Ten.
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Actually...no.
From the initiation of design in 1979 to first flight in 1989 was ten years.
Here's more detail of the B-2 development.
It began under the Advanced Technology Bomber (ATB) program which was a "black project," started in 1979. After the evaluation of various proposals, the competition was narrowed to the Northrop/Boeing and Lockheed/Rockwell teams. In 1979, Northrup produced a sketch of the aircraft, that bore considerable similarities to the final design.
The Northrop design was selected over Lockheed's design in October 1981 and received the designation B-2 "Spirit". A significant design change in the mid-1980s impacted the mission profile, going from high-altitude to low-altitude, terrain-following. This delayed the B-2's first flight by two years and added about $1 billion to the cost.
First flight of the B-2 occurred on July 7, 1989.
The first operational aircraft, the Spirit of Missouri, was delivered to Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, on December 17, 1993.
The aircraft reached initial operational capability (IOC) on January 1, 1997.
The B-2's combat debut occurred in 1999 during the Kosovo War.
...so it was ten years from initiation of design to 1st flight...but this could have been eight years without the change of the mission profile in the mid-80s.
From reading the chinadaily article linked by ladioussupp and going by the time line of the B-2 Spirit program progress as comparison, it took the U.S around 15 years from initiation to first flight.
If the article is credible that China's long-range strategic bomber program was initiated by AVIC in 2008. Even with an optimistic estimation that maybe China can work a little faster with a less complicated or ambitious design and not run into any major obstacles. We might not see any pics of the JH-XX for at least another 5-6 years.
Following my rational expectation and given an at best similar development-cycle to the Y-20 (full-scale metal mock-up constructed by 2008, begin of prototype-manufacturing in August 2009 and final assembly until late 2012, maiden flight in early 2013) a roll out + maiden flight can be projected to 2018/19 at best IMO.
Deino
antiterror13
Brigadier
Thanks Jeff.
Really interesting to see that nobody else has developed (or capable of) similar bomber which flew just over 26 years ago, not even current China, USSR or Russia or any EU country. It shows how big the gap between the US military technology than the rest of the world. I know China would come up with something similar, but not until 2025, ~35 years later, and nobody knows whether it would have similar capability of B-2 or better or less advanced, all are just guessing at this stage ... really amazing
the analogy is like computer in 1989 and current computer. The majority of PCs in 1989 still running MS/PC-DOS, perhaps some with CPM or MS Windows 2.1. And the majority of PC powered by 8088 or Z-80 and some might have 80286 .... imagine to compare with current CPU and graphic card ... hundred thousands times better.
My smartphone now perhaps thousands times more powerful than the PC in 1989
In software, really no comparison between 1989 (Windows 2.1 or DOS) and 2015 (Windows 10, Android, IOS, Linux, etc, etc)
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JayBird
Junior Member
From huitong's website: The latest rumor (March 2015) suggested that individual parts of a prototype are being manufactured at XAC.
I think we should be able to see first flight of China's long-range strategic bomber way before 2025 if individual parts of a prototype already being manufactured in 2015. It's crazy to think XAC needs 10 years to assemble the first prototype. I will expect first flight should be 3-4 years from now if the rumor is true. Long-range strategic bomber program was initiated by AVIC in 2008, if first flight is 2025 that's 17 years.
I agree US military technology is way ahead of the rest of world. But the reason no other similar bomber like B-2 was developed was not just technology, it's because no other country can afford it. Plus most European countries don't think it's a necessity to have a long-range strategic bomber like B-2 because the collapse of Soviet Union.
antiterror13
Brigadier
welll, money is part of the equation
Is like watching our neighbours driving Ferrari and then say , well, we could drive a better car if we had $$ or if we won lotto
Even lets say new Chinese bomber did fly in 2020, that would be 31 years after B-2 first fly
Is like watching our neighbours driving Ferrari and then say , well, we could drive a better car if we had $$ or if we won lotto
Even lets say new Chinese bomber did fly in 2020, that would be 31 years after B-2 first fly
Ultra
Junior Member
I agree, the gap seems unreasonably large right now, but using your same analogy, remember China back in the 80s only start to transition from black and white televsions to color televisions for the "rich" household (and majority doesn't even have a television)? Or how almost NOBODY except institutions have computers in China back in 80s?
Look at China now, almost everyone has the latest mobile phone(s), several computers of latest spec, and China is the world's largest manufacturer of mobile phones and computers. China's very own mobile phone and computer manufacturers are world's top 5.
Technological gap can be closed, and on the same token, technological leader can also fall behind. China itself is a good example - China was the technological leader in the world for thousands of years (and often leads the West by a good thousand years in many areas) but fell victim to its own success and fell way behind the West in the last 200 years.
Nothing says US will continue its lead forever, infact, I think as time goes on China will become the absolute technological leader in the world once again for a long time for several reason :
1. Economy of scale - China's economy will surpass and dwarf the US economy by absolute term (nominal, not PPP) in the foreseeable future, being the largest economy also means it will be able to afford more to spend on R&D.
2. Population scale - which powers point 1 - as there are 4x (and soon 5x) more Chinese than americans, and the income gap closing every year, means more money to power that economy.
3. Talent pool - which taken from point 2 means there are more talents, engineers, scientists to go into the field, 4x more in fact. It is said that if a genius is born in one in a million, China will have 1300 of them! Couple with the fact that it is ingrained in the Chinese culture to get higher education (as compare to the american), China will have far better educated workforce (more engineers, scientists) than America in the next 50 years and the future. The competition from having such a large population is also a factor, considering for many Chinese to get into universities the competition is beyond intense - something that is unfathomable by the western standard.
Also, back in 80s, there is little need for a strategic stealth bomber for China - sure it is a nice thing to have just like having a Ferrari, but it is not essential. Reason being China was following the Credible Minimum Deterrence doctrine; and most importantly, China just normalized relation with America, and in very friendly term too (as US geared towards isolating the USSR) as US was also providing military technologies to China. US was the new found friend! So the need for a stealth bomber was a moot point. While relationship with Russia was tense back then, China's arsenal back then was effective enough to be a deterrence (with H-6s able to reach most of Russia, and couple with large arsenals of IRBMs). Last not the least, when you are dirt poor, your life is entirely expendable, there is little of value to protect or hold on to. And China was dirt poor. One of the CPC general once said that they are willing to sacrifice tens of millions of Chinese population over a war with US over Taiwan. But as people get rich, and tasted good life, there is more and more to hold on to! The fear of losing what has been achieved drives people to want more security, to an insane level (much like the idea of ). America is currently at this juncture, as they are not satisfied with having security at home or near their border, but have expanded far out across the oceans to far away foreign lands.
Right now, it is ironic that the geopolitical situation is completely reversed - China is now in very friendly terms with Russia, while increasingly having frictions and hostility with the US. China is now richer, have far more to lose, and has the economy of scale and technological base to develop the strategic stealth bomber. So it makes sense for China to develop one now.
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SinoSoldier
Colonel
Your prediction banks on the assumption that component manufacturing started in 2015, whereas for all we know it could have commenced at another time and happened to be in progress at the time the rumor came out.
JayBird
Junior Member
Not many people expected J-20 first flight would happen in January 2011 at the time. I hope maybe XAC will follow Chengdu's example and surprise us all again in late 2015-2016. But we might need Defense secretary Carter to go visit China early next year to help along with the pace and transparency of the program's development just like secretary Gates did with J-20.