Indian Economics thread.

[kentchang]

They should not conflate all of Asia with East Asia/Confucian societies. North Korea, as an hermit, isolated regime, continues to underperform.

The only schoolchildren who outperform Western schoolchildren on rigid tests are East Asian, maybe partly, due to their rigid schooling systems. Japan and other developed Asian countries are beginning to shed their dogmatic, rigid approach to adopt a more flexible one. That's why you are beginnng to see those democratic East Asian countries slip up in these rankings in recent years.

You obviously don't have any clue about the nature of PISA tests. You should google. This is why China's performance first time it joined was so shocking that OECD held up the results for one whole year so they can find out where they went wrong in the statistical sampling. They couldn't. Every prejudice and stereotype from sampling methodology to all possible ways to game the system to migrant kids during harvesting period were hashed and rehashed countless times in the last ten years. In the end, the conclusions stood and China repeated its domination with expanded coverage in 2018. Britain even had a reality TV show with Shanghai teachers in UK.

The clustering of the top PISA scoring countries have not changed at all. All East Asian plus a couple Northern European. Nothing to do with 'democracy' or any religion. You sound very close-minded and judgmental. You would not have done well in PISA. There is a ton of academic analysis on PISA/China as even kids in the remotest and poorest regions like Guizhou in China outperformed avaerge OECD countries. The simplest and most straightforward explanation is East Asians are smarter than Western Europeans and don't expect the Indians to be able to catch up in the next few decades.

PISA is all about deductive reasoning, logical thinking, and comprehension. That is why it is such a amazing proxy for IQ tests.

Here is a link to a fascinating analysis of various countries' super genius pool after the 2018 PISA round. 2021 PISA is postponed until Fall 2022 so we'll find out the latest results (including India) in 2023. Obviously India talks big about their chances to move up (not hard as they were second from bottom) but they probably will be disappointed and quit again.

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[iioklwwelo]

You obviously don't have any clue about the nature of PISA tests. You should google. This is why China's performance first time it joined was so shocking that OECD held up the results for one whole year so they can find out where they went wrong in the statistical sampling. They couldn't. Every prejudice and stereotype from sampling methodology to all possible ways to game the system to migrant kids during harvesting period were hashed and rehashed countless times in the last ten years. In the end, the conclusions stood and China repeated its domination with expanded coverage in 2018. Britain even had a reality TV show with Shanghai teachers in UK.

The clustering of the top PISA scoring countries have not changed at all. All East Asian plus a couple Northern European. Nothing to do with 'democracy' or any religion. You sound very close-minded and judgmental. You would not have done well in PISA. There is a ton of academic analysis on PISA/China as even kids in the remotest and poorest regions like Guizhou in China outperformed avaerge OECD countries. The simplest and most straightforward explanation is East Asians are smarter than Western Europeans and don't expect the Indians to be able to catch up in the next few decades.

PISA is all about deductive reasoning, logical thinking, and comprehension. That is why it is such a amazing proxy for IQ tests.

Here is a link to a fascinating analysis of various countries' super genius pool after the 2018 PISA round. 2021 PISA is postponed until Fall 2022 so we'll find out the latest results (including India) in 2023. Obviously India talks big about their chances to move up (not hard as they were second from bottom) but they probably will be disappointed and quit again.

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You sound very close-minded and judgmental. You would not have done well in PISA.

Talk about being judgmental.

PISA is for schoolchildren. Don't tell me you are still a schoolchild.

Moreover, no China has never tested all the country's students for PISA scores but only some regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang alongside Beijing and Shanghai.

On top of that, I don't know what all that lengthy rant was all about since I merely pointed out facts to which you responded with a load of irrelevant statements that don't mean a thing in the context of that discussion.


Are you a schoolchild? Why do you consider PISA tests for schoolchildren anything of worth? Why is it that Japan and other East Asian democracies are slipping up the ranks in recent years when it's been found that their rigid education system has been alleged to hamper the growth of creative faculties?

 

[reservior dogs]

On the topic of IQ and economic growth, there is a lot of literature suggesting that there is a close link so it's a legitimate topic, IMO.

But I don't think you should take numbers showing India whatever low IQ number they are usually given very seriously.

Remember that India has (still!) very high stunting rates and malnutrition, which massively depresses intelligence. If you look at diaspora Indians, even those from "lower" castes, then they do pretty well economically by the 2nd and 3rd generation.

Take Singapore. By 1990, Indians were earning almost 90% of ethnic Han Chinese and this was before the great wave of skilled Indian migration had begun in earnest. Most of the Indians in Singapore were offspring of "lower" castes or even indentured servants who migrated from Malaysia, put there by the British to do menial work.

So, while India has a lot of problems, I wouldn't take their IQ numbers very seriously since you have to partial out stunting rates/malnutrition first. Same goes for PISA insofar as it's a proxy for intelligence (if you believe standardised tests measure intelligence, which I am not so sure of).

It is difficult to disentangle nature versus nurture on the topic of intelligence. Stunting rate is also another topic which can have a lot of variables. Tests of IQ do show that for a given person, IQ scores are stable even before that person reaches the teens. In this respect, stunting rate is irrelevant. First, the nutritional intake for the average Indian will not dramatically improve over the next decade. In fact, India already had a big improvement of the nutritional intake over the last couple of decades as the economy improved. Further gains are going to be slow in coming. Second, even if miraculously all the Indian kids get full nutrition as the West, those Indians that are ten years old or older will not see a significant improvement in their IQ. Finally, we can look at the Chinese during their Great Famine. Millions of people starved to death, you cannot get any worse nutritional deprivation than that. We are not seeing even a ten point drop for that cohort of Chinese compared to today's youth. In general, in China, as the nutritional intakes improved by leaps and bounds, we are only seeing a few points in IQ improvements over the decades. North Korea is another example where people have had very little food for a long time. There is a difference between those and the South Korean cohorts, but the difference maybe a few IQ points.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Talk about being judgmental.

PISA is for schoolchildren. Don't tell me you are still a schoolchild.

Moreover, no China has never tested all the country's students for PISA scores but only some regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang alongside Beijing and Shanghai.

On top of that, I don't know what all that lengthy rant was all about since I merely pointed out facts to which you responded with a load of irrelevant statements that don't mean a thing in the context of that discussion.


Are you a schoolchild? Why do you consider PISA tests for schoolchildren anything of worth? Why is it that Japan and other East Asian democracies are slipping up the ranks in recent years when it's been found that their rigid education system has been alleged to hamper the growth of creative faculties?

So what's the crux of your argument other than to appear contrarian. Is there not an academic test that defines or measures one's intellectual rigor or is your contention that such tests are anymore useful than an I.Q. test. And what examples of countries education system can you objectively qualify as worthy of emulating to foster the "creative faculties" you mentioned.

 

[xypher]

They should not conflate all of Asia with East Asia/Confucian societies. North Korea, as an hermit, isolated regime, continues to underperform.

The only schoolchildren who outperform Western schoolchildren on rigid tests are East Asian, maybe partly, due to their rigid schooling systems. Japan and other developed Asian countries are beginning to shed their dogmatic, rigid approach to adopt a more flexible one. That's why you are beginnng to see those democratic East Asian countries slip up in these rankings in recent years.

Classic salty white person - whenever you are losing on some metric, do some mental gymnastics to say why it isn't important. You obviously don't know what the PISA test is if you call it rigid, the questionnaire is focused on problem-solving with most of the questions not requiring extensive factual knowledge but rather creative application of the fundamentals. So it is actually contrary to what you said, low scores mean that the students from that country are unable to creatively apply their knowledge for problem-solving and would do well on classic classroom TIMSS-style problems. So resorting to the classic racist "creative west vs rigid asia" was a mistake on your part as it is hardly applicable there.

The highlighted part is just blatantly incorrect - South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc. all either went up or remained in the same place throughout 2003-2018 (2018 is the latest year, 2021 testing was postponed due to COVID). Moreover,

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. In addition to that, Germany, Norway, and Denmark overhauled their educational policies after failing the 2001 test and subsequently went up. So your attempt at presenting PISA as unimportant is groundless.

Btw, you sound a lot like @SleepyStudent who changed his tactic a bit.

 

[reservior dogs]

Talk about being judgmental.

PISA is for schoolchildren. Don't tell me you are still a schoolchild.

Moreover, no China has never tested all the country's students for PISA scores but only some regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang alongside Beijing and Shanghai.

On top of that, I don't know what all that lengthy rant was all about since I merely pointed out facts to which you responded with a load of irrelevant statements that don't mean a thing in the context of that discussion.


Are you a schoolchild? Why do you consider PISA tests for schoolchildren anything of worth? Why is it that Japan and other East Asian democracies are slipping up the ranks in recent years when it's been found that their rigid education system has been alleged to hamper the growth of creative faculties?

In statistics we can argue about causation but not about correlation. What makes these PISA score relevant is that the test scores of these teenagers are highly correlated to the prosperity of the country they represent. Since we are talking about the prosperity of India here, PISA score should be highly relevant.

 

[iioklwwelo]

So what's the crux of your argument other than to appear contrarian. Is there not an academic test that defines or measures one's intellectual rigor or is your contention that such tests are anymore useful than an I.Q. test. And what examples of countries education system can you objectively qualify as worthy of emulating to foster the "creative faculties" you mentioned.

There is no crux of this argument because it's no more than a joke to argue school tests for children will determine the actual IQs of countries' populatons. Worse yet, that they tell how well countries will develop into the future.

Industrial Revolution or any of the numerous fundamental principles and theorems of sciences and mathematics were developed in the last few centuries in Europe, not in China, Japan or Korea.

Japanese and Koreans still remain under the occupation of American boots. How can low IQ morons occupy more intelligent civilizations while also remaining a superior miitary scientific and technological power despite their supposed low IQ?

PISA tests have nothing to do with IQ as much as TIMSS has nothing to do with IQ.

Besides copying, East Asians have not surpassed Europeans (incl Russians Americans Canadians etc) in last three centuries in knowledge technology or invention.

Why not if East Asians had higher IQ?

 

[iioklwwelo]

In statistics we can argue about causation but not about correlation. What makes these PISA score relevant is that the test scores of these teenagers are highly correlated to the prosperity of the country they represent. Since we are talking about the prosperity of India here, PISA score should be highly relevant.

In statistics, you do talk about correlation rather than causation. You got it the other way round.

Still, as they say, correlation does not mean causation and by default, if you take some obviously random, irrelevant indicators such as the color of someone's teeshirt and his test score, you might still get some small correlation. That's how some of these statistical relationships might be designed.

I agree that India has a certain upper limit that its citizens won't be able to breach.

The proxy I find more reliable, more foolproof if you like, is the performance of racial, ethnic kins in other smaller societies.

For China, that would be Taiwan, maybe Hong Kong, Singapore Macao with some caveats. There are relatives in Japan and Korea, too.

For India, that would be Sri Lanka, maybe Fiji Mauritius or Guyana where they are a sizeable community. Maybe there are relatives in Nepal and Bhutan, too.

For Indonesia, that would be Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines or southern Thailand.

I have to say none of these three groups' prospects look highly promising. China's performance and achievements of mini-Chinas elsewhere, make it likely that China would outperform India and Indonesia.

Indonesia will continue to lag India in all metrics of national power while it may be able to lead, only marginally, in softer indicators such as health, crime, education stats for children but in metrics of hard national power, Indonesia can not hold a candle to either India or China for next 3 decades.

I am talking space program, nuclear weapons, ASAT weapons, aircraft carrier, nuclear submarine, supercomputer, papers and patents, high tech exports, citations in sci tech disciplines, multibillion ruble/yuan/dinar/dirham tech firms.

 

[ougoah]

Everyone is ignoring the economic and social stability factors in IQ and standardised testing like PISA. Indians would be expected to underperform in those with results skewed to lower end because of significantly lower nutrition (that's already a major factor), greater degrees of social instability (psychological handicaps that come with social or family instability), and poverty (no one worries or cares about academics and doing well in tests when they are starving and struggling to get by which is literally 70% of India or 900 million people. 900 Million people in India who would be considered absolutely destitute if they were western citizens and would be considered extremely poor if they were Chinese citizens.

But India did send almost entirely urban schoolkids for PISA testing when they did PISA tests. The reality is as much as Indians brag about how smart they are with CEO this and Ivy League that, India's own actual education system is horrifically bad (for first world standards) and can barely be considered to make people literate on average. Sure they have elites and elite schools but even those are WAY down the ranks when reflected in PISA and in university rankings, in industrial and scientific research and output and so on. There isn't a single metric that makes India look remotely capable EXCEPT for the basic and useless stat of "I have a lot of institutions that say they do xyz engineering".

This isnt' to say there aren't smart Indians... obviously there are millions of those. This isn't to say there aren't extremely wealthy Indians and upper middle class, there are hundreds of millions of middle class Indians... who would be considered poor in the West and below average in China but alas, enough to provide family and environmental stability for their testing scores to lift their national median and average to wherever it is - 70s in IQ and piss poor in PISA. Point is economic success naturally will raise these somewhat, not by much but significant enough to be noticeable, perhaps 10 IQ points at most and a lot better performance in standardised testing. After all that is a measure of education as well as inherent intelligence.

 

[ougoah]

There is no crux of this argument because it's no more than a joke to argue school tests for children will determine the actual IQs of countries' populatons. Worse yet, that they tell how well countries will develop into the future.

Industrial Revolution or any of the numerous fundamental principles and theorems of sciences and mathematics were developed in the last few centuries in Europe, not in China, Japan or Korea.

Japanese and Koreans still remain under the occupation of American boots. How can low IQ morons occupy more intelligent civilizations while also remaining a superior miitary scientific and technological power despite their supposed low IQ?

PISA tests have nothing to do with IQ as much as TIMSS has nothing to do with IQ.

Besides copying, East Asians have not surpassed Europeans (incl Russians Americans Canadians etc) in last three centuries in knowledge technology or invention.

Why not if East Asians had higher IQ?

Except this isn't true.

Most of the innovation in consumer electronics have been East Asian in origin for the last 30 years.

Even if we ignore Japan and Korea which are abundantly clear, we can focus on China. In the last 10 years China has innovated entire lines of technology - quantum computing, semiconductor fab processes and technologies (Taiwanese are ethnically a mix of northern and southern Chinese), semiconductor design (Huawei was the first to design dedicated AI chips and 5G comms chips), quantum communication technology (China was the first to "teleport" information and perform faster than light communication), biotech (rice and vegetation mods to grow in sand soil and high salinity). To mention but a few that just China did. If you want to look at Korea and Japan then they've done even more in innovation due to earlier industrialisation.

Now on to copying, China managed to develop a Mars lander and rover all on its own. One cannot attribute this to a copy since it isn't a copy of any previous Mars landers and rovers. It shows China was able to develop and master the numerous technology involved for this sort of challenging endeavor all on its own. Just because it was done after the US did it, does not make it a copy. Otherwise is it fair to say that the US copied China's 5G technology? Sorry Sweden and Korea copied China's 5G tech? US hasn't developed an entire ecosystem of 5G tech.

Is it fair to say Germany copied China's battery technology because they have started producing and selling electric vehicles after China? Remember that Tesla never developed their own batteries and only bought from East Asian nations - Korea, Japan, and China with LG Chem, Panasonic, and CATL, then BYD after CATL's deal.

Even in televisions, South Koreans and Chinese innovation have been numerous, they are simply less obvious to morons and ignorants. When have Europeans last innovated in the fields of televisions? or smartphones? Apple (let's say a Caucasian company) copied Chinese phonemaker Huawei in multilens technology and integrating multiple lens for different functionalities. That's an innovation. Oppo (Chinese) was the first to innovate 10x zoom with a laterally structured lens system and a 45 degree reflector. Few have even been able to execute that and do it but those who can, have copied it. Is that Europeans copying East Asians?

There are so many examples already just 20 years on after China industrialising properly into higher value chain and technology consumer products.

China innovated hypersonic glide vehicles. They have produced the most variety, performed the most impressive capabilities (US admits and agrees to this and even China admits this despite being strategic weaponry). Is the US trying to copy it while still developing and testing their own while China has many types even flying around the world?

I work in a tech industry in the west. Let me say that a lot of technology products are actually Chinese developed by Chinese engineering teams in China either via multinationals who have a presence in China (Chinese teams and people) or entirely a Chinese sourced organisation. The products are then specced to our standards and demands and purchased wholesale and it is considered "western" or the country of origin would be called American or British or Australian when it is truly 100% Chinese. They don't go to India for any of that. This is actually energy products - solar panel technologies (wholly Chinese) and designs for control modules and manifolds for renewables plus critical components like windturbines - newest ones developed by Chinese by Chinese companies and sold to Nordex, Acciona and other major players in this field.