Future PLA strategic procurement priorities

Lime said:

I mean China's strategy is not looking for controlling beyond the second island chain, protecting the trade route is enough.

It's a kind of defense strategy, also their carriers are used for defense. Totally different from the U.S because of different conditions of nation.

So H-20 is not the most priority because it is a very clear symbol of aggression weapon aimed at U.S.

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China is the world's largest trading nation and its trade routes are global

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Well, the US plans on operating B-21 Bombers and Tanker aircraft from Hawaii.
Such a combination would allow B-21s to launch cruise missiles against mainland China with relative impunity.

The only realistic response available for the next 10 years would be nuclear submarines carrying land-attack missiles or H-20 Bombers with airborne refuelling from Y-20U tankers.

Air Force Magazine speculating that

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China would have to build 500 fifth-generation J-20s and FC-31s between now and 2025, or 125 aircraft per year

airforcemag.com/china-likely-stepping-up-stealth-fighter-production/
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I think this is far higher actual production rate for the next 4 years.
My estimate is a maximum of 48 J-20s per year, plus the J-31 will still be in LRIP during this time.

But if China were to buy 500 J-20s, we're likely looking at:

$60 Billion in procurement costs
+
$10 Billion in annual operating costs

These figures are easily manageable given the size of China's economy and its low level of military spending at 1.7% of GDP

AndrewS said:

China is the world's largest trading nation and its trade routes are global

---
Well, the US plans on operating B-21 Bombers and Tanker aircraft from Hawaii.
Such a combination would allow B-21s to launch cruise missiles against mainland China with relative impunity.

The only realistic response available for the next 10 years would be nuclear submarines carrying land-attack missiles or H-20 Bombers with airborne refuelling from Y-20U tankers.

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Or the establishment of more foreign military bases.

Abominable said:

Or the establishment of more foreign military bases.

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Cuba and Venezuela would be happy to accommodate. After China reaches a threshold of volume production of all platforms which she needs for her environs she can start expanding bases near the US to put their citizenry, industry, war production facilities, economy, and so on at the same risk exposure as the Chinese face today.

sinophilia said:

Cuba and Venezuela would be happy to accommodate. After China reaches a threshold of volume production of all platforms which she needs for her environs she can start expanding bases near the US to put their citizenry, industry, war production facilities, economy, and so on at the same risk exposure as the Chinese face today.

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We're heading into the middle of the 21st century; by then, i'd hope that china's Kilometre class starships will have nuclear warheads pointing directly at each major metropolitan anglo city.

AndrewS said:

China is the world's largest trading nation and its trade routes are global

---
Well, the US plans on operating B-21 Bombers and Tanker aircraft from Hawaii.
Such a combination would allow B-21s to launch cruise missiles against mainland China with relative impunity.

The only realistic response available for the next 10 years would be nuclear submarines carrying land-attack missiles or H-20 Bombers with airborne refuelling from Y-20U tankers.

Click to expand...

I agree with this. The only realistic response available are nuclear sub carrying land-attack missiles and H-20 bomber with airborne refueling from a stealth drone tanker.