Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

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Oldschool

Junior Member
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I predict even if China risen and surpassed US economically there would no end game.
West fought with Islam for thousands of years.
Frankly, it's battle of civilizations.

China should continue to do space exploration and have colonies out here, guarantee Chinese civilization would still survive even if their earth residence is in doubt
 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oldschool said:
I predict even if China risen and surpassed US economically there would no end game.
West fought with Islam for thousands of years.
Frankly, it's battle of civilizations.

China should continue to do space exploration and have colonies out here, guarantee Chinese civilization would still survive even if their earth residence is in doubt
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You will be right if the so called west remained united and never fought each other. I don't think that is the case at all. Just look at Muslims in the Middle-East who used to be under one rule of the Ottoman Empire but are now desperately fighting each other. I believe the current unity in the so called west is a temporary creation of US dominance and once that dominance is eroded Europeans will start fighting each other again.

There is no way southern Europeans like Italians and Spanish have no resentment against Germans and French who have become much richer and benefitted from colonialism and EU trade. Eastern Europeans also have a lot resentment and ethnic fear of Germans and nordics, being Slavic themselves.

I think the future of the so called west is to become divided and start fighting each other which will allow China to start expanding its influence in Europe and Latin America.
 
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davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
You will be right if the so called west remained united and never fought each other. I don't think that is the case at all. Just look at Muslims in the Middle-East who used to be under one rule of the Ottoman Empire but are now desperately fighting each other. I believe the current unity in the so called west is a temporary creation of US dominance and once that dominance is eroded Europeans will start fighting each other again.

There is no way southern Europeans like Italians and Spanish have no resentment against Germans and French who have become much richer and benefitted from colonialism and EU trade. Eastern Europeans also have a lot resentment and ethnic fear of Germans and nordics, being Slavic themselves.

I think the future of the so called west is to become divided and start fighting each other which will allow China to start expanding its influence in Europe and Latin America.
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China has already having influences in EU, and a trans-Asia- Europe train link. Also the China-EU trade partnership. China has trading with most Lat-Am countries, Brazil. Argentina, Chile and others including providing covid 19 vaccines to these countries.
 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
davidau said:
China has already having influences in EU, and a trans-Asia- Europe train link. Also the China-EU trade partnership. China has trading with most Lat-Am countries, Brazil. Argentina, Chile and others including providing covid 19 vaccines to these countries.
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That is just minimal influence of Trade. Not real strategic influence where Certain European countries will become aligned with China and start buying Chinese arms and welcome Chinese companies in strategic areas. China may even setup military bases in the distant future. That is the kind of influence I expect China will have in Europe and Latin America 50-60 years from now.
 
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Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
You will be right if the so called west remained united and never fought each other. I don't think that is the case at all. Just look at Muslims in the Middle-East who used to be under one rule of the Ottoman Empire but are now desperately fighting each other. I believe the current unity in the so called west is a temporary creation of US dominance and once that dominance is eroded Europeans will start fighting each other again.

There is no way southern Europeans like Italians and Spanish have no resentment against Germans and French who have become much richer and benefitted from colonialism and EU trade. Eastern Europeans also have a lot resentment and ethnic fear of Germans and nordics, being Slavic themselves.

I think the future of the so called west is to become divided and start fighting each other which will allow China to start expanding its influence in Europe and Latin America.
Click to expand...
European states fighting each other doesnt mean they won't remain anti China.

US is laser focused on China. Especially in Europe, Countries friendly to China will be sanctioned with their livelihood going down to dumpster
 
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tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oldschool said:
European states fighting each other doesnt mean they won't remain anti China.

US is laser focused on China. Especially in Europe, Countries friendly to China will be sanctioned with their livelihood going down to dumpster
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A China with 2-3 times bigger GDP than US will have much bigger economic power and countries under its orbit can ignore US sanctions and rely on China. This is already happening South East Asia where US does not dare to sanction the likes of Myanmar and Cambodia, who can rely on the Chinese market to counter any US sanctions.
 
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Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
A China with 2-3 times bigger GDP than US will have much bigger economic power and countries under its orbit can ignore US sanctions and rely on China. This is already happening South East Asia where US does not dare to sanction the likes of Myanmar and Cambodia, who can rely on the Chinese market to counter any US sanctions.
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Any effective policy has to have both carrot and stick element. GDP size is not enough. The main sanction element is the dollar system, being locked out means non trading with alot of other countries. Unless that country willing to exclusively relying on China . That's very unlikely. Unless you are Cambodia, it's a reclusive state. Myanmar is not in China orbit yet like cambodia.
US sanction is a multiplier. Not just under US sanction but any other countries relying dollar system will also shun it.

Only a few countries willing to risk US sanction and exclusively relying on China.

One very good example is Ukraine, long time friend of China until recently. China trying to buy strategic asset motorsich jet engine company in Ukraine. That touched a nerve in Washington. So US piled pressure on Ukraine and now Ukraine but banned China in the deals.. Also threw out any Chinese telecom equipments.

China and Ukraine trade bigger than US and Ukraine. But Ukraine cannot resist US pressure, it succumbed to become anti China.

It has no choice.

China' s stick is not big enough. It can harm a particular country business related to China. But it cannot affect that country and other countries business.
 
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K

kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oldschool said:
I predict even if China risen and surpassed US economically there would no end game.
West fought with Islam for thousands of years.
Frankly, it's battle of civilizations.

China should continue to do space exploration and have colonies out here, guarantee Chinese civilization would still survive even if their earth residence is in doubt
Click to expand...
Your view is very zero-sum, very wrong, and very pessimistic. This is not a battle. There is no end game. We are simply witnessing the transitioning from one dominant economic power to the next.

Your analogy with religion is also a bad one. China has no native religion and it has shown it can peacefully co-exist with all religions. China doesn't care. Being totally neutral between Christians and Muslims is one of China's greatest assets that few other countries can ever have.

The U.S. followed the old European model of extending influence via military strength. Throughout history, China practiced 'Suzerainty' and that has not changed. It is much more indirect, non-threatening, and well-understood.

The Anglos are fighting back because they want to retain their exulted position a bit longer. By applying maximum pressure, there is a chance that China may fail. Anglos have nothing to lose and everything to gain. So we have the situation today.

There is no sign the non-Anglos are joining. It is clear that China's objective is economic. There is no threat to any country's culture or survival.

This transition period will reach its most volatile in the coming years until China's nominal GDP officially surpasses the U.S. and gradually fade away after 2035 when the outcome is clear to all.

GDP is the most common measure. GDP per capita even better. However, the most accurate is Total National Wealth (summing up the net worth of everyone in China). Somebody posted the most recent paper by Credit Suisse in another thread. I think China is still 1/6? of the U.S. in 2019 (measured in USD, not PPP). That is probably the goal for China 2050. For 2035, 5 to 10 trillion nominal USD (likely India's nominal GDP) ahead of the U.S. GDP will do just fine.

Your last sentence about moon colonies is just too childish to comment. Too much Sci-Fi reading and too narrow minded.
 
O

Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
kentchang said:
Your view is very zero-sum, very wrong, and very pessimistic. This is not a battle. There is no end game. We are simply witnessing the transitioning from one dominant economic power to the next.

Your analogy with religion is also a bad one. China has no native religion and it has shown it can peacefully co-exist with all religions. China doesn't care. Being totally neutral between Christians and Muslims is one of China's greatest assets that few other countries can ever have.

The U.S. followed the old European model of extending influence via military strength. Throughout history, China practiced 'Suzerainty' and that has not changed. It is much more indirect, non-threatening, and well-understood.

The Anglos are fighting back because they want to retain their exulted position a bit longer. By applying maximum pressure, there is a chance that China may fail. Anglos have nothing to lose and everything to gain. So we have the situation today.

There is no sign the non-Anglos are joining. It is clear that China's objective is economic. There is no threat to any country's culture or survival.

This transition period will reach its most volatile in the coming years until China's nominal GDP officially surpasses the U.S. and gradually fade away after 2035 when the outcome is clear to all.

GDP is the most common measure. GDP per capita even better. However, the most accurate is Total National Wealth (summing up the net worth of everyone in China). Somebody posted the most recent paper by Credit Suisse in another thread. I think China is still 1/6? of the U.S. in 2019 (measured in USD, not PPP). That is probably the goal for China 2050. For 2035, 5 to 10 trillion nominal USD (likely India's nominal GDP) ahead of the U.S. GDP will do just fine.

Your last sentence about moon colonies is just too childish to comment. Too much Sci-Fi reading and too narrow minded.
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Because US mindset is zero sum. If your opponent is zero sum what do you do even if you thought is wrong!

Prepare for worst! You have no choice!

Biden recent ICBM test and
China recent middle course interception of ICBM, a nuke defense shield pretty much debunk your theory of sci fi. It's very real threat.

China calling for WHO investigation of US biological weapon lab hinting US released biological weapon on China.

Possible nuke exchange and biological weapon, This is not fantasy , they are real threat.

China recent speed up of space explorations is real, colonizing in moon, outer space is real.
 
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O

Oldschool

Junior Member
Registered Member
China spokes person hua chun ying said xinjiang genocide is a lie and US , Canada and Australia are "real genocide experts" of their natives.
wow, that's no holds bar



THis is clash of civilization what I am talking about. Zero sum. If it has get to this level of fighting. No holds bar
 
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