How will the Ukraine war end?

GodRektsNoobs said:

What makes you think Putin is doing all of this for his legacy?

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My response is in the context of "Frozen Stalemate/Conflict" that could stretch for years.

So indeed, if this war stretches for years as a "Frozen Stalemate", AND if Russia already controlled all of DNR/LNR AND already obliterated Ukraine's elite forces/Azov in Donbass, then I can see Putin Unilaterally declare victory because his "Demilitarize/Denazify" objectives are achieved, regardless of his inability to take Odessa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, because without full-scale war mobilization, those extra territories will take too long to conquer. At almost 70 years old, he not have unlimited time for a "Frozen Stalemate" to get extra territory (Odessa, Dnipro, Kharkiv) unless he goes full-scale war mobilization, which he has aversions to so far. Plus, a "Frozen Stalemate" would tarnish his legacy, this is true. That's why it's likely he will Unilaterally declare victory rather than get into a "Frozen stalemate".

GodRektsNoobs said:

IMO the fractures between NATO and Russia were already unbridgable by the end of Yeltsin's second term. Putin has been waiting for a opportune moment to deliver a blow since 2014 at the latest. It's go big or go home. I recommend watching this series by Bo Zhen, a researcher for Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on NATO expansion.

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Personally, I wish Russia would go big or go home, conquer all of Ukraine or at minimum establish Novorussiya Confederation and render Ukraine a land-locked state. But in reality, it's only a 'Special Military Operation' with only 200K troops, so unless Putin goes for full-scale war mobilization, I don't think he can grab a ton of extra land in any reasonable amount of time.

The war ends with Russia capturing a large part, if not all, of the Russian-dominant area (the teal-colored area in South-East).

Phead128 said:

Russia issued over

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to DNR/LNR residents and since the invasion,

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. So to answer your question, a passport gives ethnic Russians the legal document to safely evacuate to Russian Federation or they can stay in Ukraine upon return of the land.

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That would mean Russia is ethnically cleansing the Ukraine of Russians. That's exactly what the Ukrainian far right want and could have been achieved without starting a war.

Launching a war of this scale would make no sense unless you were planning on seizing some of Ukraine's resources, farmland, mines and so on.

Phead128 said:

Few reasons why I think Russia isn't going for full conquest:

• Highly public theatre over recognizing DNR/LNR independence gives me the impression the original goals was DNR/LNR annexation, and any extra land is icing-on-the-cake.
• 'Special Military Operation' designation implies a limited objective war
• Only 200K troops in initial invasion, doesn't suggest a full-conquest mentality
• Giving up the Kievan-front, despite nearly encircling the capital
• Focusing all forces on Donbass region
• Odessa virtually (relatively) untouched for most of the war.

Ideally Russia conquers the Novorossiya Confederations, but there needs to be an large increase in troop strengths to take Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro while at same time occupying the conquered territories.

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The army being deployed is massive, I don't know why people keep calling it small. 200,000 is larger than most countries entire active servicemen. When was the last time a country other than America had that many soldiers in another country?

I doubt Ukraine has more soldiers mobilised on the front line despite their claims of million or so. Even if it's true the Ukrainian soldiers aren't going to zerg rush the Russian lines with human waves. Numbers of soldiers are less important than the amount of heavy weaponry. On that front Russia has an overwhelming advantage.

Abominable said:

I wanted to make a poll to see what people thought the end game would be. Not what you think should happen, but what the Russian and Ukrainian military will be able to do before political will and economics become a factor. In other words what the border will look like when the fighting stops and there is a ceasefire or peace deal.

I tried to include as many options as possible, but obviously the final result may not fit exactly into one of these options. So pick the closet to what you think is going to happen. I didn't include fighting spreading to Russia or other territories, which could happen.

There's been very little commentary from both western and Russian military analysts to predict the end game, so here's your chance...
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1. Ukraine recaptures all territory
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2. Ukraine recaptures all territory except Crimea

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3. Russia captures Donetsk and Lugansk, withdraws or is pushed back from other territories.

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4. Russia captures all regions it currently occupies and goes no further


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5. Russia captures all territory east of the Dniper

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6. Russia captures most of Ukraine, landlocked/puppet state remains

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I vote 3. On the one hand Russia's economy can't support the protracted war in Ukraine, and domestic anti-war voices will get louder; on the other hand, if Russia continues to capature more lands of Ukraine, with the NATO‘s assistance to Ukraine, Russia cannot maintain the security of supply lines , they will eventually reconcile in the third option.