Re: How significant is the qinghai-tibet railway to China's military on the Tibet bor
I really don't see the point.
Commando raid works best when the other side is unprepared--
in another word, surprise attack by India. If this is the case, then diplomatic cost is alone may not worth it. The effect of the commando raids cannot possibly shut down the supply route. In the end, China still going have more troops and supplies in Tibet, and that means a higher likelihood of victory.
Let's assume either China initiated the action or simultaneous buildup.
Two words "survival training". If pygmies can live in sub-Saharan Africa than highly trained Army Rangers or the equivalent can be taught to live off the land and some of the most challenging environments on earth. Supplying the mines and other ordnance however that they use to destroy rail sections is another issue but food and water is not the biggest concern to the well trained. If worse comes to worse they could pry out the rail heads and cause wreaks right in front of a train, assuming that couldn't be supplied with additional high explosive by air drop.
Don't you think it's rather glib? Sending commando inside enemy territory this deep without a means of extraction is asking them to die. At very minimum, you have to abandon the dead and wounded.
Tibet is tundra, so there are not that much natural cover. The defender will have access to helicopter, so they have more mobility. Since there is no natural cover, your commando will be
vulnerable to thermo sensor.
If you want to do supply drop, you may have to use radio to
arrange it. So that may be vulnerable to signal interception/
triangulation. Although communication via satellite may get
around the issue.
Far from me to besmirch the capability of the India SF, but
they are not superhuman enough to break steel and concrete with bare hand.
I have my doubts that radar could pick up a small bush plane made of fiberglass, which would hug every terrain feature that it could to avoid detection. Let alone something civilians could use, now imagine a dedicated stealth aircraft inserting troops hither and yon.
Presume the availability of AWACS, which will be more effected by ground clutter rather than radar horizon. Flying nap of earth without terrain following radar is rather tiring and dangerous (i.e. cannot do it the whole way). If you use radar, then you are vulnerable to detection. Flying nap of earth is also fuel inefficient, so you may not have the range.
Hell you take the commandos of the equation and use stealth bombers if you get unlimited amounts of money available to ensure the operation was a success.
So do India have stealth bomber or transport, even in
the near future?
The Tibetans would be sympathetic to any group that would be willing to arrest the operation of the Chinese infrastructure. Thus prepositioning troops well in advance of any low intensity conflict, would likely succeed. The Chinese would be able to keep a wraps on any military operation from its own population, but American Indian and Russian satellite assets would see any rail movements or troop concentrations toward the rail lines long before they started loading the cars themselves.
Any Tibetan who got caught will be dead, and you cannot presume the sympathy of all Tibetans (there are enough Tibetans who are the descendants of freed peasants that were freed by PLA). And there are enough securities and intelligence watching the usual suspect that make this risky.
The worst part of this is this is causa belli -- legitimate reason for war. PLA may regard this as prelude to a surprise attack by India, and immediately activate the war zone campaign.
Since India will not be forewarned, PLA will have strategic surprise while India may lose diplomatic leverage. In another word, the worst of all world for a contingency of limited effectiveness.
As alluded to before, stealth technology tends to avoid many of the troubles, that could take place if your aircraft involved in resupply is noticed on enemy radar sets. The only hard part would be finding numerous places to hide. For that you'll need a local guide intimately familiar with the terrain and loyal in the face of continually more generous rewards for the capture of whoever is interdicting their rail infrastructure.
India doesn't have marked advantage (if any) in technology in comparison to China.
Frankly, any way I look at this, the cost exceeds any potential benefit.