H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
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A cropped screen capture, taken from a CNY greeting from Shenyang. Not sure if this is relevant, but this thread will have to do.
@huitong has updated his site?! Is this based on additional reports or just that single image?
cross posting something I put in science & tech thread. This is from someone on Weibo that's more tech than defense focused.
第二，H20首飞，进度赶得上2025首批入列。那差不多和003到时一个进度了，从此中国的天空更加严密。而003铁定开始海试，希望到时可以看到拆棚后的雄姿！
So he is saying here that H-20 will make its first flight this year (which I think most people would agree with) and that the initial batch might enter service in 2025 at around the same time as 003. I think 2025 initial service entry for 003 is reasonable.
But if we use J-20 as an example, 2011 made its initial flight in 2014 and initial batch joined FTTC in 2016. So if this is the case with H-20, then what will make first flight this year is more like 2011 and 35001 than 31001 or 2001. So, not just a demonstrator. I remember talking to patch a while back about something and he mentioned about possible small number of H-20 in service by 2025. At the time, I thought it was quite aggressive. I still think it is, but this is at least something to keep in mind.
News on China's scientific and technological development.
China's spending on research and development (R&D) exceeded 3 trillion yuan (about $442.63 billion) for the first time in 2022, and is estimated to account for 2.55% of the country's GDP, both hitting record highs: data from the National Bureau of Statistics..
www.sinodefenceforum.com
So he is saying here that H-20 will make its first flight this year (which I think most people would agree with) and that the initial batch might enter service in 2025 at around the same time as 003. I think 2025 initial service entry for 003 is reasonable.
But if we use J-20 as an example, 2011 made its initial flight in 2014 and initial batch joined FTTC in 2016. So if this is the case with H-20, then what will make first flight this year is more like 2011 and 35001 than 31001 or 2001. So, not just a demonstrator. I remember talking to patch a while back about something and he mentioned about possible small number of H-20 in service by 2025. At the time, I thought it was quite aggressive. I still think it is, but this is at least something to keep in mind.
This comparison to 2011 (J-20) and 350001 (J-35) is interesting especially for the J-35, since it will be interesting how many additional prototypes will appear when and in what intervals.
As for the H-20 I in fact won't hold my breath both with maiden flight this year - even if indeed likely - and service entry 2025 - IMO unlikely!
by78
General
I've heard of no additional reports. Maybe Huitong has.
Will need to be streamlined if it have 2 ws-10 and be larger than j-20.
2 thoughts:
1. H20 is a bomber, not a fighter, so flight testing profile is probably a lot less rigorous
2. what are the chances H20 tech demonstrator/prototype already flew, but is being withheld due to geopolitical sensitivities
So, H-6K first flew in 2007 and entered service with 8th division 4 years later. That's also how long it took for J-20 to go from 2011 to service entrance in a regular brigade. Y-20 first flew in 2013 and entered service in 2016 (a little more than 3 years). Normally, I would've guessed 4 to 5 years is needed for an all new platform like H-20. 2023 first flight would point to an service entry in 2027/2028. It is possible they could deliver a handful of H-20s to FTTC for training and tactical development before that. Maybe that's what he is talking about here.
2. is very unlikely.
Being able to hide an aircraft of this size from making its first flight is very very very difficult.
Very true, but the question be hide from who - i.e NSA/DIA/NRO/CIA vs. OSINT crowd, Janes etc.