Indian Economics thread.

[Maikeru]

Bloomberg Quicktake asks: Is India The Next China?

Their answer:
1) India has the demographic advantage vs China for the next 30 years = Yes
2) China and the US have problems. India can take advantage = Yes
3) Indian govt has too many red tapes. = No
4) Indian govt is too protectionist of the Indian businesses. 'Make in India' has actually become 'Make for India' = No
5) India's women participation in the workforce is poor. Plus, its actually declining. = No
6) China has already moved into automation = No
7) China is both known for Manufacturing no.1 and Public Enemy no. 1. Nope, India doesn't want that. So... = No

So that's 5 No - 2 Yes = 3 No = NO!

So, even Bloomberg has already lost belief that India is the next China. It can be summed up in a statement on the 19:10 mark. It goes abit like this: "India's economy has always been considered the next China. But every time this conversation comes up, India is still the next China." I agree, India will always be in perpetual cycle, trying to play catch up with China. But never to actually catch up with China.

With the way India is being governed now, I predict that India is going to become the next Brazil at best. Impressive, but still nothing compared to China. That's the best case scenario. I can't imagine what the worse case scenario will look like.

Few people - in the West at least - want to talk about the real reasons why China and South Korea have grown economically while Africa and India remain mired in poverty.

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Of course average national IQ is not everything - political economy (e.g. DPRK v ROK), mineral wealth (eg OPEC countries) and other factors can very much affect national wealth, but a high correlation remains.

India is an unusual case because the high-caste Brahmins may as a group have among the highest average IQ in the world, but they only represent a tiny fraction of India's vast population.

 

[gelgoog]

I have said this before, but there is plenty of evidence countries with a high incidence of malaria, like India, or Sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have decreased productivity. Until these countries solve their problems with endemic diseases it is hard to expect them to go up the income ladder.

 

[PiSigma]

Bloomberg Quicktake asks: Is India The Next China?

Their answer:
1) India has the demographic advantage vs China for the next 30 years = Yes
2) China and the US have problems. India can take advantage = Yes
3) Indian govt has too many red tapes. = No
4) Indian govt is too protectionist of the Indian businesses. 'Make in India' has actually become 'Make for India' = No
5) India's women participation in the workforce is poor. Plus, its actually declining. = No
6) China has already moved into automation = No
7) China is both known for Manufacturing no.1 and Public Enemy no. 1. Nope, India doesn't want that. So... = No

So that's 5 No - 2 Yes = 3 No = NO!

So, even Bloomberg has already lost belief that India is the next China. It can be summed up in a statement on the 19:10 mark. It goes abit like this: "India's economy has always been considered the next China. But every time this conversation comes up, India is still the next China." I agree, India will always be in perpetual cycle, trying to play catch up with China. But never to actually catch up with China.

With the way India is being governed now, I predict that India is going to become the next Brazil at best. Impressive, but still nothing compared to China. That's the best case scenario. I can't imagine what the worse case scenario will look like.

Please don't insult Brazil by comparing it to India. Brazil got it's problems but India is on another level.

 

[Kaeshmiri]

India is an unusual case because the high-caste Brahmins may as a group have among the highest average IQ in the world, but they only represent a tiny fraction of India's vast population.

Biggest Myth propagated by Brahmans themselves. They have as much IQ as your average Jai Hind. The only reason this perception is created is because Brahmins have been historical bootlickers who've attached themselves with every king that ever ruled India. This way they've always remained close to power and enabled higher life chances for themselves with strict control over critical sectors like education (you control education, you control the destiny of every other group).

Brahmans are the White Supremacists of India who consider every other caste/race to be inferior to them (except Nordic races which they consider to be their long lost brothers lmao).

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Biggest Myth propagated by Brahmans themselves. They have as much IQ as your average Jai Hind. The only reason this perception is created is because Brahmins have been historical bootlickers who've attached themselves with every king that ever ruled India. This way they've always remained close to power and enabled higher life chances for themselves with strict control over critical sectors like education (you control education, you control the destiny of every other group).

Brahmans are the White Supremacists of India who consider every other caste/race to be inferior to them (except Nordic races which they consider to be their long lost brothers lmao).

Brahmans are the White Supremacists of India who consider every other caste/race to be inferior to them (except Nordic races which they consider to be their long lost brothers lmao).

Really? What's their historical basis?

 

[Kaeshmiri]

Really? What's their historical basis?

Basically Brahmans consider themselves to be Pure Aryans and White people to be that Aryan Branch that migrated Northwards towards Europe and lost their culture along the way. So while today the skin color difference is apparent , mythologically they consider them to be their own .
So if there is any White guy here i can tell you you will be treated very well in India as you'll be seen as the purest and civilised (although that wont prevent you from getting scammed).

 

[Sardaukar20]

Please don't insult Brazil by comparing it to India. Brazil got it's problems but India is on another level.

Well perhaps you are right. What I actually meant was Brazil is the best case scenario for India in the next decades going forward. Assuming they get extremely lucky, and they suddenly change their leaders for better ones. India today cannot be compared to Brazil, the gap is immense.

But if India doesn't change its course, and continues ahead with their Hindutva clowns. I cannot imagine what the next decades will look like. They could well possibly slide into banana republic territory.

 

[PiSigma]

Well perhaps you are right. What I actually meant was Brazil is the best case scenario for India in the next decades going forward. Assuming they get extremely lucky, and they suddenly change their leaders for better ones. India today cannot be compared to Brazil, the gap is immense.

But if India doesn't change its course, and continues ahead with their Hindutva clowns. I cannot imagine what the next decades will look like. They could well possibly slide into banana republic territory.

I don't think Brazil's level of development is reachable for India. If you go to Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo, most of the city are highly functional modern areas. They are generally well kept and clean with lots of formal commerical activity. As a side bar, food in Brazil is amazing.

Even smaller cities like Fortaleza, Natel, Salvador are usually well developed in the downtown and historic centers.

Crimes has gotten worse there, but mostly around the areas that are close to the favelas. The slums are pockets in a modern city. The city all have modern infrastructure, like sewage and running water. Even the slums got some infrastructure.

Whereas for India, the slums are never ending with pockets of development in between. No modern city infrastructure to speak of for vast majority of people living even in their major cities.

To reach even Brazil's level of GDP/cap of $6800 from India's current $1900, considering India population, is literally impossible. They are having GDP per cap decline recently. They pump out more babies, they will go back to $1500 soon.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

With the way India is being governed now, I predict that India is going to become the next Brazil at best. Impressive, but still nothing compared to China. That's the best case scenario. I can't imagine what the worse case scenario will look like.

Collapse/civil uproar/balkanisation.

With that said, there's a pretty strong red movement in the south and east although things might go the other way in northern regions.

If the west doesn't get to intervene too much, I actually see the parts that go communist actually slowly raise themselves up and improve their conditions.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

They could well possibly slide into banana republic territory.

Please don't insult banana republics