And then it turns out this entire time the H-20 is a massive stealthy ground effect aircraft that can easily cross the Pacific while hauling 20+ cruise missiles.
I kid, of course.
I kid, of course.
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Can we come back to reality and - even if this is probably too early to be rated a flagship-thread - this is plain stupid!
The H-6 is already not a small aircraft and carries 4 YJ-12 externally ... and now you want the H-20 to carry 8 YJ-12 internally?! Never ever.
Doing so would require every single H-20 to be fitted with the probe-and-drogue system onboard in order to refuel other H-20s, which would add additional weight and complexity to every H-20s, on top of the paylaods and initial fuel carried onboard.
Might as well have specialized aerial refueling version of the H-20, i.e. HU-20.
The YJ-12 is a massive missile both in terms of weight and in terms of volume, even if it were in a folded wing configuration.
That isn't going to happen. And to be honest I would be surprised if H-20 is intended to carry YJ-12 internally to begin with.
YJ-12 is a fine and capable missile right now, but it should be superseded by other systems that are a bit more optimized and a bit more compact, in time.
Exactly.
By the time H20 is in service with meaningful numbers, i would be surprised if YJ12 is still the main anti shipping weapon for PLAAF - I am not even sure it is now
i assume this is in the context of conventional war.
then i think it is not realistic to meanigfully strike CONUS with H20 before the second island chain is secured by China.
what you are suggesting might work in thoery, but they wont make much of a difference because once the bomber is 1500km away from Chinese coast, it is exposed to USN/USAF interception almost all the way, lost rate will quickly become unacceptable.
One prerequisite for US bomber force to be relevant in westpac, is they are perfectly safe before they come closer than 1500km to Chinese coast, which is because USN control the sea west of first island chain.
If PLAAF really want to strike CONUS, first PLAN need to prepare to defeat USN and take Guam
Yes. Because unlike China who has her interior terribly exposed to long-range missiles stationed along the First Island Chain, the US is perfectly shielded by the vastness of the Pacific. This geographical luckiness is one of the main contributors to the US victory in WW2.
In a hypothetical China-US war, China must be able to strike the military industrial capability of the US, just like how the US would do in the same situation.
Only if the world functions on a rectangular map.
Here is the layout of the First and Second Island Chains.
The First Island Chain spans from Hokkaido (some claim the line extends all the way north to the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula) through the Japanese archipelago, Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines before terminating around the islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
The Second Island Chain spans from Tokyo through the Bonin Islands and Guam before terminating north of New Guinea.
Let us assume that the PLAAF H-20s are stationed somewhere deep within China's interior. Here are 3 scenarios that the H-20 would be expected to operate in their strategic bombing runs against CONUS.
First - If the intended targets are located on the West Coast of CONUS, here is the flight path that the H-20s would take:
Notice how the flight path completely avoids the Japanese archipelago and the Kuril Islands, and fly across the northern Sea of Okhotsk, Kamchatka Peninsula and the Bering Sea. The first NATO forces that could directly intercept the flight path would have to be stationed in Alaska.
Second - If the intended targets are located somewhere in the Midwest of CONUS, here is the flight path that the H-20s would take:
The H-20's flight path moves further north into Far East Russia and the Arctic Ocean, completely bypassing both island chains in the Pacific. The first NATO forces that could directly intercept the flight path would have to be stationed in Alaska or Canada.
Third - If the intended targets are located on the East Coast of CONUS, here is the flight path that the H-20s would take:
In this scenario, we can see that the flight path of the H-20s has moved even further north, across Siberia and the Arctic Ocean before coming down south onto the North American continent. The first NATO forces that could directly intercept the flight path would have to be stationed in Canada.
In a nutshell - Unless the intended targets of the H-20s are located in Guam, Hawaii or anywhere south, there is little need for the H-20s to fly across the Pacific directly, and hence, reducing or even eliminating the chances of crossing those Pacific Island Chains. To fly across the First and Second Island Chains from China to CONUS would mean taking an extremely long and unnecessary detour, and would certainly require at least one aerial refueling for the entire journey.
In fact, there is no need for China to secure the Second Island Chain or even take over Guam from the US in order to allow the H-20s to do their bombing runs against CONUS. Just neutralize the US forces (and that of her allies) on those two island chains would suffice.
In principle, this works similarly as the ballistic missiles of the PLARF.
As a matter of fact - If the H-20s can be fitted with ultra-long-range standoff missiles that could fly thousands of kilometers to their targets, then the H-20s wouldn't even need to enter Alaskan or Canadian airspaces at all. Those H-20s only need to:
1. Fly over Siberia or Far East Russia;
2. Launch their missiles over the Bering Sea or the Arctic Ocean;
3. Make a U-turn;
4. Head back to their home bases in China; and
5. Let those missiles complete the rest of their journey.
Of course, as the global warming progresses, ice caps and icebergs in the Arctic would become thinner annd smaller, thus permitting more ships to transit through the northern ocean. In light of this, we should expect the Arctic Ocean to become a new battleground for supremacy between NATO and Russia + China.
Therefore, it would be advisable for the PLA to start conducting and intensifying joint exercises and training with their Russian counterparts in Siberia and Far East Russia, and began sending forces and equipment on a rotational basis into the Arctic Circle and the Arctic Ocean. In times of war, China and/or Russia would be able to provide escort and protection for those H-20s to conduct their bombing runs into CONUS.
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Just a small add-on.
However, those locations can be dealt with using DF missiles that are at least DF-31 (or DF-27) and beyond.
I have seen a few who even suggested that the First Island Chain should be extended through the Aleutian Islands to Anchorage, Alaska.
However, those locations can be dealt with using DF missiles that are at least DF-31 (or DF-27) and beyond.
Plus even routine commercial flights that operate between the continents of Asia and North America.
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And if Russia prefers to remain neutral in this scenario?
I think you have to be very careful about using df31, because any icbm would be treated as a nuclear strike. Df27 has hgv profile, so you may be able to use that against long range target. Big unknown.
More importantly, h20 has a long list of roles now. One of which is to deter b21 threat. I think @Blitzo discussed this before. The ability to carry like 12 vlo alcm that are over 1000 kg each (maybe 1200 kg) and still have 5000 to 6000 km combat radius. Assuming 1500 km range on something like that, then you can threaten targets that are 7500 km away from mainland china. Theoretically, that opens up pearl harbour from east coast and Seattle from heilongjiang. That would take away two major area of operation that b21 could utilize against mainland china.
Keep in mind that while h20 maybe stationed further into china, they can be refueled over water or Russia before they go on a really long mission. It's unclear to me this is what pla is planning, but I think they need to have this as some of the core missions that h20 would need to undertake. I really don't think wasting time with supersonic penetration or holding hypersonic missiles is a good idea.
More importantly, h20 has a long list of roles now. One of which is to deter b21 threat. I think @Blitzo discussed this before. The ability to carry like 12 vlo alcm that are over 1000 kg each (maybe 1200 kg) and still have 5000 to 6000 km combat radius. Assuming 1500 km range on something like that, then you can threaten targets that are 7500 km away from mainland china. Theoretically, that opens up pearl harbour from east coast and Seattle from heilongjiang. That would take away two major area of operation that b21 could utilize against mainland china.
Keep in mind that while h20 maybe stationed further into china, they can be refueled over water or Russia before they go on a really long mission. It's unclear to me this is what pla is planning, but I think they need to have this as some of the core missions that h20 would need to undertake. I really don't think wasting time with supersonic penetration or holding hypersonic missiles is a good idea.