Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

solarz said:

If the Americans were told this in the 1920s, then I would completely agree with them. However, if they were told this in the 1970s, then they are just ignorant.

China in the 1970s already had triple the literacy rate and double the life expectancy it has 20 years ago. It was already building satellites, submarines and nuclear weapons when it didn't even have an airforce or a navy in 1949.

So far, you have demonstrated a complete ignorance of what made China's rise possible, and failed to provide a single reason beyond population trip justify your contention.

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Actually, here are some of the reasons, beside population, why India is better placed now than China had been in 1971, or even in 1981, to “rise” in the next 30-50 years.

1. india’s literacy rate in 2020 is 74%. Chinese literacy rate in 1971 is uncertain due to the chaos of the culture revolution. But officially Chinese literacy rate did not reach 74% until 1986. The annual growth in India’s literacy rate now is approximately the same as China’s had been between 1980-1990, when China’s overall literacy rate was the similar to India’s today.
2. The per capita productivity of Indian economy in 2020, measured by PPP, and adjusted for inflation is 6 times high than China’s in 1971, and about the same as China’s in 2004.
3. India’s total steel production in 2020 is 120 million tons, this is already second highest in the world. That is about 6 times China’s production in 1970, and about the same as China’s production in 1997. The compounded annual growth rates between 1997 and 2020 have similar to those of China’s over the same period.
4. India’s automobile production in 2020 was 5 million cars, about 25 times that of China’s on 1971, about the the same as China’s in 2004.
5. India’s total electricity generation in 2020 was about 2000TWh. China’s in 1971 is unclear, but China’s electricity generation also did not reach 2000TWh until 2004.
6. In 2020 8% of India’s population have 4 year university degrees. China’s figure in 1971 is unclear, but China did not reach 8% until 2011.

So broadly speaking, India is somewhere between 15 and 35 years behind China by different measures. There are more measures clustering around 15. India is not nearly as far behind as many people in China thinks.

Richard Santos said:

I think most americans would also have exhibited a similar histrionically incredulous reaction, and then guffaw hysterically, if told in 1970 that “even if china doesn’t become the number 2 power in the world in 30-50 years, China would still retain by far the greatest built-in potent to rival America in the long run”.

Some of them would undoubtedly also offer to pretend they didn’t hear it, as a mocking generousity to help those who would suggest such a rediculous thing avoid further embarrassment.

Yet here we are.

History show in the long run, the advantage of a country that by good governance and hard work pulled ahead tend not to be as durable as the urge of a country left behind to exploit all the resource at its disposal to make up the gap.

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I think I've been more baffled by a much much smaller country, South Korea's achievements in almost every aspect (militarywise, e.g. after recently launching a 5 generation KFX fighter jet, they just revealed their Transport Aircraft and CV plan, not to mention its well-known semiconductor industry, automobile, machinery, nuclear power plant, shipbuilding, so-called K-Pop and film industry, all of which supposedly superior to China for that matter) for a country with such a small population, and I don't see any downward or stagnant trend or possibility compared even to a future rising India, but excellence even faced with serious competition from, say China.
(Not a fan of that country though, more like not being satisfied with ourselves, defiantly so, in light of our sheer population alone. Don't know if most common Indian people would share such seemingly simple and only natural feelings?)

Richard Santos said:

Actually, here are some of the reasons, beside population, why India is better placed now than China had been in 1971, or even in 1981, to “rise” in the next 30-50 years.

1. india’s literacy rate in 2020 is 74%. Chinese literacy rate in 1971 is uncertain due to the chaos of the culture revolution. But officially Chinese literacy rate did not reach 74% until 1986. The annual growth in India’s literacy rate now is approximately the same as China’s had been between 1980-1990, when China’s overall literacy rate was the similar to India’s today.
2. The per capita productivity of Indian economy in 2020, measured by PPP, and adjusted for inflation is 6 times high than China’s in 1971, and about the same as China’s in 2004.
3. India’s total steel production in 2020 is 120 million tons, this is already second highest in the world. That is about 6 times China’s production in 1970, and about the same as China’s production in 1997. The compounded annual growth rates between 1997 and 2020 have similar to those of China’s over the same period.
4. India’s automobile production in 2020 was 5 million cars, about 25 times that of China’s on 1971, about the the same as China’s in 2004.
5. India’s total electricity generation in 2020 was about 2000TWh. China’s in 1971 is unclear, but China’s electricity generation also did not reach 2000TWh until 2004.
6. In 2020 8% of India’s population have 4 year university degrees. China’s figure in 1971 is unclear, but China did not reach 8% until 2011.

So broadly speaking, India is somewhere between 15 and 35 years behind China by different measures. There are more measures clustering around 15. India is not nearly as far behind as many people in China thinks.

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Very interesting logic. Why wouldn't you compare China now 2021 to the US in 1970

China's growth and developments from 1990 to 2021 is extremely high and never happened before in the world history. The higher your GDP the more difficult to get the higher economic growth

I don't think India would get the growth and development in 2021 onwards as China had from 1990 to 2020 ..... absolutely no way!

Agree that GDP per capita of India now is roughly equivalent of China's in the very early 2000 ... but that meaningless measure

India lack of many many things that China have, unity is very doubtful too in India. Also democracy in many ways is the the bad thing for India's development ...... India simply not ready for it when so many people there uneducated and easily bribed and bought for a vote

But heyyy, in the last 2000 years. China and India has dominated the world economy, only n the last 150 yrs had changed and now the trend looks like China and India would dominate the world economy again like they have been in the most part of > 2000 yrs world history

antiterror13 said:

Very interesting logic. Why wouldn't you compare China now 2021 to the US in 1970

China's growth and developments from 1990 to 2021 is extremely high and never happened before in the world history. The higher your GDP the more difficult to get the higher economic growth

I don't think India would get the growth and development in 2021 onwards as China had from 2000 to 2020 ..... absolutely no way!

Agree that GDP per capita of India now is roughly equivalent of China's in the very early 2000 ... but that meaningless measure

India lack of many many things that China have, unity is very doubtful too in India. Also democracy in many ways is the the bad thing for India's development ...... India simply not ready for it when so many people there uneducated and easily bribed and bought for a vote

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Again, india is not nearly as badly educated as you think. The percent of population with 4 year college degrees in India is actually quite close to in China. The overall literacy rate in India (74%) is much lower than in China now (97.6%) but it was only 35 years ago when China’s literacy rate first reached 74%.

If you look at the distribution of productivity in China, a region covering China’s eastern seaboard and home to about 30% of China’s population contributes over 80% of China’s productivity. The other 70% of China’s population is far behind the eastern seaboard and contributes little to China’s economic total output. If 50% of that 70% is illiterate, China’s overall economy would hardly notice. The same situation applies to India.

So China’s 97.6% literacy rate is commendable, and it represents an impressive humanistic achievement and gives the CCP bragging rights. But in reality it was not crucial to China’s economic rise. For the same reason, India’s 74% literacy rate is unseemly, and by comparison, it is somewhat embarrassing. But in reality it probably is not a bottleneck to India’s economic growth.

As someone who thinks a democratic form of government is ultimately necessary for a fully developed economy to continue to advance reasonably efficiently, I do agree it is not necessarily the best form of government to enable a partially developed economy to rapidly catch up. But India’s democracy is dying. The government of Modi is sharply authoritarian. It is not unlikely that india will rewrite her constitution in the next 10 years to enshrine a strong, centralized, ethnocentric authoritarian executive. India may not acquire a Chinese style communist party, but she could well acquire right wing authoritarian governing party similar to those which ruled over South Korea and Taiwan when these two states experienced their own extraordinary spurts of growth between 1970-1990.

Speaking of extraordinary spurts of growth, China’s growth rate between 1990 and 2020 was not unprecedented. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan had all managed broadly similar growth rates when they evolved out of rural poverty to industrialization between 1950s and 1980s. What made China’s growth extraordinary boils down to one thing - size of the population. The same growth rate applied over a much larger number of people resulted in an much bigger final product. it is still China’s extraordinary size that turned fast growth into a super power.

Every large high-income country from Britain to China (in a few years) developed through labor intensive manufacturing. With a peak in globalization and the rise of automation, that pathway's closed.

How's India going to develop their economy?

You're going to tell the 50% of the Indian workforce that's illiterate rural peasant farmers to compete in high-end services on the global stage? In a few years, India's high population is going to be a burden, not a boon, when India's teeming populace can't find jobs.

There's a reason why the Chinese government is targeting a lower population.

EtherealSmoke said:

Every large high-income country from Britain to China (in a few years) developed through labor intensive manufacturing. With a peak in globalization and the rise of automation, that pathway's closed.

How's India going to develop their economy?

You're going to tell the 50% of the Indian workforce that's illiterate rural peasant farmers to compete in high-end services on the global stage? In a few years, India's high population is going to be a burden, not a boon, when India's teeming populace can't find jobs.

There's a reason why the Chinese government is targeting a lower population.

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Actually, Chinese government has cause to rue its population policy. This is why couples are now encouraged to have 3 children. Even in information economy, productivity is still ultimately proportional to how many people are producing. Reducing the number of people who are producing creating a towering barrier to increased productivity for the economy overall.

India will develop its economy the same way China did. You think every one of the 97.6% of the Chinese population that are are literate competes in the high-end service on the global stage? Only about 30% of the Chinese population are really tied into the highly developed modern economy of China. The other 70% plays a very subsidiary role in Chinese economy. Maybe in another 30 years they will plug in.

But, india is say 20 year behind China. If it take China another 30 years to plug in its population, that would give india 50 years. At current rate of literacy growth, india too will attain universal literacy in much less than 50 years.

Really why do someone here keeps harping on about india "rise" and please stop comparing India now with China of 20 years ago.

For one China don't openly deficate in the open 20 years ago, with very poor sanitation the likes of not seen in China since the beginning of the CCP rule, nor do China ride on top if the train.

Rest assured China is nothing like India 20 years ago!

Richard Santos said:

Actually, Chinese government has cause to rue its population policy. This is why couples are now encouraged to have 3 children. Even in information economy, productivity is still ultimately proportional to how many people are producing. Reducing the number of people who are producing creating a towering barrier to increased productivity for the economy overall.

India will develop its economy the same way China did. You think every one of the 97.6% of the Chinese population that are are literate competes in the high-end service on the global stage? Only about 30% of the Chinese population are really tied into the highly developed modern economy of China. The other 70% plays a very subsidiary role in Chinese economy. Maybe in another 30 years they will plug in.

But, india is say 20 year behind China. If it take China another 30 years to plug in its population, that would give india 50 years. At current rate of literacy growth, india too will attain universal literacy in much less than 50 years.

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Disagree. We can already see productivity divergences/income inequality in top economies like America. If you look at the data, inflation-adjusted, the average American isn't earning/producing much more than he did 50 years ago. That's with China exporting deflation globally in the form of cheap consumer goods. If you look at inflation in necessary services like housing, education and healthcare, 90% or more of Americans are falling behind, and the trend is only accelerating. American productivity is only really being driven forward by elite workers in sectors like finance and tech. Why else have there been increasing calls for universal basic income and higher taxes for the wealthy in the States?

China's also already looking into the issue with the State Council this week releasing a paper calling for a demonstration zone for income inequality policies in Zhejiang. With increasing technological progress, productivity and wealth flows to the elite few, with most workers being rendered redundant.

India can't develop its economy the same way China and every other industrialized economy did. All other high income countries moved their workers from farms to factories, and then from factories into offices. The intermediate step into manufacturing allowed states to build capital for investment, and allowed uneducated peasants to earn money to upgrade their skills and especially, those of their children.

India is going to miss this step. Without that capital, how are they going to invest to beat the top talent and corporations in the West and East Asia?

india gdp=2,8 tn dollars
whole africa gdp: 2,6 tn dollars
India population=1,4 mld inhabitants
africa populatiun=1,2 mld inhabitants

Please Check its really and sadly (for india nationalists) true.

Gatekeeper said:

Really why do someone here keeps harping on about india "rise" and please stop comparing India now with China of 20 years ago.

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Dunno where the comparison comes from BUT India does have around 26-27 years before its population peaks at 2047-2048. Which is around 20 years from the time China peaks. So if this demographic dividend is to pay off they need to hurry because even if the rate of decline isn't as significant (i.e. no one-child policy), the middle-income trap will still loom large.