Ideal chinese carrier thread

[Gollevainen]

Well Obiwan, Russians failed IMHO.
First of all, the fact why there werent cats onboard Kuznetsov and Varyag was a due political decission, based on wrong knowledge and false expectations of the capacities of VSTOL planes performance. The plans for the ships were constantly re-thinked and in the orginal conclusion was to have them to operate solely on VSTOL planes, thus the ski-jump. Only later it was found out that theorethically fast and powerfull enough jets can operate from it aslo, so it was a lucky shot....In overal capacity the Whole idea is stil rather dupious and the tactical capacity of such concept raises too much questions to beragarded as succesfull solution...

There never were doupt that Soviets couldn't build catabults on time, they were along in the early stages of the Orel project as well as kuznetsov. The political decission to not to have catabults was made too early, and revisited too late to ready for the ships. It was only with Uljanovsk that cats were to be fitted. But Orginally Kuznetsovs were designed to have the catabults, there are even preliminary scethes available. The arm-wrestling between the conventional aircrafts and VSTOL aircrafts ended up the laters favour.

Soviets had in fact better standing point when they first started to seek carriers than china has now. Soviets just had almoust every possiple political screwups that there could have been poured on them. If china can avoid the ill-knowlidgble political desicions taking it backwards, the time used for the first carrier to roll out would be shorter. There would only be the technological cap which can be eliminated but it doesen't mean they are ready for 93,000 tonner in 2020.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

And didnt I just say that oil tankers arent aircraftcarriers Cultural revolution as well as other elements of inflexibility in chinese military hierarchy are the most important single factors that counts. China is emerging and by industrial and economical level capaple of building big naval units, why not carriers as well, but that just wont be enough. If you would given ten million dollars, would you be able to build ten million dollar ship?? (presuming that you arent shipengineer)

Military strength is invariably reflection of the country industrial base and strength. You can believe me I work in defense industry. Next to our line of military product we have the same line that produce civilian good.We share the same worker the same technology and the same management style

In economical level China of today migth be in better hands than Soviets at their higth, but trust me, China isent even bar with Soviets at their peak as what comes to naval devolpment/heritage/tradition and capacity to produce balanced fleet.

When you pour so much money in defense related industry you got result. If I'm not wrong Russia spend 50% of the goverment spending on the military when her GDP is only 10% of US. Yes you build all kind of fancy weapon but for how long eventually the reality take over and Russia gone bust because her civilian economy is not competitive.
China case is different.For long time there is no urgency to compete with US on the ideological level There is nothing for China to gain for competing with US on the ideological ground

I never believe that technology was the constraint in building Carrier but politic and funding does

China military spending is pegged to 1.5% of GDP or 5% of goverment spending quite modest actually but as the size of Chinese economy grow 1.5% is 45 billion dollar slightly less than France budget Building carrier is expensive because you have take account of support and escort ship to form batttle group. Unless you have urgency you will be hard pressed to justify spending that kind of money when it can be used for other thing

But I believe that in order to allow the new SBN to operate in China sea She need to be protected from the surface ship. and The fact that now China import 50% of all its oil and raw material from overseas China must be able to protect SLOC

Politic is the other consideration because carrier is an offensive weapon It might unnerve the neighboring country and for long time China follow the dictum of DXP to bide for time and never to antagonize the US But I believe the new leadership is confident enough and feel that there is nothing to gain to please the US as Us is going to contain China anyway and kept selling offensive weapon to Taiwan So what the point of restraining yourself.

And still Russia failed... And Im not saying that China will fail, quite contrary, as soon as china gets carrier, the better, no matter how lousy desing it pics. The years of neglegt needs to be taken up, and no time is to be wasted anymore, but the crude fact is that Chinese military shipbuilding isent on that level that It can produce those things that the dupious article promises

This is your personal opinion nothing more and nothing less

 

[Jeff Head]

I don't see what cultural revolution got to do with building a carrier Yes China lost years in technical development during the cultural revolution.

You answered you own question in that sentence. Losing those years of technical development, and not having the funds available, has meant that their overall naval shipbuilding in general, including carrier development aspirations, are much further behind than they otherwise might have been. I believe that was part of Goll's point.

And it built sophisticated ship like LNG carrier and Supertanker

As sophisticated and nice as they are, as phenominal as even the naval shipbuilding that the PLAN is now accomplishing, still, they are not super carriers and the PRC in general and the PLAN specifically are going to have to spend a lot of years to get that specific level of expertise right. It is clear, with the Varyag and their other projects, that they are not only determined to do so, but that they have started.

I believe your prejudice got the better of yourself because russia failed doesn't mean China has to fail too It has no correlation at all.

Two tings, 1st, Goll is not being prejudiced, he is just being realistic and pragmatic. Try and look at it from that perspective and it will be easier for everyone involved, IMHO, to avoid hard feelings or arguement as opposed to rational and reasonable discussion.

2nd, it is likely that if the PLAN goes down the same path that the Soviets did, using the same equipment they they used, there is good possibility that if they are not careful theywill get similar results.

That may be ok for them. The PLAN may not have the same goals and operations in mind for its carriers as the US does with super carriers.

On the other hand, if the PLAN is using the old soviet hardware models to learn from, and then improve upon (which is what I believe they will do), then you will see the Varyag come out and test and train so that the PLAN gets expertise and operational experience over then 4-6 years following the Varyag's launch.

Then, and the folloing is purely based on my own best guess, 4-6 years after that, you will see the PLAN build a couple of CTOL carriers (meaning with some form of cat) to take advantage of that learning. Probably in the 50-60,000 ton range. After that, now with three opertional carriers, another 6 years and perhaps you will see a large carrie like the spoken of here...but that is now in the 2020 or later time frame.

It's going to take at least that long IMHO to develop a firm and successful maritime strategy based on the use of carrier groups according to whatever operating parameteres the PLAN comes up with.

In the mean time, her neighbors will not sit still. I expect to see the ROK and the Japanese field their own Sea Control carriers during the same time frame...and perhaps even Australia by that time will get back in the mix...not to mention where India will be at that point with three large carriers of their own.

 

[tphuang]

China's shipbuilding industry is not sophisticated. It's very good at building cheap, low profit and small ships. It's finally moving into building VLCCs, but they are still way behind the South Koreans in LNG carriers. We don't even need to get into luxurious cruisers and such. While China is not the bottom feeder (I think Vietnam is), it's definitely in the low end of the shipbuilding industry in terms of the vessels that it's building. Of course, the fact that it has cornered out 25% of the world market allowed it to improve its technology, ship designing capability and workmanship. But let's be clear here, ships are being built in China, because Chinese labour is cheap, not because other countries can't build them. Of course, most of us predict something in the Varyag size using conventional power and steam catapult for the first carrier. And even that is a huge step for China considering the biggest thing they built so far is 071. I was pretty much laughing when I read the stuff about 93K tonne carrier that's equivalent to Nimitz class.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

China's shipbuilding industry is not sophisticated. It's very good at building cheap, low profit and small ships. It's finally moving into building VLCCs, but they are still way behind the South Koreans in LNG carriers. We don't even need to get into luxurious cruisers and such. While China is not the bottom feeder (I think Vietnam is), it's definitely in the low end of the shipbuilding industry in terms of the vessels that it's building. Of course, the fact that it has cornered out 25% of the world market allowed it to improve its technology, ship designing capability and workmanship. But let's be clear here, ships are being built in China, because Chinese labour is cheap, not because other countries can't build them. Of course, most of us predict something in the Varyag size using conventional power and steam catapult for the first carrier. And even that is a huge step for China considering the biggest thing they built so far is 071. I was pretty much laughing when I read the stuff about 93K tonne carrier that's equivalent to Nimitz class.

What you mean by behind korea in LNG yes in term of tonnage sold to the world market but Do you know the inside out of the specification for the new LNG that they build now or it is just your own opinion?

As some one who also work in process industry there is no such thing as backward when you have to refrigerate natural gas to liquid form The steel will easily break up in such low temperature You need all kind of postweld heat treatment and work with exotic alloy

Here it is from the horses mouth itself you be the judge

China confirmed the first carrier

in Hong Kong on March 17, 2007 proved to be the first carrier in China Daily,

Zhang Yunchuan : Based made preparations for the smooth [Daily -- An experts : Regarding recent U.S. intelligence showed there were rumors that China is making self-carrier, Zhang Yunchuan, director of Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense confirmed the news yesterday that it is studying options, based on the self-construction. And large aircraft research and manufacturing, will also start soon.

This is the first foreign military aircraft carrier to recognize their construction plans. Zhang Yunchuan said that the central government is considering the construction of aircraft carriers, and based on their manufacture, and the old rumor is not the carrier for technological transformation. He disclosed that preparations are under way for the carrier to create, but take a very long time, but the current preparatory work smoothly.

Many technical problems have been overcome. Central has not yet determined to build the ships, said Zhang Yunchuan, if determined to believe that the Central Construction aircraft technology have absolute confidence in the industrial sector. will make every effort to complete the project. Earlier this with the Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense spokesman Huang Qiang revealed that China has the ability to manufacture aircraft carrier speech the same.

In addition, it has attracted attention within and outside the country on behalf of the competitiveness of the project, the development of high ground. Zhang Yunchuan said that the aircraft research projects will soon enter the stage started.

According to earlier news, the research is very difficult, the cycle will be longer. China's large aircraft will be a special inter-estimated two to three five-year plan, and preliminary work is otherwise solid and the key to success.

 

[tphuang]

What you mean by behind korea in LNG yes in term of tonnage sold to the world market but Do you know the inside out of the specification for the new LNG that they build now or it is just your own opinion?

As some one who also work in process industry there is no such thing as backward when you have to refrigerate natural gas to liquid form The steel will easily break up in such low temperature You need all kind of postweld heat treatment and work with exotic alloy

What I use is something that you seem to have very little of. That is called common sense. You gotta crawl before you can walk. To think China is anything but years behind the South Koreans in LNG construction is just fantasy. South Koreans consistently deliver LNG time and in good quality. China, the best we've done is one LNG carrier. It's a big step, but there is still plenty of work to do.

Your article doesn't prove anything about the nuclear carrier.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

What I use is something that you seem to have very little of. That is called common sense. You gotta crawl before you can walk. To think China is anything but years behind the South Koreans in LNG construction is just fantasy. South Koreans consistently deliver LNG time and in good quality. China, the best we've done is one LNG carrier. It's a big step, but there is still plenty of work to do.

Your article doesn't prove anything about the nuclear carrier.

what common sense got to do with achieving technical goal You either meet your technical specification or you don't there is nothing halfway In every technical endeavour you have to satisfy test I believe the same thing happend with ship to You went for a shake down cruise and see if you meet the performance spec as to speed, endurance, fuel economy, working sensor and reliability. Irrespective whether you built one or a dozen

I believe you make those comment out of your inferiority complex that anything that South Korea built must be better than China

I am not here to prove anything What I'm saying is this is semi official acknowledgement that China is considering building a carrier and not some fanboy fertile imagination COSTIND is organ of China defense industry. China daily is the mouthpiece of CCCP

 

[Jeff Head]

this is semi official acknowledgement that China is considering building a carrier

Read that very carefully and tell me exactly what specifics it gives.

Semi-official consideration is not anything specific or firm whatsoever.

Look, most of us here believe that the PLAN is going to launch the Varyag. They have put too much study, too much time, too much money, and too much work into her and over the last few years she has made steady progress.

Most also believe that after training and learning with her that the PLAN will then build its own indeginous carriers within the next 6-8 years...probably two of them.

I believe we are really saying pretty much the same thing in principle regarding these points.

But, a PLAN, nuclear, 93,000 ton aircraft carrier, it if materializes, is something most of us believe could only come after all of that occurs. Several of the people you have been dialoging with on this thread have years of experience with aircraft carriers...both practical experience at sea sailing and maintaining them and engineering/design experience.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Look, most of us here believe that the PLAN is going to launch the Varyag. They have put too much study, too much time, too much money, and too much work into her and over the last few years she has made steady progress.

Most also believe that after training and learning with her that the PLAN will then build its own indeginous carriers within the next 6-8 years...probably two of them.

I believe we are really saying pretty much the same thing in principle regarding these points.

I don't believe Variag is what he meant I think he is talking of building 48000 ton domestic design maybe based on Variag I call it it semi official because the Statement was given in the course of impromptu interview with Hongkong newspaper and he said approval has not been granted by the goverment to build the ships and He also said that all technical hurdles has been overcome

But, a PLAN, nuclear, 93,000 ton aircraft carrier, it if materializes, is something most of us believe could only come after all of that occurs. Several of the people you have been dialoging with on this thread have years of experience with aircraft carriers...both practical experience at sea sailing and maintaining them and engineering/design experience.

Of course he is not saying that they will build it tomorrow he is talking of 2020 time frame So I was surprised why people ridicule they idea that China can build a 93000 ton ship within 20 years from now.

Considering such a progress that they show sofar anything can happened in 20 years and It is from a country that a send man to the space and has it own ballistic missile and the fastest economy in the world. and robust defense industry

So I would say it is within china's technical reach to do it

 

[Jeff Head]

Of course he is not saying that they will build it tomorrow he is talking of 2020 time frame So I was surprised why people ridicule they idea that China can build a 93000 ton ship within 20 years from now.

Considering such a progress that they show sofar anything can happened in 20 years and It is from a country that a send man to the space and has it own ballistic missile and the fastest economy in the world. and robust defense industry

So I would say it is within china's technical reach to do it

Well, 2020 is only 13 years from now, not 20. In 2027, which is twenty years from now a 93,000 ton nuclear carrier is possible for the PLAN IMHO. But as of today, the Varyag is not complete yet. Most of us believe the PLAN, if they do it at all at that point, may start building such a project in the 2020 time frame...but time will tell.