Stealth penalty, since you'd have an exposed gap. A FC-31 in the PLAAF/PLANAF arsenal would be an attempt to make a purer stealth design than the J-20, since canards slightly detract from some elements of stealth when tailed.
Future PLA combat aircraft composition
- Thread starter Totoro
- Start date
Not possible unless significant advancements are made in the field of laser weapons.
Laser weapons need a long, rotatable cylinder to hold the lasing material. Putting them where J-20 holds PL-10 would limit them to an extremely narrow forward field of view.
lol bruh
vesicles
Colonel
I don't get the logic of this... The PLAAF has J-20 and they should be buying the Su-57 in bulk?! How does that mitigate the "failure" of the J-20? They are not integrating the Su-57 with the J-20... Whatever "failure" of the J-20 will still be associated with the J-20 after a million Su-57's have been purchased...
Even IF (a huge if) the Su-57 is slightly better, buying the Su-57 is a huge waste of money. With the design and manufacturing of the J-20, the Chinese have mastered the stealth technology. At this point, they should focus on the J-20 and pour in as much resources as possible to push the J-20 technology and incorporate these new techs into their future designs. At the same time, they should focus on improving these stealth techs and think ways to revolutionize the stealth techs into the next gen fighters. They also need to figure out any shortcomings of the J-20 design, BY THEMSELVES. Stop relying on someone else to solve your own problems! You have some problems with your product? Figure it out yourself! Don't run to your mommy and cry for help at the first sign of a problem! Diverting from this path in any way would be a waste of money, time, talent and anything else we can think of. They need to focus! Focus! Focus!
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Please stop. China doesn't give a crap what western "experts" thinks of her aircrafts.
The su-57 does not fit into what China envisioned for the air force going forward and will not procure any unless Russia begs.
The j20 is not a failure by any measure, all insiders are saying it's surpassed all parameters they settled for when they started design (I actually talked to people who designed this).
Not canards. I'm talking about the vertical stabilizers.
Fully rotatable designs instead of rudders are better for stealth. Correct me if I'm wrong but making them fully rotatable (like on the J20 and su57) provides greater control surface, so you don't need to make them as big (such as on the F22 and F35).
If PLANAF wants a stealthier jet than the J20, It would make sense for it have the fully rotatable design.
The point isn't that the J-20 is a failure, the point is that the Su-57 is being produced internally for 40-50 million. That is far cheaper than both the F-35 and the J-20, implying that it's suitable as a supplement to the J-20 and its derivatives.
I am not saying that China should abandon or reduce J-20 production; Chengdu has apparently already halted J-10C deliveries, implying that the PLAAF is going all-in on J-20s right now. But if the Chinese somehow need a low-end fighter to supplement the J-20, the Russians are already promising to sell it.
There is no reason to get into a nationalistic jiffy about the so-called superiority of Russian aerospace (they're still ahead in design innovation, and TBH China should get in on LEVCONs, and Item 30 is more mature than WS-15 to date). The point isn't buying Russian aircraft because they're better than Chinese aircraft, but because Russian production is extremely cheap with exchange rate fluctuations. From my point of view, it doesn't even matter if the Su-57 dies in droves; as long as it can be purchased cheaply and fight adequately, it's a sufficient replacement for the J-10s the PLAAF just discontinued.
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And if the Chinese buy the Su-57, well, the Chinese have just gotten in on EVERY single design paradigm for 5th gens. The F-22 / F-35-class is cloned by the J-XY / FC-31, the Su-57-type is cloned by, well, the Su-57, and the Chinese have their own J-20 direction. The Americans are stuck with their own design paradigm, the Russians are stuck with their Su-57, but the Chinese have all three. It's actually very promising for Chinese aerospace development because, barring engines, they know what everyone is doing, and are therefore in position to get into the top of the pack in 6th and 7th.
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But this thread isn't related to the Su-57, but rather to sixth gens, including a modified J-20.
I am not saying that China should abandon or reduce J-20 production; Chengdu has apparently already halted J-10C deliveries, implying that the PLAAF is going all-in on J-20s right now. But if the Chinese somehow need a low-end fighter to supplement the J-20, the Russians are already promising to sell it.
There is no reason to get into a nationalistic jiffy about the so-called superiority of Russian aerospace (they're still ahead in design innovation, and TBH China should get in on LEVCONs, and Item 30 is more mature than WS-15 to date). The point isn't buying Russian aircraft because they're better than Chinese aircraft, but because Russian production is extremely cheap with exchange rate fluctuations. From my point of view, it doesn't even matter if the Su-57 dies in droves; as long as it can be purchased cheaply and fight adequately, it's a sufficient replacement for the J-10s the PLAAF just discontinued.
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And if the Chinese buy the Su-57, well, the Chinese have just gotten in on EVERY single design paradigm for 5th gens. The F-22 / F-35-class is cloned by the J-XY / FC-31, the Su-57-type is cloned by, well, the Su-57, and the Chinese have their own J-20 direction. The Americans are stuck with their own design paradigm, the Russians are stuck with their Su-57, but the Chinese have all three. It's actually very promising for Chinese aerospace development because, barring engines, they know what everyone is doing, and are therefore in position to get into the top of the pack in 6th and 7th.
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But this thread isn't related to the Su-57, but rather to sixth gens, including a modified J-20.
As always Inst, you manage to produce arguments that rely on premises other people would consider to be dubious... and taking those dubious premises and speaking with an air as if they were assumed to be true.
Saying something so confronting and confusing just results in the forum having a "several people are typing" reaction given the responses made already to you above.
... But for the purpose of anyone who might be considering your proposal, I'll address the problematic premises for the sake of education.
1. Su-57s won't be exported at their domestic internal cost that Russia claims, and given how much Su-35s cost for the PLA to procure, I expect any purchase of Su-57s to be significantly higher.
2. By the time Russia sorts its Su-57 production out and is able to export Su-57s after fulfilling their own initial orders (late 2020s), procurement and operating costs of J-20 and J-XY/J-35 will have reduced further.
3. Introducing a whole different foreign aircraft that will be dependent on foreign servicing, logistics and upgrades would be nonsensical at the stage of where the Chinese aerospace industry and PLA requirements are, and before you propose a "PLA specced Su-57" -- note that is just going to increase the cost further and cause further time needed for such a variant to be developed, as well as requiring an entirely new maintenance and logistics infrastructure to be bought to support such a fleet.
4. We don't even know what the true equivalent cost of J-20 and Su-57 are in comparison to F-35, so we don't even know if Su-57 is cheaper on a per unit basis, let alone operation costs.
5. We don't even know if J-10C production has ceased, and if it has ceased, if it is temporary or permanent. I somehow significantly doubt it is permanent and I'm not even sure why Scramble thinks J-10C production has ceased in any form at this stage so far.
6. Any purchase of Su-57s would necessitate it to be compatible with the full suite of PLA datalinks, sensors, and weapons to allow it to effectively cooperate in the system of systems warfare that is already here with us today and which will grow in density and complexity into the future.
7. This is all assuming that the capabilities and mission profile of Su-57 is something the PLA desires or wants as a 5th generation aircraft of their own in the first place.
8. I'm not sure what "J-20 failure" claims you're talking about in your prior post, but again you seem very able to project dubious claims as if they were positions that were widely held or obvious.
9. We don't know exactly when the first Chinese 6th gen will emerge; but before Wang of CAC said it would be in service before 2035. Whether it means flying a demonstrator or prototype by 2025 or late 2020s, who knows, but a big part of your argument seems to assume such an aircraft would just be a tailless J-20 rather than a clean sheet aircraft.
10. Even if somehow, hypothetically, J-10C production has ceased "permanently" (which again, we have no evidence that it is the case), it certainly would not imply the PLAAF is going "all in" on J-20 given J-16s are still in production and there is a more than likely chance that they will pursue a medium weight 5th gen of some form this decade as well.
Now, this isn't to say I'm inherently against buying the Su-57 in some form in the future.
Russia is in a position where it unfortunately is incentivized to sell the Su-57 to enable their own overall MIC and their own economy, so I'm not against the PLA buying a small number of Su-57s sometime in the late 2020s just to see what the Russians have going on, but even that's dubious given even if you're buying say 24 5th generation fighters of a different and unique type, you will still need an exclusive logistics and maintenance infrastructure to support it.
But buying Su-57s en masse as a "low end fighter" makes no sense.
Exactly. A rhetorical question: if somehow China agree to export J-20 to US, would US buy some J-20s?
Absolutely. And it applies vice versa.
I think China would definitely buy some Su-57 if Russia approves the transfer, just for the purpose of study, it's a purely good deal. Let alone in some case of fight the opponent would need to prepare to counter 2 different kind of stealth fighter instead of 1, it is still an advantage.
1/3. Cost of Su-35 is inflated for China because it comes with parts and support, i.e, as long as the Sino-Russian border is open the logistics just depends on trained PLAAF personnel.
2. The Su-57 is not intrinsically a problematic type to produce, given that it's, designwise, more or less a modified Su-35. The problem is money; the Russians can't finance the full-scale replacement of their Flankers and MiGs because of the damage done to the Russian economy.
4. Do we need to source the TV show again? It's around 800 million RMB. If you look at publicized costs of J-10As, the Chinese don't seem to enjoy a cost advantage in aerospace.
6. Except the counterpoint is that it's already compatible with Russian systems. The R-37M, for instance, is a very promising Russian missile. The Su-57 fundamentally lacks the same bay length issues that plague the J-20. Adding a second inventory of Russian munitions to PLAAF equipment reduces the chances of China simply having weapons EW-countered or lacking key capabilities. Missiles are currently a key weakness of the PLAAF, while the PL-15 is excellent, it's likely outranged by the AIM-260. Comparable Russian air-to-air missiles can reach 290 km range.
7. This is assuming again that the Su-57 sucks. You're looking at yet another long-ranged heavy air superiority fighter, but for a mediumweight price.
8. You're strawmanning. I'm not implying the J-20 is a failed system, I'm saying purchasing the Su-57 has nothing to do with it failing.
9. There are rumors extant that the Chinese will get a "6th" gen up by 2025. If such rumors are credible, the easiest way to do so is simply to upgrade the J-20.
10. Which doesn't preclude purchasing Su-57s, given that China will require time to get its production up to speed. Russia provides a second production source that alleviates pressure on the Chinese MIC. Russian Su-57 fixed costs (factory, suppliers etc) can be allayed by the usual Russian export market; i.e, Russian production doesn't have to cover China alone and "neutral" countries aiming to buy Russian to avoid purchasing American for 5th gen cover the rest of fixed costs on Chinese purchases.
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As for your "long" response, the point is, if the Russians can deliver Su-57s at functional costs similar to Su-35s (i.e, would be higher, but with spares and logistics included), it's worth buying in bulk because it's worth it. RMB-RUB exchange rate is almost at its post-sanction high, given Russia's poor response to COVID-19. Once again, the main argument for purchasing Su-57s is the price.
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To put it another way, if the Russians offer to sell China Su-57s at 50 million USD a piece (which is still lower than that of the F-35), with parts and support coming in as part of a different package, would it be worthwhile to buy it? How about 20 million USD, just as a hypothetical? How low does the cost of the Su-57 have to be before it'd appear reasonable to you for China to make a bulk purchase of Su-57s?