Future PLA combat aircraft composition

crash8pilot

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I thought I would address this post because a few people have commented on it, suggesting it is a good idea.

This kind of procurement strategy would be suicidal in the medium and long term (beyond 5-10 years, and 10-20 years, respectively).


The future orbat composition of China's potential adversaries in 5-10 years and certainly after 10 years, will include many hundreds if not over 1500 5th generation fighters, the majority of which will be F-35s. Going into the 2030s that will likely begin to approach 2000+ F-35s for the US alone.
Furthermore, in the medium term it is likely AEW&C and battle management and EW and ISR aircraft will become very distributed and attritable -- i.e.: instead of single large lumbering aircraft, they will become smaller, perhaps unmanned, where losing one or two aircraft will not bring down the entire battle-space's ability to maintain situational awareness/battle management or ISR or EW.


What all this means is that no, it is not enough to simply "depend" on a relatively small force or a minority fleet of 5th generation fighters supported by 4+ generation fighters, because you are going up against a foe with 1000+ or 2000+ 5th generation fighters (depending on the time period and how you count it), and because the enemy's force multipliers will become more survivable and distributed as well.

This is also ignoring likely advances in unmanned aircraft technology, specifically air to air unmanned loyal wingman type UCAVs that will likely enhance the capability and "fleet size" of the side which fields it, which will augment the capability of manned combat aircraft by acting as secondary sensor and shooter nodes.


All this is to say that going into the next 5, 10 and 15 years, the path that the PLA's combat aviation fleet needs to take is quite obvious:
- try to move to all 5th generation fighter procurement as soon as possible and stop 4+ generation fighter production (likely not possible until the mid 2020s at the earliest), with the goal of procuring as many 5th generation fighters as the budget and fleet requirement allows
- further develop and fast track unmanned aircraft technology, with the goals of operationalizing their own loyal wingman UCAV type aircraft within 5 years, as well as operationalizing their own distributed/attritable ISR/AEWC/ISR/ELINT UAV fleet. Once mature, large scale procurement is necessary.
- 4+ generation fighters will continue to be in service and upgraded, however will be completely non-competitive against a foe who will be operating majority fleet 5th gen fighters supported by a large fleet of their own 4+ fighters and increasingly capable unmanned technologies and pre-existing formidable "legacy" AEW&C/EW/ELINT force multipliers.
- continue to try to fast track and develop 6th generation fighter technologies for a rollout preferably by 2030 if not earlier, even if it is in a "phased" manner where new capabilities are rolled into the aircraft over time.


Obviously in addition to the above fundamentals, seeking greater strike/offensive counter air capability to hit opfor air bases when their aircraft is on the ground is desirable, and that will also be pursued.
But seeking to have an air force that is able to at least match, if not outmatch the enemy in the air if you are unable to greatly hamstring their sortie rate/airbases, IMO is also essential.



.... Now, all of this isn't to say that continuing to have 4+ generation aircraft in your fleet is a bad idea -- but rather what I'm saying is that depending on how large and capable the opfor's 5th generation fleet is, you also need to have a sufficiently large and capable 5th gen fleet of your own.

Say we have three air forces:
Air Force A: has 1000 4+ generation fighters and 200 5th gen fighters
Air Force B: has 400 4+ generation fighters and 60 5th generation fighters
Air Force C: has 600 4+ generation fighters and 700 5th generation fighters


In comparing those three air forces, Air Force A's composition would obviously be able to outmatch Air Force B by virtue of not only having a larger total air fleet of fighters (in both 4+ gen and 5th gen).
However, Air Force A would likely be greatly challenged to face Air Force C which has a 5th generation fleet of 700 fighters versus Air Force A's only 200 5th generation fighters, and Air Force a's 1000 4+ generation fighters will not likely be able to pick up the slack.

In an ideal world, not only is your own air force larger than your opfor's, but also each and every single one of your aircraft is qualitatively superior than your opfor's. I don't need to describe the synergistic effects of this in a system on systems confrontation between two air forces, I'm sure.

In the real world, where air forces are limited by budgets, you have to make do with what you can.
But for the PLA, I think we also have to be realistic wrt the scale of the challenge they will be facing in the near future and how their future procurement may be shaped to approach it.

I suppose what I was suggesting is that the current J-20 configuration is not exactly a finished fifth-gen product. The WS-15 really needs to be brought along to give the J-20 the ability to supercruise, as well as thrust vectoring to make it a lethal dog fighter should a J-20 pilot ever find him/herself at the merge, and only then would it render the J-20 a true fifth-gen platform. Until then, I believe the current J-20A as it stands is a stop-gap variant to answer the PLAAF's current need for a stealth air superiority fighter if a conflict or incursion were to break out in the near future, thus giving Shenyang time and valuable experience to tinker and develop a true fifth-gen platform that can go toe for toe (and hopefully outmatch!) against the Raptor and Fat Amy in both a BVR and dogfight setting. While China's economy is booming undeniably, would it be economically/financially/strategically reasonable or viable to produce a large amount of stopgap solutions when Shenyang is at the cusp of breakthrough?

Factoring the realistic finite resources the PLA is limited to (contrary to the unlimited resources our wet dreams seemingly are made up of that allow the fielding of an all fifth-gen J-20+FC/J-31 fleet ;) ), an air tasking order composed of both forth and fifth-gen fighters I suggested in my original post (quick recap: J-20s knocks enemy aircraft out fo the sky with stealth BVR to achieve air superiority, clearing the skies for J-10/J-11s to perform fighter sweep/AWACS+tanker escort mission while J-16s knocks the door down on the ground) should formulate the backbone of the PLAAF's counter air/anti access area denial strategy within the timeframe of the next 5-10 years until a more mature J-20 and the FC/J-31 can be fielded.

Surely that'd explain why China continues to invest in the Flanker models along side the fielding/development of their fifth-gen fighter projects, progressing the J-11 all the way to the D model (giving it an AESA radar, better flight control system, EW capabilities, the ability to fire BVR PL-15 missles, and seemingly putting it on equal footing with the Su-35 as well as the Super Hornet), while pumping out more J-16s (even developing the J-16D platform to deliver the Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses mission)? I'm sure Trump, Pompeo, and their Sinophobic goons would love to field an Air Force made purely of F-22 and F-35 fighters. But at the end of the day Congress as well as the Defense and Budget subcommittees would say otherwise... and as such why the Viper, both variants of the Eagle, as well as the different variations of the Hornet models continue to play important roles in America's defense strategy as well as her ability to project power around the globe.

If we are to look at the PLAAF's fleet inventory beyond this decade into the 2030s, you'd have to imagine by that time that sixth-gen fighters would have to come into play. We're yet to know what features define the sixth-gen platform, and how these capabilities would alter PLA's strategy and the PLAAF's fleet composition to deliver said strategy. I mean heck, we are even just speculating what the imminent arrival of H-20 means for the PLA, and the objectives it can deliver strategically for the PLAAF (is it a direct parallel to the B-2/B-21? Does it render the H-6/JH-7 obsolete?), and more importantly how it would alter the PLAAF's air tasking order. While we are beginning to see the sixth-gen fighter come into shape, we only know enough to postulate what a sixth-gen fighter can do strategically, and how the PLAAF's combat fleet will be composed of.
 

Blitzo

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I suppose what I was suggesting is that the current J-20 configuration is not exactly a finished fifth-gen product. The WS-15 really needs to be brought along to give the J-20 the ability to supercruise, as well as thrust vectoring to make it a lethal dog fighter should a J-20 pilot ever find him/herself at the merge, and only then would it render the J-20 a true fifth-gen platform. Until then, I believe the current J-20A as it stands is a stop-gap variant to answer the PLAAF's current need for a stealth air superiority fighter if a conflict or incursion were to break out in the near future, thus giving Shenyang time and valuable experience to tinker and develop a true fifth-gen platform that can go toe for toe (and hopefully outmatch!) against the Raptor and Fat Amy in both a BVR and dogfight setting. While China's economy is booming undeniably, would it be economically/financially/strategically reasonable or viable to produce a large amount of stopgap solutions when Shenyang is at the cusp of breakthrough?

Factoring the realistic finite resources the PLA is limited to (contrary to the unlimited resources our wet dreams seemingly are made up of that allow the fielding of an all fifth-gen J-20+FC/J-31 fleet ;) ), an air tasking order composed of both forth and fifth-gen fighters I suggested in my original post (quick recap: J-20s knocks enemy aircraft out fo the sky with stealth BVR to achieve air superiority, clearing the skies for J-10/J-11s to perform fighter sweep/AWACS+tanker escort mission while J-16s knocks the door down on the ground) should formulate the backbone of the PLAAF's counter air/anti access area denial strategy within the timeframe of the next 5-10 years until a more mature J-20 and the FC/J-31 can be fielded.

Surely that'd explain why China continues to invest in the Flanker models along side the fielding/development of their fifth-gen fighter projects, progressing the J-11 all the way to the D model (giving it an AESA radar, better flight control system, EW capabilities, the ability to fire BVR PL-15 missles, and seemingly putting it on equal footing with the Su-35 as well as the Super Hornet), while pumping out more J-16s (even developing the J-16D platform to deliver the Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses mission)? I'm sure Trump, Pompeo, and their Sinophobic goons would love to field an Air Force made purely of F-22 and F-35 fighters. But at the end of the day Congress as well as the Defense and Budget subcommittees would say otherwise... and as such why the Viper, both variants of the Eagle, as well as the different variations of the Hornet models continue to play important roles in America's defense strategy as well as her ability to project power around the globe.

If we are to look at the PLAAF's fleet inventory beyond this decade into the 2030s, you'd have to imagine by that time that sixth-gen fighters would have to come into play. We're yet to know what features define the sixth-gen platform, and how these capabilities would alter PLA's strategy and the PLAAF's fleet composition to deliver said strategy. I mean heck, we are even just speculating what the imminent arrival of H-20 means for the PLA, and the objectives it can deliver strategically for the PLAAF (is it a direct parallel to the B-2/B-21? Does it render the H-6/JH-7 obsolete?), and more importantly how it would alter the PLAAF's air tasking order. While we are beginning to see the sixth-gen fighter come into shape, we only know enough to postulate what a sixth-gen fighter can do strategically, and how the PLAAF's combat fleet will be composed of.

The J-20A as it is obviously has some certain limitations compared to the eventual J-20 with WS-15, however it is still very much many times more capable than any other 4+ generation fighter in the PLA's inventory. If they had the finances and means to mass produce and commission 100+ J-20As a year then they would be doing so right now.
It has nothing to do with whether J-20A is a "finished" product or not because it's not like the lack of WS-15 is a crippling factor to its overall combat capability.

The reason why China continues to buy 4+ generation aircraft like Flanker variants and J-10 variants is because they do not yet have the ability to mass produce 5th generation fighters at sufficiently low cost nor does the air force have a sufficiently capable infrastructure (both physical and human resources pov) to absorb an all 5th generation fleet so quickly.

Limitations of budget, cost, infrastructure and human resources is both a limitation for the PLA and the US.


However, for the PLA point of view they will still be facing a very large and capable opfor fleet in its region both from the US and US allies, and my main objection is the idea that the PLA can somehow skimp out on having only a small number of 5th generation aircraft.

While the PLA may not need (nor be able) to have a full or majority 5th generation fighter fleet in the next 5-10 years, that doesn't mean that such a force orbat isn't preferable.
That is my main objection to the idea that " With that game plan in mind, don't think the PLAAF need a large amount of 5th gen fighters to clear up the sky" -- because your game plan doesn't consider the kind of opfor force that the PLA will be facing.
 

caohailiang

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Quick reply to Bltizo:

I absolute agree with you that it is indeed essential for China to continue to build up its 5th fleet to a sufficient size in order to effectively counter her adversaries. On top, I also fully agree with you about the future path China should take with regard to unmanned and 6th gen systems. That being said, where we differ in opinion is how large that 5th gen air force needs to be for the coming 10-20 years. The point I was trying to make is that China really does not need to match her adversaries on 1-on-1 basis in terms of 5th gen in order to be effective. If in the next 10-20 years 50% of PLAAF fighters is 5th gen, then that is likely sufficient.

Previously I've touched upon some underlying arguments. Cost is an obvious one, cost of procurement, maintenance, and replacement etc. With cost of replacement being especially relevant in an all out war of attrition.

Second, having a mix of 4th gen and 5th gen allows so much more operational and tactical flexibility which is really hard to achieve with 5th gen alone. In fact I'd be less worried about an opponent with say 1000 F35s and 200 F22s, compared to an opponent with say 600 J20s and 600 J16s. Remember that a war is not fought in isolated spaces between fighter jets alone. The most formidable fighting force is one that can outfight the enemy in multiple domains and one that can quickly change and adapt its fighting strategies. In that regard, the combination of J20 and J16 is able to offer so much more flexibility which you simply cannot achieve with F35 and F22 alone. Just a simple example to make a point: if J16s, guarded by J20s, are used to take out the enemy airfields, what use do you have for those 5th gen aircraft, as the 5th gen are not able to return the favor as effectively? (given load out, sorties rates etc).

And lastly, like you mentioned, with the advancement in unmanned systems, sensors, electronic countermeasures, the advantage of 5th gen vs 4th gen will only get further eroded. This is an additional reason why I'm opposed to blindly focusing on producing 5th gen en masse just for the sake of reaching numerical parity. Those funds could find much better use elsewhere.
Why j20 is not as effective as j16 in taking out enemy airfield?
 

Blitzo

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Quick reply to Bltizo:

I absolute agree with you that it is indeed essential for China to continue to build up its 5th fleet to a sufficient size in order to effectively counter her adversaries. On top, I also fully agree with you about the future path China should take with regard to unmanned and 6th gen systems. That being said, where we differ in opinion is how large that 5th gen air force needs to be for the coming 10-20 years. The point I was trying to make is that China really does not need to match her adversaries on 1-on-1 basis in terms of 5th gen in order to be effective. If in the next 10-20 years 50% of PLAAF fighters is 5th gen, then that is likely sufficient.

Previously I've touched upon some underlying arguments. Cost is an obvious one, cost of procurement, maintenance, and replacement etc. With cost of replacement being especially relevant in an all out war of attrition.

Second, having a mix of 4th gen and 5th gen allows so much more operational and tactical flexibility which is really hard to achieve with 5th gen alone. In fact I'd be less worried about an opponent with say 1000 F35s and 200 F22s, compared to an opponent with say 600 J20s and 600 J16s. Remember that a war is not fought in isolated spaces between fighter jets alone. The most formidable fighting force is one that can outfight the enemy in multiple domains and one that can quickly change and adapt its fighting strategies. In that regard, the combination of J20 and J16 is able to offer so much more flexibility which you simply cannot achieve with F35 and F22 alone. Just a simple example to make a point: if J16s, guarded by J20s, are used to take out the enemy airfields, what use do you have for those 5th gen aircraft, as the 5th gen are not able to return the favor as effectively? (given load out, sorties rates etc).

And lastly, like you mentioned, with the advancement in unmanned systems, sensors, electronic countermeasures, the advantage of 5th gen vs 4th gen will only get further eroded. This is an additional reason why I'm opposed to blindly focusing on producing 5th gen en masse just for the sake of reaching numerical parity. Those funds could find much better use elsewhere.

I don't want to give a specific number or fraction of the PLA's fighter fleet for what would be "sufficient" for the PLA's needs wrt 5th generation fighters, but my point is more that the primary limitations is funding and industry capacity/experience (both in turn determining military infrastructure/human resources and the ability of them to absorb a large fleet of 5th gen fighters).

Let's be honest here, if you had the money for it, having a fleet 1000 5th generation fighters would be better than having a fleet of 500 5th generation fighters and 500 4+ generation fighters.
If you had the budget +/- industry +/- military capacity for it, having 1000 5th generation fighters would be better than having 500 5th gen + 500 4+ gen --but as it goes, the former will cost much more than the latter.


I'm just pointing out that I think this conversation over the last few days has taken the approach of "what is the best way to approach the opportunity cost of having a finite budget/industry/military capacity" and somehow construed that into an automatic "this is sufficient for the PLA to meet its future challenges" sort of narrative rather than admitting "this is the best the PLA can hope for in context of a limited budget/industry/military capacity but they will face shortfalls".


The way I'm approaching this problem is in reverse, by first asking "what does the PLA need to meet its future challenges" and then asking "what is the minimum realistic level of industry/military capacity and budget that the PLA will need to meet those challenges and where are the shortfalls that are unacceptable and need to be filled".

That's why the statement from crash8pilot a few days back saying -- "With that game plan in mind, don't think the PLAAF need a large amount of 5th gen fighters to clear up the sky" -- absolutely floors me.



===

As to what you said here: "In fact I'd be less worried about an opponent with say 1000 F35s and 200 F22s, compared to an opponent with say 600 J20s and 600 J16s" -- that also very much confuses me.

I would certainly be much more worried about an opponent with 1000 F-35s and 200 F-22s than 600 J-20s and 600 J-16s.
Assuming both air forces have the requisite infrastructure and human resources to fund and effectively operate and arm their respective fleets, the 1000 F-35s and 200 F-22s will absolutely wipe the floor with 600 J-20s and 600 J-16s.

I think you underestimate the sheer difference in capability in having a large number of 5th generation fighters makes compared to a numerically equivalent fleet made up of a significant part of 4th generation fighters, and underestimate the sheer flexibility, range and payload of the F-35 as well.
It costs much more to operate the 1000 F-35s+200 F-22s than the 600 J-20s+600 J-16s, but they are also much more capable.
 

FangYuan

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China currently has two stealth aircraft, the J-20 and the J-31. At the same time they are developing the J-35 stealth aircraft.
In the future, China may have two other stealth fighters, the J-10D (developed from J-10) and the Su-57 (from Russia and receiving TOT).
 

Deino

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China currently has two stealth aircraft, the J-20 and the J-31. At the same time they are developing the J-35 stealth aircraft.
In the future, China may have two other stealth fighters, the J-10D (developed from J-10) and the Su-57 (from Russia and receiving TOT).


No, just in short no.

They have actually one - the J-20 - abd the second - the J-35 - is in development based on the FC-31, which is not a stealth fighter but a stealthy demonstrator, nothing more.

Also, all these reports on a stealth J-10D are IMO fan-hyped wet-dreams or at best unrealistic ideas, since you cannot develop the J-10 into a true stealth fighter, at best you can make it stealthy.
And concerning the Su-57 ... IMO never, especially since China won't get ToT.
 

Nobonita Barua

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No, just in short no.

They have actually one - the J-20 - abd the second - the J-35 - is in development based on the FC-31, which is not a stealth fighter but a stealthy demonstrator, nothing more.

Also, all these reports on a stealth J-10D are IMO fan-hyped wet-dreams or at best unrealistic ideas, since you cannot develop the J-10 into a true stealth fighter, at best you can make it stealthy.
And concerning the Su-57 ... IMO never, especially since China won't get ToT.
Why built a non-stealth fighter based on stealth fighter?
I thought FC31 is stealth?
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By the way,

Are you Andreas Rupprecht mentioned here? It mentions one of book you mentioned earlier & mentions your twitter account :-O
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Deino

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Why built a non-stealth fighter based on stealth fighter?
I thought FC31 is stealth?
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By the way,

Are you Andreas Rupprecht mentioned here? It mentions one of book you mentioned earlier & mentions your twitter account :-O
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Yes that's me and I'm sure the J-35 will be a fully fledged stealth fighter but one must admit, that the FC-31 is simply a demonstrator.
 
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