From several books I've read on the subject Ronald Reagan envisioned a modernized PLA with M60A3 level tanks and F-16 level fighters as an ideal deterrent force against the Soviet military, although the state of the Chinese economy and technical capabilities seriously impeded developments at the time.
If Cold War did not end, what would US and Soviet navies look like?
- Thread starter F40Racer
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From several books I've read on the subject Ronald Reagan envisioned a modernized PLA with M60A3 level tanks and F-16 level fighters as an ideal deterrent force against the Soviet military, although the state of the Chinese economy and technical capabilities seriously impeded developments at the time.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Like this entire thread, those statements are pure speculation.
However, prior to the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Chinese had received military and technological assistance in many areas from the US, France, and other Western nations. However, once the breakup of the USSR was imminent, there was no longer reason for the West to continue such assistance. The incident on June 4th simply provided a convenient excuse for the West to halt such aid and slam the arms embargo down on China.
Prior to the arms embargo, the United States and China were in the process of developing a fighter aircraft based off the J-7 airframe known as the Super-7, which was going to be powered by an American engine.
The JH-7 was originally designed to use British engines. There are claims that the J-10 was designed to use a Western engine as well, hence the resulting delay in the J-10 program following the arms embargo. Also, the HQ-7 was reverse engineered from the French Crotale during this time.
That's probably true.
A continued Cold War would definitely slow down PLAN's blue water agendas. Instead of refitting one full size carrier and planning for another one, the largest surface combatant China would build before 2020 would probably be a helicopter carrier similar to HMS Ocean, mainly for anti-submarine operations. Soviet subs was a substantial threat to Chinese military and civilian vessels during the 1980's, and that threat would continue to influence PLAN's strategies if USSR did not collapse.
Overall the navy would be much less of a priority, because China would not be as economically developed as it is today, and therefore would have less strategic reason to build its power projection capability and the SLOCs would matter less. Moreover, with the Soviet threat in Siberia and the Maritime Provinces, the Army and Air Force would continue to get the lions share of resouces to prepare for what would have been a truly epic series of land battles, which would inevitably turn nuclear.
So USN/VMF, bigger, PLAN, smaller.
What would the effect of a continued Cold War have been on the formation of the EU and a common European defence policy? Perhaps current developments in that area would have been sped up and NATO would have been augmented/ largely replaced on land by a common EU military force?
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
There is no reason to think that the PRC's economic growth would have been negatively impacted to any degree by a continuation of the Cold War. Remember, economists today point to the the decade between 1979 and 1989 as the key time period during which the foundations for China's economic success was set. The existence of the USSR would not have lessened the West's demand for Chinese goods nor have affected China's ability to secure natural resources.
Militarily, I agree with Finn's assertion that the focus would remain on the land and air components centered on a defense of the Manchurian plains. The navy would primarily have remained as a coastal defense and ASW force.
Militarily, I agree with Finn's assertion that the focus would remain on the land and air components centered on a defense of the Manchurian plains. The navy would primarily have remained as a coastal defense and ASW force.
Navy would be less priority, but maybe not much less. If Cold War continued, there would be at least one full size Soviet carrier (Kuznetsov-class or Ulyanovsk-class) and one Kiev-class "heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser" in the Pacific region, along with many advanced Soviet subs.
By this time China would have a market economy, and shipping lanes would be very important, especially in the South China sea. USSR had sent carrier Minsk down to South China sea before. During the 1980's, the Minsk was considered to be a very big threat.
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williamhou
Junior Member
Quite likely. Probably about two medium or small size carrier with AV-8B and FA-18 on it as well, E-2C and E-3 may well be placed on the north close to walls of HQ-2 sites around Beijing, and HQ-2 are likely replaced by PAC-2,3. J-10 or FC-1 may be cancelled or based on American/European technology, instead they use F-16. Black Hawk would likely be the main army helicopter flying all over the country, since around 20 was already delivered and initial trial was highly satisfactory. Army and Air Force would be priority over Navy to counter USSR, and 094 may be using Trident II missile, JL-2 may never be developed.
Also many other things would have changed significantly, consider butterfly effect.
williamhou
Junior Member
The Minsk is a theme park in Shenzhen, China now :coffee:
