I think this is bold also. What has changed for things to be up in the air right now. What evidence is there that there have been setbacks or changes in priorities etc. or something to cause things to be ‘up in the air’?
H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
I think this is bold also. What has changed for things to be up in the air right now. What evidence is there that there have been setbacks or changes in priorities etc. or something to cause things to be ‘up in the air’?
"Concrete plans" -- we never have any truly "concrete plans" for any new big ticket PLA military project.
Look back on other big ticket air, naval, missile and ground projects in recent times. We never had any sort of official timetable for when certain milestones might be achieved.
J-20, SAC Flankers, Y-20, 052D, 055, DF-17, DF-41, ZTQ-15, QBZ-191, whatever -- before any of them officially "emerged" we never had any sort of public schedule or "concrete plan" for when they would be in service from the govt or the military.
As for H-20 specifically, it all depends on when the first aircraft flies.
Stealth bombers are complex aircraft, and the original B-2 first flew in 1989 and entered service in 1997 --- that's 8 years later.
Now, I'm not saying H-20 will necessarily take 8 years between maiden flight and entry into service, but I am saying that you need time for a new aircraft to be tested and developed before production and entry into service, and it isn't something you can simply accelerate by throwing more money or engineers at the problem.
For an aircraft as complex as H-20, I would expect at least 5 years in this day and age, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was more.
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Basically, the one thing we are waiting for which is yet to be determined is when H-20 will make its maiden flight.
Once H-20 makes its maiden flight we can start to make predictions for when it might enter service.
But right now, all we know is that the first H-20 is being built, but we don't know how far long it is. We don't know if it will fly in 2021, or 2022 or later.
A stealthy strategic bomber is a complex aircraft, and we don't know what their original specific aim for a maiden flight is/was, so we don't know if things are proceeding according to their schedule or not.
However it is certainly bold to assume that whatever current schedule they're operating on means we should expect H-20 to enter service in 2027. There is no reason for us to be able to confidently make such an assertion in good reasoning, at best it can be stated in with hopefulness.
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Edit: as for modern submarines (09V, 09VI) -- well yes, you're not going to see much progress of it until the first boat is literally launched. Nuclear submarines are among the most secretive military projects in the PLA, they keep very secretive about them, and their construction easy to hide.
What's going to happen is one day we're going to wake up and see on satellite that Bohai has launched a new submarine that seems different to previous submarines and we will have weeks and months to speculate which exact type it is before tentative confirmation that it's an 09V or 09VI.
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The TU-16 isn't an old technology. It is only old when compared to Russia and the US. To the rest of the world, it is a terminator. China continues to develop and upgrade the H-6 line of aircraft because the PLAAF currently has no more efficient bombers. Even with successful development of the H-20, the H-6 will continue to be used for a long time.
It could be better if China develops a Turboprop bomber similar to the Tu-95 or converts a transport aircraft like the Y-20 into a strategic bomber. It filled the gap between Xian H-6 and Xian H-20
It could be better if China develops a Turboprop bomber similar to the Tu-95 or converts a transport aircraft like the Y-20 into a strategic bomber. It filled the gap between Xian H-6 and Xian H-20
Honestly i have a new assessment on the capability of Chinese aviation industry with the fact that after 10 years of its maiden flight, j20 still has not entered mass production
The mighty Lockheed Martin's F-35 took almost a decade and a half from maiden flight to reach initial operating capability and mass production. If we looked further back, it took almost two decades from the first flight of the X-35 (from which the F-35 was developed from) to the F-35's mass production.
Not trying to make this a pissing contest, just saying that all things come in good time. It's more important we get things right instead of rushing a half-assed project into mass production, and having to halt things when a major flaw is exposed.
mass production is not good in the long run. It covers the cost of fabrication, maintenance, operation, staff training, and the support team. That is a huge cost over the 20-30 year life of a fighter. That does not take into account the need to constantly upgrade the aircraft so that the aircraft is not out of date.
H-6 is the only aircraft in PLAAF and PLAN that can carry YJ-12. It can carry at least four of them. That's utility right there even if literally nothing else and we all know that's not even close to being true. The speed and ease (and relative cheapness) these H-6N/K/G/J variants can be pumped out in definitely helps a lot with keeping those production lines running.
I'd imagine even the future H-20 and JH-x can not fill all the performance metrics the H-6 can when it comes to serviceability rate, maintenance, and overall costs. Not all targets require or deserve a B-21 level of attention. Sometimes the B-52 does a job much better albeit being from another era. That saying... using a cannon against a mosquito?
H-6xyz will not be as advanced and "capable" on paper as something like a Tu-22M or any other more modern bomber but the upgraded H-6 variants can drop Chinese cruise missiles, anti-ship/anti-surface/anti-radiation, and now also air launched ballistic missiles. It's production is fast and smooth and the frame can continue to receive electronic upgrades and even slight structural ones like we've already seen with the H-6's development path. All of that is worth a lot more than whatever a Tu-22M or any "superior" bomber can bring. Even H-20 and JH-x cannot really replace some of the H-6's usefulness and so production will unlikely stop until the entire doctrine becomes overhauled due to revolutions in how wars are fought or when the H-20 and future JH become superceded themselves.
The H-6 being able to extend the range and energy of YJ/KD/CJ/DH missiles is extremely useful. That's something a new Tu-22M cannot do without may years and many, many millions of RMB.
I'd imagine even the future H-20 and JH-x can not fill all the performance metrics the H-6 can when it comes to serviceability rate, maintenance, and overall costs. Not all targets require or deserve a B-21 level of attention. Sometimes the B-52 does a job much better albeit being from another era. That saying... using a cannon against a mosquito?
H-6xyz will not be as advanced and "capable" on paper as something like a Tu-22M or any other more modern bomber but the upgraded H-6 variants can drop Chinese cruise missiles, anti-ship/anti-surface/anti-radiation, and now also air launched ballistic missiles. It's production is fast and smooth and the frame can continue to receive electronic upgrades and even slight structural ones like we've already seen with the H-6's development path. All of that is worth a lot more than whatever a Tu-22M or any "superior" bomber can bring. Even H-20 and JH-x cannot really replace some of the H-6's usefulness and so production will unlikely stop until the entire doctrine becomes overhauled due to revolutions in how wars are fought or when the H-20 and future JH become superceded themselves.
The H-6 being able to extend the range and energy of YJ/KD/CJ/DH missiles is extremely useful. That's something a new Tu-22M cannot do without may years and many, many millions of RMB.
It is in mass production though..
Or rather, we don't know exactly how many are being built in a year but indications over the last year and a half suggest production is certainly very active.
If you look at the time taken between the first flight of other projects like F-22 and F-35 and when their respective TDs first flew and when production of their types then entered production, J-20s situation is quite reasonable.
Production of a new generation, new aircraft type takes time to establish production rate. J-20 first began production around late 2015 by all indicators, and over the last five years aircraft production should have increased.
But if you were expecting production annually to be 60+ just five years after beginning production I think you didn't have a good grasp of the industry.
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The US has over 13,000 manned military aircraft while China has only 3,200. Clearly the US aviation industry (not just civilian but military too) is far more mature and their industrial base and ability to mass produce aircraft is still far superior.
Idk when China will catch up, maybe 20 years? Such arbitrary numbers, ultimately I don't even know if China is catching up in raw numbers.