Hypothetical Chinese military intervetion in Syria

Jura said:

dude, Lezt didn't talk Genocide maybe you should check his preceding post

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Really? Think about it. Civilians will outnumber military by a very large margin. If you choke off civilian traffic, you chock off these people's livelihood. Access of water is even worse -- you need to account for herd and farm animals as well. So if you don't want humanitarian disaster, you need to feed and supply these people, and your logistical resources are not likely to be sufficient, and you do need to protect the supply convoy, which may be subject to attacks. If you supply by air, you may not have enough capacity and it will get very expansive. As to quarantine, good luck telling that to children and desperate people. Essentially, this scheme have the same disadvantage as land mines.

So what do you do? You can round up the civilians and put than the concentration camps. Of course people are going to get pissed. So when you leave, revolt will be even worse.

Now, you still think a purely technological clean solution is feasible?

t2contra said:

The legal issues as posted by Jura here https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/isis-isil-conflict-in-iraq-syria-news-thread.t6913/page-157#post-366796 could be some of the reasons to deter China. Those are issues that need to be sorted out.

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That's just a load of made up BS legal excuses, and I don't think China could care any less what some haters in America thinks.

It has been suspected right from the start that the gas attacks were false flag operations, and as the world becomes more and more familiar with ISIS, the harder it is to still maintain the illusion that Assad was responsible.

If anyone should be tried for aiding and abetting war crimes, it should be ISIS' backers and sponsors, not those fighting this monster.

Even if you disregard all reason and logic, there is simply no court that can hear this case and pass any meaningful sentence.

Its a toothless and meaningless threat who's only value is PR, and even that value would be highly debatable. Any court who hears this case will end up doing far more damage to its own reputation than anyone they are accusing.

Lezt said:

Automated fortresses are cheap and replaceable, and a network of ~8000 of them will effectively cease all unauthorized movement. it might cost 200K-300K USD to make and deploy one, or around 2.4B USD to deploy, say, for the cost of 24 F35, isnt it a good deal?

Daesh will require heavy weapons to destroy the fortresses, say 105mm recoiless cannons or 200 mm rockets. So the question becomes, how easy it is to detect some men carrying a recoilless rifle on foot, or how fast/long can they run with the a 50 kg rocket? and even if they manage to hit one fort and so it be destroyed, can they survive the barrage of fire from the neighboring forts and the marauding UAV?

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Actually, it's not that difficult to destroy this automatic fortress. Simply dig a open trench under line of sight from the fortress -- you can get close enough, or even go under the fortress by tunnel. It's classic siege tactics.

I think all talk of automated turret forts are too far fetch, and American, to be used by the PLA.

The PLA has an unparalleled history of both waging and countering insurgency warfare.

It won China through insurgency and guerrilla warfare, and then systematically defeated every single attempt by the Nationalists and the CIA to ferment unrest and revolution inside China.

The PLA knows insurgency warfare like no one else, and I think if they were to seriously deploy within Syria, they would be able to root out ISIS far more successfully than anyone else.

They key to insurgency and counter-insurgency operations is the support of the local people.

Automated terminator style killerbots won't do that. You need boots and smiling faces on the ground.

The irony is that the west knows this too, but just doesn't have the stomach to take the kind of losses it is required to root out an insurgency.

However, I think ISIS has almost done their enemies a favour with their brutality. The people are too scared of ISIS to stand up to them, that makes it more likely, not less, that they will turn informant on ISIS as soon as given the chance.

Given how they operate, I think ISIS will have a very hard time trying to fight an insurgency war, since all local populations either all hate their guts or have all fled when they took over a place.

plawolf said:

The irony is that the west knows this too, but just doesn't have the stomach to take the kind of losses it is required to root out an insurgency.

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After nearly a decade of operations both in Iraq and Afghanistan I don't think too many Americans could deal such another long and highly expensive operations in the Middle East after seeing so many brave Vets coming home either dead, suffering from PTSD, hard time finding jobs after their tour is over, marital problems, suicide, and some became homeless (yes even former officers and NCOs).

plawolf said:

Well, I think is an open secret who supports ISIS....

... ... I seriously doubt there is a single ISIS fighter alive without innocent blood on his/her hands.

... ... All those public murders and executions are as much about testing and indoctrinating their troops as it is about killing or sending messages to the survivors/outside world.

When you deliberately brutalise and kill an innocent civilian, you stop being a soldier.

Anyone who refuses would likely find themselves in front of the firing squad rather than in it in pretty quick order or find himself with a suicide vest on the next time ISIS needs something blown up.

You also need to consider the practical considerations. You will need to house these guys somewhere, and it could be years or decades before you can try them all. ... ...

Witnesses and evidence is going to be a massive problem, as ISIS has the nasty habit of killing everyone and leaving no survivors to finger the killers. The refugee crisis means any survivors and witnesses are going to be scattered into the wind all over the world, so tracking them down is going to be hell.

Basically, no matter what China does with ISIS prisoners, it is going to get the blame for it and get accused of everything anyone could think off anyways.

As such, the best solution is to not even try to give them a trial.

Simply establish the nationality of ISIS prisoners and send them back to their home countries for them to sort it all out.

Log the biometric data for all such prisoners and make it abundantly clear that if any of them are caught so much as taking a flight transfer through Syria or China they will be line up against a wall and shot.

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Firstly, this is some street talk ... ... a few people have suggested to all who want to listen -- how to prevent ISIS from ever showing up again ... ...
before someone send ISIS terrorists back to their home countries, you need to mark them permanently and biometrically the low-tech-way by amputating their dominant hand and feet and ear. If they are infected, just pour 99% pure alcohol.

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... ... back to the logistical drawn-out quagmire ... ....

Secondly, I am no expert, therefore please feel free to correct me if I do not make any sense or wrong ... ...

IMHO, let's apply the power of Internet-of-Things and Machine-to-Machine to
much reduce the logistical drawn-out quagmire ... ...

#1 Goal: Iran and Iraq both of them explicitly declaring to all Muslim world that they are getting involved to exterminate ISIS once and for all.

#2 Goal: is to declare No-Fly-Zone and explicitly tell you-know-who and their cronies to stand down and do not get involved, and remind you-know-who that there is no excuse to use old Syria map or any other old map to bomb anyone.

The bombing of Belgrade Chinese embassy can only happen one time only.

If you-know-who is itching to get involved, then .
they can bomb ISIS training ground in Turkey and Uighur training ground in US.


#3 Goal: is to squeeze ISIS terrorist field of operation, until they come out of their hiding holes, and then take no-prisoner.

#4 Goal: is to cut-off their human resources and logistical supplies.
Totally seal all Syria and Iraq borders with ISIS supporting nations.

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Proposed Solutions to goals #2 , #3 , #4

#1) Let's implement 24hrs x 7days Redundant Layered network Drone Patrol strategy. ( This solution can be implemented economically, because China Mobile, ZTE, and Huawei, are implementing the same underlying technologies in building the smart cities internetwork IoT * M2M setup )

#2) Basically, fly multiple overlapping CH-3 or CH-5 drones on the highest layer. Next, fly the cheap Hexa Copter drones that one can be bought cheaply from Alibaba on the lower layer.

#3) Patrol all ISIS territory watching for unusual ground movements, 24x7.




#4) Announce it clearly to civilians on the ground, there will be preemptive strike.
If anybody disturbs these drones or get too close to the sensors installations on the ground -- let's say within 300 meters , then they will be shot back and punish without mercy.

#5) Next, with the redundant drones patrol from the above, and Special Forces on the ground guarding the strategic points ... ...
Let's install thousand of cameras and motion and infra red detector sensors and other sensors on the ground systematically square by square.

No permanent soldiers on the ground guarding the frontline checkpoints.

#6) Announce it clearly to all civilians on the ground, if they are not ISIS, then they can come forward one person at a time, and can not carry personal belongings,
-- filing through the M2M checkpoints, when they are safe distant and out of LoS from ISIS sniper, then they can pass through the Metal Detector.

#7) Next, the civilian will be house in a camp to sort out -- who they really are and given a new life in a new town built just for them.

#8) Gather intel from the civilians and destroy the empty town from the air, and loop back to solution #3 above and repeat the solution from #3 to #8 , and keep squeezing ISIS terrorists field of operation, until it become so small, and the ISIS terrorists get frustrated and coming out from their hiding holes.
And, take no-prisoner.

#9) Keep repeating Loop #3 -- #8, until there are no more ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq.

Let's see how many days and week ISIS terrorists can continuously hide below the ground to avoid preemptive strike from the drone above.

... ... Just my 2 cents proposal

plawolf said:

I think all talk of automated turret forts are too far fetch, and American, to be used by the PLA.

The PLA has an unparalleled history of both waging and countering insurgency warfare.

It won China through insurgency and guerrilla warfare, and then systematically defeated every single attempt by the Nationalists and the CIA to ferment unrest and revolution inside China.

The PLA knows insurgency warfare like no one else, and I think if they were to seriously deploy within Syria, they would be able to root out ISIS far more successfully than anyone else.

They key to insurgency and counter-insurgency operations is the support of the local people.

Automated terminator style killerbots won't do that. You need boots and smiling faces on the ground.

The irony is that the west knows this too, but just doesn't have the stomach to take the kind of losses it is required to root out an insurgency.

However, I think ISIS has almost done their enemies a favour with their brutality. The people are too scared of ISIS to stand up to them, that makes it more likely, not less, that they will turn informant on ISIS as soon as given the chance.

Given how they operate, I think ISIS will have a very hard time trying to fight an insurgency war, since all local populations either all hate their guts or have all fled when they took over a place.

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Unfortunately, all of China's most successful counter insurgency tactics are specifically tailored to the cultural and economic landscape of China, so I'm afraid they won't do much good in Syria.

I think it's pretty safe to say that China currently does not have the capability to deploy thousands of troops to Syria, so this line of tactics is pretty much off the table. In truth, it's increasingly starting to look like all this talk of China joining the Russian operation has just been a lot of empty talk from the Russians themselves.

GreenestGDP said:

View attachment 19427

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#9) Keep repeating Loop #3 -- #8, until there are no more ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq.

Let's see how many days and week ISIS terrorists can continuously hide below the ground to avoid preemptive strike from the drone above.

... ... Just my 2 cents proposal

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Classical guerrilla tactic -- bury/hide your weapons, melt into the civilian population. Pops up when you leave.

Seriously, a pure military solution does not work short of genocide/ethnic cleansing.

Skye_ZTZ_113 said:

Other people have refuted the automated fortress idea so I'll talk about the other aspects.

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I have seen people dispute it, I don't think anyone have refuted it. The thing is fortress, or any kind of force is only a tool, how it is used will determine if it is effective. and since one is more cost effective than the other, go figure.

nemo said:

Really? Think about it. Civilians will outnumber military by a very large margin. If you choke off civilian traffic, you chock off these people's livelihood. Access of water is even worse -- you need to account for herd and farm animals as well. So if you don't want humanitarian disaster, you need to feed and supply these people, and your logistical resources are not likely to be sufficient, and you do need to protect the supply convoy, which may be subject to attacks. If you supply by air, you may not have enough capacity and it will get very expansive. As to quarantine, good luck telling that to children and desperate people. Essentially, this scheme have the same disadvantage as land mines.

So what do you do? You can round up the civilians and put than the concentration camps. Of course people are going to get pissed. So when you leave, revolt will be even worse.

Now, you still think a purely technological clean solution is feasible?

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Reread my post, there is nothing about choking civilian traffic. As of current, it is martial law, how different would martial law be with or without fortresses? if these people can feed themselves with a curfew, why won't they be able to if the curfew is enforced by automated fortresses instead of armed militia?

So what do you think happens when children or desperate people walk over to current military check points looking like suicide bombers? how different would it be if these people approach an automated fortress?

nemo said:

Actually, it's not that difficult to destroy this automatic fortress. Simply dig a open trench under line of sight from the fortress -- you can get close enough, or even go under the fortress by tunnel. It's classic siege tactics.

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Well, no, if you have done some tunneling, tunneling requires a lot of material. you need beams to hold up the earth every few meters and more beams in sand. How are you going to bring in several metric ton of RC under fortress and UAV surveillance how long have the tunnel need to be and how long would it take the men to tunnel through? How many fortress can they attack at a time? Even if you can tunnel undetected to each fortress, historically it takes months to build a tunnel, 8000 fortresses and say 3 months per tunnel = 2000 years of tunneling without considering the fortresses will be replaced, i.e. good luck. Also, how many men do you need for the tunnel work? if you have 30-40 men per tunnel, the whole of the ISIS is what, 200k men? they can dig 100 tunnels. and if they do that, great, they are nolonger a threat.

The point of 8000+ fortress is that it doesn't matter if you lose a dozen or a hundred, coverage will not decrease and they are simply replaceable. What happens when a fortress is destroyed is a record of the surveillance details and sensor readings from the UAVs and other fortresses; it is not hard to pinpoint where the attackers came from and where they went. Infact it is the same/similar system that the PAP uses in China, why violent crimes are so easy to track down is once an attack has been made, it is easy to back track all the surveillance footages to show where the perpetrators comes from.

looks like yet another tough Thread LOL

nemo said:

Really? Think about it. ...

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fortunately for me, Lezt handled this

Lezt said:

...

Reread my post, there is nothing about choking civilian traffic. ...

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nemo:
I've enjoyed discussions with Lezt about WW2-Era Navies (I was often critical about what he said), so I stepped in since I "know" him and thought his posts here were misinterpreted by you, as I indicated ... by the way I personally think the occupation tactics he presented is just some kind of sci-fi but I'm respectful and read his posts carefully; I'll leave it at that, and you may have the last word