It’s not about reach but volume.
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
It’s not about reach but volume.
Reach and time in the air, too.
Yes but everyone thinks the J-36 has reach and air time, and it might! But it won’t have volume. So long as you want to kill bases and not just deny area you need a dump truck.
I am not that sure about J-36 flying that far for that long.
It's big, sure, but between big IWB(volume equivalent of engine+duct) and 3 engines, it isn't exactly optimized on range/payload metrics; it's a fighter first. Yet at the same time, it's IWB isn't exactly that big for a bomber (volume problem indeed).
If you want something staying in air for days, with lots of cookies, no need to reach TWR around 1 or more.
Well the J-36 won't be ready for a while and you can't really know what will happen in the next decade with emerging engine technology like variable cycle engines and such. Perhaps J-36 can be pretty good both on range/payload and on speed so it can have pretty good loiter time too. That said yeah of course compared to a dedicated bomber like H-20 or B-21 the IWB volume and payload, while not negligible, does leave something to be desired.
Getting back to H-20 though it feels like this is the one project from China that has repeatedly been behind/disappointed. Hasn't it been teased semi-officially that a first flight would come "soon" for years now? For example there is this from Global Times in 2021. There was a lot of talk that H-20 and B-21 would basically be simultaneous like first flight within months, etc. Yet it's basically just been nothing for years.
Is it just taking longer than expected? Better PLA OPSEC? We had the surprise J-15T and J-15D reveal with like no leadup so the PLA has shown the ability to just have something appear in significant numbers without any rumors. Maybe PLA decided to prioritize other projects like J-35, J-36, J-50, UCAVs, etc. instead and is delaying H-20?
I think they deprioritized it as kinda good to have but not mandatory. Cause even if they have h-20 it's probably not possible to break the first island chain without sensors or radars noticing it. Without the surprise, h-20 becomes a Sitting duck. Moreover, for targets inside the first island chain, they already have all the fighters which can reach anywhere inside it.
In order to attack US using the H-20, they will have utterly destroy most of the air defense radars, long range radars or whatever US allies have put in atleast one of the first island chain choke points
A defensive oriented airwing doesn't need the H-20 to attack the US. It needs an H-20 to deny bases and carrier groups within second Islands chain with good loitering time and vast weapon bay. Going to the north to attack the US could be a thing with refueling but for what purpose ?
Attacking the US with a handful of unsupported H-20s based in mainland China is pretty unrealistic and unlikely to accomplish much, this is true. However that is not their only use. As @Atomicfrog points out the H-20 can basically do a lot of what H-6 does currently but with more survivability due to it being more difficult to detect. This could allow more effective attacks on Guam/Japan/other bases or on USN ships.
While it is true that RF technology has been advancing very quickly, much more quickly than say stealth materials capability or better shaping or whatever and this has only reduced the relative effectiveness of stealth, not completely eliminated it. A VLO H-20 will still be detected significantly later than an H-6.
Further even if you can detect it with say low frequency radar, that resolution is usually not good enough to provide weapons guidance. So you know there is a stealth aircraft somewhere near that point but not with enough accuracy to guide a missile to it. Stealth may prevent you from being able to get a weapons quality track needed to actually hit it with a missile. So a H-20 would be not only more difficult to detect than H-6 it would also be more difficult to destroy even if you can detect it.
All that said, the PLAAF doesn't have unlimited resources and there are a lot of projects with ongoing development at the same time: J-20A, J-35A, J-36, J-50, a whole menagerie of drones, etc. Maybe they had to deprioritize something as there just weren't enough funds/personnel available and H-20 was the least bad option.
Being able to hold at risk Hawaii, Alaska, and the entire West Coast of the CONUS within its unrefueled range (assuming it's similar to the B-2's) is entirely enough to justify its development. And that's just with a conventional payload. With extended range munitions, such as a nuclear cruise missile, it could hit a significantly more diverse range of targets inside the CONUS; with the H-20 China has its third leg of a nuclear triad as well, so let's not forget that.
It's not clear to me exactly how easily detectable an H-20 would be, even against a LF radar. Large flying wings tend to have very good broadband stealth, across a very large range of frequencies.
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Iirc B-2's range cannot reach West Coast CONUS from NE China (around 8000-9000 km one way, so at least 16k km round trip)