Applying new logic to future builds up to year 2030 i came to some new conclusions.
Assuming that tactical combat planes in active service with plaaf and planaf will not be over 30 years old, we should be seeing really only j7g (and upgraded e to g standard), jh7a and j8f/fr left, previous generation wise. That should be, if i am not mistaken, some 120ish j7g, 120ish j8f/fr and 200ish jh7a, attrition not withstanding.
Current production rate of some 60ish tactical combat planes per year would mean overall numbers would fall to around 1500. Again, that's without regular attrition due to accidents.
But with Chengdu aircraft corporation snagging both J20 and j10b projects, and with SAC investing in j16 and j15 and possibly having some variant of j31 later on, as well as expected jh7 class (possibly even some new jh7 successor), as those q5 planes are nearly obsolete and will need replacements and even jh7 themselves would need replacements themselves - i bring you the following table:
View attachment 10842
Now, the list is pure speculation. Maybe j10b production won't be 30 a year. Maybe it will peak at 24 per year. In that case, some 55ish less j10b would be made for attrited total of 710-ish j10 or grand total of 2290 tactical combat planes.
The list assumes fairly small j31 production (lets say just for the navy). Mind you, this does not mean that SAC doesn't produce fc-31 for export at the same production lines. But lets assume j31 production doubles because, say, planaf wants to get rid of their older ground based planes with j31 variant as well. 24 per year peak for j31 would result in 70 or so more j31 produced for attrited total of 2400ish planes for the whole chinese air forces.
j20 production may also be higher, reaching 24 or so per year. That's 40 more in total or perhaps 2380 planes.
Of course, various variations are possible. So totals may range from less than 2300 to some 2450.
Then there's speculation about volume of jh7 production and its successor. Table assumed all remaining q5 to be replaced by jh7b, then the successor replacing early jh7.
Comparing these figures with todays figures: 750-900 j7 (all j7, including jj7 variants, assuming all regiments are up to strength and no planes are in reserve); 250ish j8 (including recce variants) 420ish flanker variants, 300ish j10, 250ish jh7, 200-250 q5 (including conversion trainers) for a total of 2070 - 2270
If one wanted to match current numbers in 2030, one would thus certainly assume less than 30 j10b produced per year. Perhaps even less than 20 jh7 produced per year. Maybe even j20 ramp-up would be even slower. Maybe jh7b successor would be produced at SAC, with j31 not entering chinese service, with XAC effectivelly ceasing tactical combat airplane production.
The table, as is, does seem a bit off, assuming larger production than necessary to upkeep current force levels. Then again, carrier borne planes may be added to today's force without PLANAF losing their ground based fighter component. To equip 4 carriers by 2030 increase of some 170ish planes may be realistic.
