Equation
Lieutenant General
By hiring ghost writers?How do you write 'about' 16 books and co-author 'about' ten books... lol
By hiring ghost writers?How do you write 'about' 16 books and co-author 'about' ten books... lol
Yarlha Shampo (6636m)
climbed for the first time only in 2007?!
Preparing for a Rematch at the Top of the World
(Stratfor)
China and India faced off last year in a tense on the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) high in the Himalayas. Although the impasse was temporarily resolved in late August through a negotiated drawdown, it has been clear all along that the LAC will remain a contentious border because both countries will continue to seek an advantage in .
Recent reporting, particularly in the Indian press, has highlighted how India and China are along the LAC, including through the stationing of additional ground units near the plateau. Satellite imagery acquired by Stratfor working with its partners at AllSource Analysis helps illuminate the scope of these developments by looking at the air and air defense aspects of this strengthening of forces. Specifically, the analysis looks at four critical air bases, two Chinese and two Indian, that are within range of the Doklam Plateau. The imagery confirms that both China and India are pursuing a wide-ranging strategic buildup that has only accelerated in the wake of the Aug. 27 agreement.
The View From India
On the Indian side of the border, imagery of the Siliguri Bagdogra air base and the Hasimara Air Force Station depicts how India has moved to reinforce its air power close to the Doklam Plateau. Siliguri Bagdogra normally hosts a transport helicopter unit while Hasimara was the base for MiG-27ML ground attack aircraft until they were retired at the end of 2017. Since the Doklam crisis of mid-2017, however, the Indian Air Force has greatly increased the deployment of Su-30MKI warplanes to these air bases as can be seen from the imagery. The Su-30MKI is India's premier fighter jet, and it will soon be capable of striking land targets with the advanced BrahMos cruise missile. Furthermore, Indian reports indicate that a squadron of the recently purchased Rafale multirole fighters may soon be home-based at Hasimara. The dispatch of these top-of-the-line Indian jets and airfield improvements at both stations highlight India's determination to improve its force structure near the Doklam Plateau.
On the Chinese Side
An even greater level of activity is visible from imagery of the Chinese air bases near Lhasa and Shigatse. This expansion may indicate a greater buildup by the Chinese, but it could also reflect the more advanced facilities at these bases. Furthermore, unlike India, China's lack of air bases close to the LAC forces it to at these airports.
Imagery of the two air bases shows a significant presence of fighter aircraft (which peaked in October) and a notable increase in helicopters, as well as deployments of KJ-500 airborne early warning and command aircraft, components of the HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile system and Soar Dragon unmanned aerial vehicles at Shigatse Peace Airport. The Chinese made a number of major airfield upgrades at Shigatse immediately after the end of the crisis. A new runaway was constructed by mid-December, nine aircraft aprons measuring 41 meters by 70 meters were built along the main taxiway and eight helipads were set up in the northeast corner of the airfield. This construction, along with the deployment of new equipment in greater numbers, highlights how China has undertaken a serious effort to improve its capabilities close to the LAC.
Well we know what will be the outcome of this stand off. Where before there is none now China built permanent garrison in Doklam and the road building will continue only this time it will be escorted by the army. No this guy Brahma Chellaney who crow India has won maybe crow too fast
China’s troop buildup in Doklam means India can’t protect Bhutan
18 January, 2018
Preparing for a Rematch at the Top of the World
(Stratfor)
Doklam blues, again
A fortnight ago, the government did the smart thing by distancing itself ostentatiously from the “mischievous” media reports that appeared totally out of the blue to the effect that China has beefed up its military presence on the Doklam Plateau. The reports, based on satellite imagery, estimated that the PLA deployment is “close to the face-off point” last year on the Doklam Plateau; it’s on large scale and signaled permanent deployment; and, highlighted an augmented capability to undertake future activities at short notice in the contested area in south Doklam.
The MEA clarified that “status quo at the face-off site” has not been altered by China. The intriguing part was about the expression “mischievous” to refer to the media reports. Of course, the media reports were unduly alarmist and their source remained undisclosed. How far the reports were orchestrated from behind the scenes is hard to say but India-China border tensions are mostly like smoke and mirrors and various interest groups keep generating the smoke for their own nefarious purposes.
Interestingly, once the MEA debunked the reports (which coincided with the visit of the head of the US Pacific Command Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr.), they died a sudden death. But that turns out to be a tactical retreat. On January 25, more ‘satellite imagery’ has appeared – this time around, presented by none other than Stratfor, which is commonly associated with the US security establishment.
The imagery makes out that both India and China are strengthening their forces in the border hinterland of the Doklam Plateau and are “pursuing a wide-ranging strategic build up that has only accelerated in the wake of the Aug. 27 agreement” defusing the standoff. The Stratfor analysis concludes: “Now it is only a question of time until a new flashpoint along the LAC emerges, and as the increased activity shows, both sides will have greater capabilities to bring to bear next time.”
Stratfor has a chequered history of floating exaggerated reports regarding Russia, too. Most of them fit into the category of ‘psywar’. But it is useful to read them, if only to make out the American intentions. Isn’t it common sense that upgrade of defence preparedness is what is expected of armed forces, especially along a disputed border? The deployment of the advanced aircraft in the air bases in question (on the Indian side at least) predates Doklam standoff. Yet, just look at how Stratfor links it to Doklam and proceeds to forecast a “new flashpoint”!
No doubt, this is a high stakes game. For the US, fueling tensions between India and China is a key objective of their regional strategies. So many factors come into play here – India’s reluctance to be shepherded into the ‘Quad’; arms exports to India; Afghanistan; containment strategy against China; ‘America First’ and so on.
At the slightest sign of an easing of tensions in India-China relations, the Americans will step up. They probably sense that it is necessary to do so at the present juncture when the US-Indian ties are in a state of limbo, especially with the impending change of the foreign secretary in South Block and incipient signs suggesting that there could be new thinking at the leadership level. Certainly, a robust, forward-looking, ‘bilateral’ engagement between India and ASEAN with focus on trade and investment is not what the US would like to see happening at a time when it is muddying the waters in the South China Sea. (See my piece in Asia Times, Modi resets India’s foreign-policy priorities.)
Basically, the Americans have the upper hand in this shadow play — not only because they control the information order but also because the level of mutual understanding and trust and confidence between New Delhi and Beijing is woefully insufficient. India’s ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale touched on these sensitive aspects of the India-China relations during an interview with the Global Times newspaper this week. Evidently, the ambassador played down the Doklam standoff and warned against “blowing it out of proportion.” Having said that, he also underscored that there are “some sensitive points” in the India-China border areas where “it is important not to change the status quo. We need to be clear about this.”
On the whole, Ambassador Bambawale exuded cautious optimism: “We need to be talking and communicating with each other much more than we are doing. Such communication should be frank, candid and open. If we are able to do so successfully, we will understand each other much better and we will build trust and confidence in each other. With enhanced trust and understanding will come a stronger partnership between India and China. I would like to say that India and China are partners in development and progress. We are not rivals.” (The transcript of the interview is here.)
By M K Bhadrakumar – January 26, 2018
I don't know why you call me fanboi I never advocating war between India and China if anything I always held the peaceful and thriving Russian - China border as one that India should emulateChina fanbois and China threat mongers, sometimes they sound the same...
I don't know why you call me fanboi I never advocating war between India and China if anything I always held the peaceful and thriving Russian - China border as one that India should emulate
But the fact is that India is the one who cross the border and initiate this dispute and triggering China's response to fortify the border that is a fact.Where there is no permanent post now there is one
I always respect Ambassador Bradhakumar as sane and moderate voices in Indian politic But he is voice in the wilderness among hysteric media clamoring for revanche. India is not dragged kicking and screaming into the Quad She is willing partner so blaming Stratford is disingenuous and dishonest
All is not well at the border between India and China This article is an attempt to sweep it under the rug It won't solve the problem instead of facing the problem squarely
India under congress party take an equal distant but India under Modi take decisivily western tilt
This photo tell it all
View attachment 45158