Indian Economics Thread II

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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Where did you read it btw. I thought it was software exports that increased the most.

Anyways petroleum products won't last for long ig if that's the case.
Sorry, saw the overall export increase of $250B and the service export increase is only a fraction of that

here’s the May data
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Sl. No.Commodities(Values in Million USD)% Change
MAY'21MAY'22MAY'22
Commodity groups exhibiting positive growth
1Petroleum Products5313.288547.6460.87


Table 5: Export Growth in Commodity Groups in September 2022

Sl. No.Commodities(Values in Million USD)% Change
SEP'21SEP'22SEP'22
Commodity groups exhibiting positive growth
1Electronic Goods1168.112009.0771.99
2Tobacco77.23125.2462.16
3Petroleum Products5195.497429.8443.01
 
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luminary

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Hundreds of Indian students in Canada
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Hundreds of international students from India who came to study in Canada are facing deportation after their university acceptance letters were found to be forgeries. As many as 700 students could be facing deportation


Microsoft's GitHub said to let go
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India’s Boom Is a Dangerous Myth​

Indian elites, official forecasters, and international media have piled into the narrative that India’s economy is booming and positioning the country to become the great success story of the twenty-first century. Nothing could be further from the truth.
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Indian elites
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about their country’s economic prospects, and that optimism is mirrored abroad. The International Monetary Fund
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that India’s GDP will increase by 6.1% this year and 6.8% next year, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Other international commentators have offered even more
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, declaring the arrival of an
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or even an
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.
In fact, India is barreling down a perilous path. All the cheerleading is based on a disingenuous numbers game. More so than other economies, India’s yo-yoed in the three calendar years from 2020 to 2022, falling sharply twice with the emergence of COVID-19 and then bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels. Its annualized growth rate over these three years was a feeble
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, about the same as in the year
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.
The hype is masking a problem that has grown over the 75 years since independence: anemic job creation. Over the next decade, India will need 200 million
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, on net, to employ those who are of working age and seeking work. But this challenge is virtually insurmountable, considering that the economy failed to add any net new jobs over the past decade, when
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were entering the market each year.

This demographic pressure often boils over, fueling protests and episodic violence. In 2019,
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in the Indian railways: a job promised for every 357 people who sought one. In January 2022, the railway authorities announced that they were not ready to make the job offers. The applicants went on a
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, burning train cars and vandalizing railway stations.

With urban jobs scarce, tens of millions of workers
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during the pandemic to eking out meager livelihoods in agriculture, and there many have remained. India’s already distressed agriculture sector now employs
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. Farming families suffer from stubbornly high underemployment, with many members sharing limited work on plots rendered steadily smaller through generational subdivision. The
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persists. To those anxiously seeking support from rural employment-guarantee programs, the government unconscionably
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, triggering recurrent protests.
For far too many Indians, the economy is broken. The problem lies in the country’s small and uncompetitive manufacturing sector. Since the liberalizing reforms of the mid-1980s, the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP has fallen slightly, to
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, compared to 27% in China and 25% and rising in Vietnam. India commands less than a
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of manufactured exports, and as its economy slowed in the second half of 2022, the manufacturing sector
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.

Yet it is through exports of labor-intensive manufactured products that Taiwan, South Korea, China, and now Vietnam came to employ vast numbers of their people. India, with its 1.4 billion people, exports about the
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of manufactured goods as Vietnam does with 100 million people – and Vietnam is poised to race ahead.
Those who believe that India stands at the cusp of greatness usually focus on two recent developments. First, Apple contractors have made
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to assemble high-end iPhones in India, leading to speculation that a broader move away from China by manufacturers will benefit India, despite the country’s considerable quality-control and logistical
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. While such an outcome is of course possible, academic analysis and media reports are discouraging. Economist Gordon H. Hanson
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that Chinese manufacturers will move labor-intensive manufacturing from the country’s expensive coastal hubs to its less-developed interior, where production costs are lower.

Moreover, investors moving out of China have gone
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and other countries in Southeast Asia, which (along with China) are members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. India has eschewed membership in this preferential trade bloc, because its manufacturers
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that they will be unable to compete once the other member states gain easier access to the Indian market.

As for US producers pulling away from China, most are “
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” their operations to Mexico and Central America. Altogether, while some investment from this churn could flow to India, the fact remains that inward foreign investment
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.

The second source of hope is the Indian government’s Production-Linked Incentive Schemes, which were
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to offer financial rewards for production and jobs in sectors deemed to be of strategic value. Unfortunately, as former Reserve Bank of India Governor
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and his co-authors warn, these schemes, like
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, are likely to end up merely fattening corporate profits.

India’s heroic run with startup unicorns is also fading. The sector’s recent boom relied on cheap funding and a surge of online purchases by a small number of customers during the pandemic. But most startups have dim prospects for achieving profitability in the foreseeable future. Purchases by the small customer base have slowed, and
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– even for firms like edtech giant Byju.
 

xypher

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They sure CAN trade in rupee but will they?.. Malaysia has a trade surplus with India, I just don't see why would you want to hold rupee reserves when it has been depreciating against other currencies since India was formed. Investing and buying assets there is also very risky, plus I doubt many foreigners would like to buy some apartment in India, lol.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
They sure CAN trade in rupee but will they?.. Malaysia has a trade surplus with India, I just don't see why would you want to hold rupee reserves when it has been depreciating against other currencies since India was formed. Investing and buying assets there is also very risky, plus I doubt many foreigners would like to buy some apartment in India, lol.
Indian propaganda at its best. They learned from the West.
 

proelite

Junior Member
Vedanta and Tata are the multi conglomerates that traditional antitrust in the west would have busted up a long time ago. They're on all kinds of markets that aren't even adjacent in one another. Think Amazon on steroids.

They're are outsized corporations and probably have lot of political power in which can use for market distortions and raising barriers of entry. They dominate the economy and yet doesn't generate wealth for the country.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
Vedanta and Tata are the multi conglomerates that traditional antitrust in the west would have busted up a long time ago. They're on all kinds of markets that aren't even adjacent in one another. Think Amazon on steroids.

They're are outsized corporations and probably have lot of political power in which can use for market distortions and raising barriers of entry. They dominate the economy and yet doesn't generate wealth for the country.
Doesn't tata motors own jaguar and land rover? High end brands. I wonder if tata ever took the technology from those companies and put it in their domestic car industry? If so, why aren't they able to export high quality cheap cars given their large worker base?
 

mossen

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More on Vedanta.

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Indian govt is insisting on proven experience in the fab industry to get the subsidies. Why is that a "problem"? Because neither Foxconn nor Vedanta have it.

They tried to rope in STM as a technology partner but all they've gotten is a non-binding MoU. It doesn't help that the chip industry is slashing orders globally and investment is down. India has bad timing.

Moreover, getting their own fabs is questionable. It would be smarter to begin with lower-add work such as packaging. But Indian elites have grandiose views about their own country and such work is viewed as "beneath" them.
 
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