Supposingly PLAN got it's first CV, and the first CBG is formed, lets name this PLAN 1st CBG... on the CV have 20 plus J-11B and a couple of WZ-10, what 1st CBG lacks is still AWACS capability. The ZJ-2000 is heavy to be loaded onto the medium CV!!!
Nah we have to consider that the there is no PLAN CV. But if there was, then it'd obviously act in concert with a large naval presence which may aid PLAAF with naval aviation and various ship/sub cruise missiles.
So I supposed in this scenario, the Chinese Aegis will act as AWACS for the CV and will be the anti-air, anti-ship and anti-sub roles as well as launching cruise missiles on the country X's air defense sites. Cruise missiles frigate like 'Taizhou' would also be useful in attacking X's air defense installations as well as important ground targets. After first missile strike, J-11Bs and WZ-10s will be launched for search and destroyed mission on remants of X's ground forces.
In this scenario, the time frame to reach from PLAN's Sanya base to X is around 2 weeks which as around the same time for current PLAN escort task force to reach Gulf of Eden. It's too long and far from supply bases.
However, if PLAN has a base oversea, that would change the game around.
Let's assume that Pakistan have lended the PLA both an airbase and a port, but also let's keep it during current time and without major PLAN involvement apart from maybe blocking shipping.
What about the middle eastern nation's navy? If the Chinese only had a few destroyers and frigates in that area, wouldn't they be sitting duck for the middle eastern nation's navy and anti-shipping units too. Unless this scenario also take away those.
Country X has only a comparable military to the current Libyan military (maybe add a few more advanced aircraft and SAM battery or two). Whatever PLAN presence there is, I'd assume them to be quite far from the coast beyond shore based anti ship missiles and what patrol craft and few frigates Country X's navy has.
And even then, KJ-200 or KJ-2000 operating from a country like Pakistan should be able to detect missiles and ships from a distance away.
Plus what about the allies of this nation? any other resources that the CHinese can pull or fall back on. Look to Libya, as strong as the western forces are, they still needed a place to land and reload, rearm, etc... and that place is Italy.
Let's change the geographical location of Country X from Northern Africa to Eastern Africa, around Somalia for discussion's sake. If Country X was around Libya then they may well need basing from a country like Iran and I'm not sure China would be willing to go quite that low.
As for Country X's allies, the premise of this NFZ is that they've been commiting your garden variety human rights violations, democracy stuff yada yada and are therefore politically isolated, but also threaten a proportion of Chinese economic interests like businesses and previous deals made with Country X.
If the Country X resided in East Africa/around Somalia, then Pakistan bases should be sufficiently capable of sustaining a PLAAF presence over Country X.
What would CHina has? Even if she had one CV, would that be enough?
I listed a number of assets before, which I'm now revising up a bit.
Air:
24 J-10s (number could be revised down as more of Country X's airbases and anti air sites get shut down. Precision strike/ DEAD role is possible?)
12 J-11s
12 JH-7/As (initial DEAD phase, for launching various PGMs, KD-88 and other shorter ranged cruise missiles)
6-12 H-6Ms (initial DEAD phase, launching stand off CJ-10Ks at high value targets in conjunction with JH-7s, J-10s and maybe naval assets like SSNs)
1-2 KJ-200 and/or 1-2 KJ-2000 for constant 24 patrol. If they have a provision for air refuelling then that'd be even better.
Half of the PLAAFs H-6 tanker fleet at least, though they might hurriedly convert a number of H-6s in a short space of time to respond to the extra need. PLAAF might be able to convince the PAF to lend their Il-78s to the cause. Modifications to the drogue will need to be made though probably.
6+ various Y-8GX mpa, sigint, elint, ecm, psychological warfare aircraft. These will probalby be deployed days if not weeks before the actual fighting begins.
A few other less notable surveillance aircraft like the converted Tu-154 and latest J-8FR recon planes.
However many Y-8s and Il-76s required to transport the material from China to a forward base in Pakistan.
Naval:
2+ 054A
2+ destroyers of any kind (052C might be able to carry a maximum of 8 DH-10s/LACMs but that'll take the place of all YJ-62s)
1 or 2 supply ships
1 or 2 SSNs (I think tphuang said he believed PLAN SSNs have made operations to indian ocean or aden before, it would be a small stretch on capabilities to go further to around somalia. They would be able to contribute with the fighting from DH-10s launched from torpedo tubes. I have no idea how many they can carry though)
If we include a CV, then add one more supply ship and an extra couple of 054As or a destroyer in a cvbg. That would effectively take a third or a half of the current PLANs modern force at one time.
But I think it'd be best if we don't include a CV, because it'll be a while until it can be operated effectively enough to actually go into battle, and the aircraft they can deploy won't add to the numbers and capability that much, if we consider that they probably won't be able to carry full fuel and payload from a ski jump (assuming the CV in question is Varyag, and/or the future PLAN CV has ski jump instead of catapults, which most people seem to believe now).
