H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

latenlazy

Brigadier
I find a tactical bomber pretty crucial for PLAAF and PLANAF needs. J-20 can be modified only so much. I doubt it will ever be heavily modified, elongated by a few meters, getting new wings etc, carrying large missiles. And no non-stealthy plane can really be a proper replacement for JH7 in this day and age. As we can see, even the J16s are really replacing fighters units, so PLAAF is using them more as multirole fighters, a continuation of their J11 procurement to replace old fighters.

So i think it's very likely we will see such a plane in the next 5-10 years. H-20, however, has priority right now, so i think 5 year estimate for tactical bomber is on the low end.

(all of this says nothing about whether the new tactical bomber will be unmanned or not. It's a possibility, certainly.)
My guess is that we will see a JH-XX greenlit the very moment the WS-15 finishes development. There probably is no getting around the engine problem for a bomber the size we suspect the JH-XX to be, unlike with the J-20.
 

jobjed

Captain
My guess is that we will see a JH-XX greenlit the very moment the WS-15 finishes development. There probably is no getting around the engine problem for a bomber the size we suspect the JH-XX to be, unlike with the J-20.

I would wager the opposite, actually. Strike aircraft with low performance requirements (<4G, ~10 deg/s STR, <20 deg AOA controllability, etc) can be powered by prev-gen engines for the whole duration of its service without compromising core capabilities. E.g. JH-7 with weak Spey engines have a comparable load capacity to the Su-30, and F-111 with TF30 engines have comparable load capacity to F-15Es.

If you want a strike aircraft that has good speed and good load capacity, designing a high-lift airframe more than makes up for inferiority of prev-gen engines. In fact, China's pursuing WS-15 engines was one of the arguments against the "J-20 is a strike aircraft" theory as the J-20's current TWR with AL-31/WS-10s is already far higher than required for a strike aircraft so there wouldn't have been a point in pursuing next-gen engines if the J-20 was geared for strike missions.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I would wager the opposite, actually. Strike aircraft with low performance requirements (<4G, ~10 deg/s STR, <20 deg AOA controllability, etc) can be powered by prev-gen engines for the whole duration of its service without compromising core capabilities. E.g. JH-7 with weak Spey engines have a comparable load capacity to the Su-30, and F-111 with TF30 engines have comparable load capacity to F-15Es.

If you want a strike aircraft that has good speed and good load capacity, designing a high-lift airframe more than makes up for inferiority of prev-gen engines. In fact, China's pursuing WS-15 engines was one of the arguments against the "J-20 is a strike aircraft" theory as the J-20's current TWR with AL-31/WS-10s is already far higher than required for a strike aircraft so there wouldn't have been a point in pursuing next-gen engines if the J-20 was geared for strike missions.
Not if you’re looking to maintain high payload, *and/* long range, *and* supersonic dash.

China could probably build their own version of the Su-34 with their current engine technology, but not the 30 meter long 20 tonne payload supersonic JH-XX we’ve been discussing.
 

jobjed

Captain
Not if you’re looking to maintain high payload, *and/* long range, *and* supersonic dash.

China could probably build their own version of the Su-34 with their current engine technology, but not the 30 meter long 20 tonne payload supersonic JH-XX we’ve been discussing.

That would be more an H-6K replacement rather than the JH-7 replacement that a JH-XX designation implies.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
20 ton payload is ridiculous. Half that as maximum payload would be more than enough, and even that only for situations where air superiority is achieved and the plane is free to serve as a bomb truck, carrying stuff under the wings as well. 3-4 ton payload inside the weapon bays would be the usual war load, and it'd be more than enough. 30 meter length is thus not needed. Something under 25 meters in length, with empty weight of some 25-30 tons and MTOW weight of around 60 tons would really suffice.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Not if you’re looking to maintain high payload, *and/* long range, *and* supersonic dash.

China could probably build their own version of the Su-34 with their current engine technology, but not the 30 meter long 20 tonne payload supersonic JH-XX we’ve been discussing.

I think supersonic dash could still be achieved, but supercruise might not be possible.

I do think 20 tons is a bit ludicrous though. An 8+ ton payload would be good enough.

A few years back I think I speculated a 60+ ton MTOW

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plaaf-jh-xx-h-x-bomber-project.t6451/page-36#post-366899
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
I think supersonic dash could still be achieved, but supercruise might not be possible.

I do think 20 tons is a bit ludicrous though. An 8+ ton payload would be good enough.

A few years back I think I speculated a 60+ ton MTOW

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plaaf-jh-xx-h-x-bomber-project.t6451/page-36#post-366899
At 8-10 tonnes we’re talking about an Aardvark or a Su-34. That’s probably doable with China’s current engines, but then we’re talking about something that no longer fits the theater bomber role we were talking about earlier.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
At 8-10 tonnes we’re talking about an Aardvark or a Su-34. That’s probably doable with China’s current engines, but then we’re talking about something that no longer fits the theater bomber role we were talking about earlier.

Probably worth rereading those few pages of posts, we go through it quite a bit.

Btw the 60+ ton MTOW is for internal configuration. 80 ton MTOW is for including external payloads.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Probably worth rereading those few pages of posts, we go through it quite a bit.

Btw the 60+ ton MTOW is for internal configuration. 80 ton MTOW is for including external payloads.
I was going to add this point in an edit, but didn’t expect you to reply so fast. A 60+ tonne MTOW with internal payload would be a lot bigger than an F-111 or Su-34, and probably closer to that 20 tonne theater bomber I was originally referring to. For reference the Su-34 does about 12 tonnes max payload and the F-111 did about 14 tonnes, and both are around 45 tonnes at MTOW.
 
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