And btw PLARF is exactly the kind of tool PLA uses to destroy airbases with... even aircraft and hangars in those bases. I would imagine if IAF presence in the Andamans (only place within range of MS since their mainland is WAYYYYYYY too far for their fighters) is a threat at all even a minuscule one, then the PLARF would be tasked with leveling their airfields. And yes China can produce MRBM and IRBM pretty fast. Expending dozens of MRBM just to negate IAF presence in Andamans is more than worth it when China has hundreds if not over a thousand MRBMs and can produce them faster than any other on earth.

Guess what... Indian airfields in Andamans is even within reach of CJ-10 cruise missiles from mainland China. PLAN can bombard it from the Gulf of Thailand as well. I'm sure the Thai and Burmese won't mind missiles flying past a slither of their nations for a few seconds.



It's really such a stupid hypothetical anyway. Sort of like discussing the Chinese invading the US mainland. Not going to happen. India knows it can't and even if there were no other objections to it, it won't be doing it.

We can revisit this topic if India picks up some stupid courage to try and then I bet the fight would be over before we get a chance to talk about it here and we'd only be defending against Indian claims of them sinking xyz and one Indian ship sailing towards the fleet of PLAN and taking it all out. Or some stupid Indian bs like that ... you know... "we killed over 100 PLA soldiers but have no evidence and no prisoners and yet have dozens of our men captured by the Chinese somehow" ... "we shot down F-16!" ... "Pakistan is using F-15s to attack for Taliban" ... "Taiwan shot down a Su-35" and so on.

At best India can expect to lose a few key ships and have nothing to show for that and possibly lose Andamans. At worst, they lose most of their navy and definitely lose the Andamans.