Hypothetical PLAAF No Fly Zone

Blitzo

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With the whole Libya fiasco going down, I began to think how the PLAAF would approach a no fly zone over a distant country. Obviously the PLAN has had some experience in blue water operations and recent events have shown that China is willing to use military assets to protect their people... even if it's only a frigate escorting transport ships.

In the future, perhaps distant perhaps near, the PLAAF will probably be called on to enforce a no fly zone over a distant country with which there is turmoil directly threatening the PRC's interests.

For the basis of this scenario, first let's pretend the UN has passed a resolution for a no fly zone against country X -- the western nations abstained, while China and Russia and a few others have voted "for the motion. Basically, this is a scenario which the west will not work against China.
The country will be a hypothetical middle east/african country with a land mass similar to Libya, with a slightly more capable air force and SAM technology. Say, early build Mig-29s/F-16s and early S-300 batteries, but all these in limited numbers. And we'll throw in one large AWACS platform like cold war era A-50 or E-3, or a few early E-2s to make things more interesting.
Russia and Pakistan may provide indirect support in terms of basing and maybe logistics.
Rules of engagement will be similar to what the British and French aircraft will have later when they're against Libya, which will prolly be something like "dont shoot unless you're shot at" -- so purely reactive.
Country X is determined to fight against the no fly zone.

The PLAAF we are talking about is the current force mixture, so no J-20, no Y-20 or such.

With all this set in place, how well do you guys think the PLAAF will perform, what aircraft (not just fighters, remember) will they deploy, what kind of sortie rates can they muster up, etc?
 

tanlixiang28776

Junior Member
Well using airfrorce by itself would be pretty stupid. Use of cruise missiles would need to destroy SAMs and airfields if a easy victory is required. Early build F 16s and Mig 29s would be no match for later build J10Bs or J 11Bs along with AWACs support and Electronic warfare platforms.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Purely on roles and capabilities, here are the aircraft and vessels involved in a no-fly zone.

1. Type 051C or Type 051D destroyer: this is larger than the Type 052D, so it can endure longer while carrying the same amount of advanced weapons (96 VLS). These are specifically designed for long-range air defense and is able to shoot down enemy aircraft before the pilot knows what's happening

2. J-10A/B: This is a typical air-defense fighter that has superb maneuverability, AESA (for J-10B), and thrust vectoring. Perfect for air defense.

3. J-11B/J-15/J-18/J-19: These are all perfect for long-range interception and/or strikes. Carrier-based J-15 and J-18 will provide naval roles.
 

Blitzo

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^ Remember, this is with the PLAAF (and maybe PLAN if we want, but let's pretend it's just PLAAF at the moment) at the current time. With a force composition as it is right now, today.

J-10B obviously isn't in service yet (or if it is it would be in the very early stages) so there's no way they would be deployed anywhere.

A good portion of the PLAAFs H-6 tankers would probably be deployed to support J-10s... I wonder aircraft like the JH-7A have a space for a quick-attach refueling probe...

And there are other EW aircraft of the PLAAF which would probably be forward deployed to monitor radar stations of country x, and not to mention the transport aircraft which would have to carry personnel and equipment from China to a forward base in either Pakistan or somewhere in Russia...

(PS: Sinosoldier, dude there is no 052D destroyer so it's a bit strange to say a ship is larger than something which doesn't exist. And 051C is smaller than 052C anyway... you realize 051C is the crappy ship with the S-300 sam and only one ESA radar right? And there's no evidence of J-10A or J-10B having TVC of any kind...)
(PPS: Sinosoldier, are you the same person as Segregator 236 on youtube?)
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
^ Remember, this is with the PLAAF (and maybe PLAN if we want, but let's pretend it's just PLAAF at the moment) at the current time. With a force composition as it is right now, today.

J-10B obviously isn't in service yet (or if it is it would be in the very early stages) so there's no way they would be deployed anywhere.

A good portion of the PLAAFs H-6 tankers would probably be deployed to support J-10s... I wonder aircraft like the JH-7A have a space for a quick-attach refueling probe...

And there are other EW aircraft of the PLAAF which would probably be forward deployed to monitor radar stations of country x, and not to mention the transport aircraft which would have to carry personnel and equipment from China to a forward base in either Pakistan or somewhere in Russia...

(PS: Sinosoldier, dude there is no 052D destroyer so it's a bit strange to say a ship is larger than something which doesn't exist. And 051C is smaller than 052C anyway... you realize 051C is the crappy ship with the S-300 sam and only one ESA radar right? And there's no evidence of J-10A or J-10B having TVC of any kind...)
(PPS: Sinosoldier, are you the same person as Segregator 236 on youtube?)

A no-fly-zone mission for PLA will most likely take place in the future, so I am basing the equipment deployment on that.

Type 052D and Type 051D are confirmed projects which will launch in the next few years. Since a no-fly-zone mission for PLA will take place in the future, it is logical to use equipment that will enter service in the near future. Military insiders at CJDBY also say the Type 052D will be equipped with an anti-missile/anti-air laser weapon.

Type 051C is still a long-range air defense system, with ESA and the S-300 VLS-launched missiles. By any standards it is a more effective destroyer than most PLA-N and Russian destroyers. The S-300FN is also comparable to the HQ-9 and is to date a very powerful missile. It, like the Type 052C, has the nickname "Chinese AEGIS".

I never said J-10A has TVC. J-10B, from what we know, will be equipped with WS-15 engines or WS-10G engines, both of which incorporate 2D thrust vectoring.

I don't use YouTube.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
AS OF NOW:

The current (as of this hour, today) equipment that might be used in a no-fly-zone would be:

1. J-10A/J-10B (yes, the J-10B has entered initial batch service): this will be an effective air defense fighter (especially the 4.5+ generation J-10B), perfect for air-to-air combats, BVR interceptions, or SEAD roles.

2. J-11B: This will be the heavy interceptor, with powerful radar, maneuverability, and pure power. It is also 8 times stealthier than the average Flanker. It will also be equipped with AESA very soon. There is also a rumor that a thrust vectoring engine has been tested on the J-11B.

3. JH-7A: This, with its jamming pods, could perform ECM operations as well as SEAD operations (loaded with YJ-91 missiles or YJ-12 missiles).

4. Type 051C/Type 052C destroyer: long-range air defense destroyers, capable of carrying state-of-the-art missiles and radar.
 

Blitzo

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Yes but we don't know what the future will be like, so let's keep this scenario in the present day, now? I mean I even specifically said this hypothetical scenario is set in the present day with the present force structure.

051C is an alright ship, but it only has one ESA radar that leaves half the ship exposed, which is about all it's good for -- keeping coverage for its rear. It doesn't even have a hangar and only holds 8 YJ-83...

As for the 052D... who knows. Either way it'll be best to stop saying so definitively that it exists.

We have no idea what engine J-10B will use... it could be russian for all we know and where have we seen WS-15 or this supposed "WS-10G" with TVC of any kind at all?
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
Do you guys think US + Nato + Japan + Korea + Taiwan + India + Russia would be capable to declare "No FLY ZONE" inside CHina ? ... I know it is non sense ... we are just talking about capability no politic
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Yes but we don't know what the future will be like, so let's keep this scenario in the present day, now? I mean I even specifically said this hypothetical scenario is set in the present day with the present force structure.

051C is an alright ship, but it only has one ESA radar that leaves half the ship exposed, which is about all it's good for -- keeping coverage for its rear. It doesn't even have a hangar and only holds 8 YJ-83...

As for the 052D... who knows. Either way it'll be best to stop saying so definitively that it exists.

We have no idea what engine J-10B will use... and where have we seen WS-15 or this supposed "WS-10G" with TVC of any kind at all?

A "no fly zone" means that aircraft won't take off. Having YJ-83 missiles and AESA radar doesn't relate to that. Establishing a "no fly zone" means that all threats to ground- and sea-based have already been eliminated by cruise missiles (such as the CJ-10 or DH-10) and/or bombs.

Type 051C is sufficient for air defense operations. Having one AESA radar is more than sufficient to suppress enemy air forces, especially with the ship's powerful countermeasures.

A newer upgraded version of the Type 052C (called the Type 052C+) has been recently launched. It features a completely new electronics suite and possibly radar. The Type 052C+ is also said to have 64 VLS launchers. Four Type 052C+ destroyers will be built by this year.

Type 052D and Type 051D are confirmed projects and have been expected for a long time. The question is when it will enter service and in what numbers.

The WS-10G engine are the engines used on the J-20 prototype. It features stealthy jagged nozzles and radar-absorbent tiles.
The WS-15 engine made its first test in 2010 and is expected to power the J-20 production aircraft and possibly the J-10B. It is more powerful than the F-119 engine with a maximum afterburning thrust of 190 kN.

Oh, you thought I was segregator 236 because of the photo, right? It's very popular on the internet right now.
 

Blitzo

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Do you guys think US + Nato + Japan + Korea + Taiwan + India + Russia would be capable to declare "No FLY ZONE" inside CHina ? ... I know it is non sense ... we are just talking about capability no politic

Sure, if they really wanted to they could. No question about it. any country vs the world will have to lose to the world, even the US.

AS OF NOW:

The current (as of this hour, today) equipment that might be used in a no-fly-zone would be:

1. J-10A/J-10B (yes, the J-10B has entered initial batch service): this will be an effective air defense fighter (especially the 4.5+ generation J-10B), perfect for air-to-air combats, BVR interceptions, or SEAD roles.

2. J-11B: This will be the heavy interceptor, with powerful radar, maneuverability, and pure power. It is also 8 times stealthier than the average Flanker. It will also be equipped with AESA very soon. There is also a rumor that a thrust vectoring engine has been tested on the J-11B.

3. JH-7A: This, with its jamming pods, could perform ECM operations as well as SEAD operations (loaded with YJ-91 missiles or YJ-12 missiles).

4. Type 051C/Type 052C destroyer: long-range air defense destroyers, capable of carrying state-of-the-art missiles and radar.

I don't disagree with those choices, but your reasoning is a bit off. I mean what does "state of the art" mean in relation to the roles they're meant to perform. It sounds like it's from a lockheed brochure or something...

Keep in mind what aircraft that are being deployed against country x, it must not degrade the PLAAFs capabilities too much at home.

Against a country like Libya, I think two dozen J-10As, an equal number of JH-7s, and a dozen flankers of any variant should be enough, while not draining the PLAAF capability at home too much. In addition, a number of H-6Ms, capable of carrying CJ-10K missiles and other smaller cruise missiles should also join the fleet to assist in precision bombing of radar and SAM stations if it ever comes to that. (I'm not including H-6Ks because they've only been in service for a few months and are probably not combat ready, and it's a similar situation for J-10Bs and we don't even know if they've entered service at all...)

Before any combat aircraft are deployed, a number of Y-8 GX type aircraft should fly around country x's airspace in ELINT and SIGINT roles, though how useful they'd be during a relatively small duration of time is unknown. Regardless a number of Y-8 GX aircraft should have constant patrol providing EW support and command and control.

In terms of AWACS, a round the clock patrol will need a good number of KJ-200s and/or KJ-2000s. If the PLAN are deploying in support then maybe 052C can assist in the early warning role with their powerful aesas. Also we have to factor in whether the AWACS have provision for aerial refuelling from H-6Us, which would extend their endurance a bit.

On that note, the PLAAF will probably have to give up a good fraction of its tanker and transport fleet for this kind of operation, and I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to convert larger numbers of H-6 during the period this "crisis" goes on for.

A "no fly zone" means that aircraft won't take off. Having YJ-83 missiles and AESA radar doesn't relate to that. Establishing a "no fly zone" means that all threats to ground- and sea-based have already been eliminated by cruise missiles (such as the CJ-10 or DH-10) and/or bombs.

Regarding the YJ-83 comment, I was saying that the 051C isn't that a great ship, when you said before that the 051C and 051D (I don't know what the hell an 051D is... I see no reason why the PLAN would be so desperate to fall back and develop a new destroyer using steam turbines either.

Type 051C is sufficient for air defense operations. Having one AESA radar is more than sufficient to suppress enemy air forces, especially with the ship's powerful countermeasures.

Didn't you just say AESAs didn't relate to no fly zones? And having one radar that faces backwards, giving only 180 degree coverage is pretty substandard if you ask me.

A newer upgraded version of the Type 052C (called the Type 052C+) has been recently launched. It features a completely new electronics suite and possibly radar. The Type 052C+ is also said to have 64 VLS launchers. Four Type 052C+ destroyers will be built by this year.

... Really? From everythign we've seen the 052C+ looks very similar to the 052C before. It might have made some adjustments to the electronics and interior but overall it looks the same and there's nothing to suggest more VLS cells either.

Type 052D and Type 051D are confirmed projects and have been expected for a long time. The question is when it will enter service and in what numbers.

I think the whole 051D thing started at Sinodefence.com where there was a sentence saying something about an "051D"... Nothing's materialized and there's no reason for PLAN to fall back to steam turbine technology. We've been expecting 052D, yes, for many years. We thought this latest batch of 052C/052C+ were going to be 052D but we're obviously wrong. Now people are saying once again that the real 052D will be expected in a few years, which I don't dispute. The real question is how much of an upgrade it is compared ot the 052C.

The WS-10G engine are the engines used on the J-20 prototype. It features stealthy jagged nozzles and radar-absorbent tiles.

There's a bit of controversy over what engines powered the J-20 prototype. We identified one as Al-31, and then the other which people are calling the "WS-10G"... Some believe the latter could just be a modified Al-31. I don't believe either claim at the moment.
And there's nothing which suggests this engine will be used on the J-10B, and nothing definitive to suggest it actually exists yet either.

The WS-15 engine made its first test in 2010 and is expected to power the J-20 production aircraft and possibly the J-10B. It is more powerful than the F-119 engine with a maximum afterburning thrust of 190 kN.

WS-15 is expected to power the J-20, yes I know. But it won't become available until 2015 in the most optimistic scenario... Do you think J-10Bs will only come into production beyond 2015?

Oh, you thought I was segregator 236 because of the photo, right? It's very popular on the internet right now.

No I thought you were segregator 236 because you said you'd asked huitong on the whole J-11BS precision strike thing a few weeks ago, and when I went onto huitong's site I saw a guy called "Bill" there who asked the questions you said you asked. And I know segregator 236's real name is bill, and he seemed to also hold similar stances on the PLAAF and PLA as you do (JH-7B, under development projects and descriptions of aircraft)... so two and two made four.
But if you're not segregator 236 then my apologies.
 
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