My impression of the Indians from closely watching them is that they are only considering buying the F35 to appease America and keep the relationship from losing momentum. In other words, they don’t see the utility in buying them even if it’s a great fighter because of the high maintenance costs and because they don’t feel it fits their needs. Likewise, I think the Americans cannot afford to actually sell India the F-35 due to lack of trust and because of the immense future great power potential India represents. The rhetoric regarding an F35 sale is largely symbolic from both sides and part of a larger pattern of geopolitical posturing that has increased over the past two and half decades. I would be less concerned about fighter jet purchases between the two nations and more concerned over the hugely influential Indian diaspora in America and America’s increasing dependence on it to maintain its edge against China in STEM fields. The Indians themselves seem to just want a fighter jet that is cheap and disposable, with low maintenance costs.
India is a natural geographic fortress which causes all sorts of problems for any nation with interests in the Indian Ocean. It projects outwards in a dominating manner into the Indian Ocean and is surrounded by open ocean. The Indian subcontinent itself acts as a geographic aircraft carrier that is unavoidable and imposing. It is surrounded by open ocean that naturally expands outwards to the Straits of Malacca, Bab El Mandeb, and Hormuz. The British kept Indian political prisoners isolated on the Andaman and Nicobar islands during the colonial era, and India inherited them upon independence. These islands give them a commanding perch over maritime Southeast Asia.
To India’s north the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau are the most effective geographic buffer on the planet and the harsh conditions up there impose all sorts of unique challenges. People who are not physiologically adapted to conditions at these altitudes require oxygen supplementation and must be rotated away from the frontlines regularly. Rapid deployment to these regions also faces unique hurdles from altitude sickness. Han Chinese are physiologically adapted to life at sea level and struggle with the oxygen deprivation at the altitudes of the Tibetan Plateau. Indian troops from the Himalayan regions have an advantage in these regards, while the Chinese do not draw upon their Tibetan populations for obvious reasons. Snowfall and avalanches regularly cut off mountain passes in the Himalayas, which causes logistical nightmares for anyone trying to project force across them.
To India’s northwest there is the Thar Desert which is barren and separates them from the failed state formerly known as Pakistan. To the Northeast there are extremely dense jungles that again inhibit large scale troop movement. India’s access to freshwater is routine and regular due to the rhythmic monsoon rains, which allow it to be completely food independent. Something like 40% of all crops grown in India spoil before they ever get to market. Most of its agricultural is micro in scale, driven by small families that use cows as beasts of labor and a source of natural fertilizer. Despite this, and the fact that it has the world’s largest population, it makes up nearly 40% of the rice export market among other food exports.
All of these geographic features make India a fortress that cannot easily be blockaded or invaded. These features trap India by land within the subcontinent but these same features allow it to project outwards naturally into the Indian Ocean. They occupy the central commanding position within maritime Eurasia, connecting the Middle East and Africa to East Asia. Well developed trade routes naturally run right alongside it, meaning that simply by defending their own territory they can interdict Indian Ocean trade. This will make them very hard to deal with in the future.
Fortunately for everyone else, their defense establishment is hugely complacent, corrupt, and slow moving, probably as a result of their geographical advantages. There is no sense of urgency. They have a lackadaisical attitude towards national defense and their defense industry in general.
Personally, I see no real point in mocking their fighter jet, APC, or tank developments. The military balance within South Asia has been decisively concluded in their favor and that is unlikely to ever change. They have minimal use for cutting edge equipment in these areas. They simply need to be slightly better than Pakistan, which is not hard at all. External powers like China and America gave India too much leeway early on in its development, underestimated the significance of the Indian Ocean, and are now paying for that mistake.
It is their navy that needs to be closely watched. Its expansion is going to have an outsized impact on the rest of the world because of their location.
