Bltizo (why not blitzo?) said this in another thread:
"a PLAAF of the mid 2030s should aim for:
400 J-20s
100+ H-18s
40 H-20s
120+ (?) legacy H-6Ks
800-1000 J-10 and flanker variants"
which made me think and write the following:
that's some 1600 combat aircraft. compared to some 1700 that plaaf has today. that in itself seems fine, but i have an inkling feeling the author may have meant plaaf and planaf together, even though he just wrote plaaf. if so, the drop in numbers would be too big.
That is a good point, one which I hadn't considered.
I left out the PLAN's carrierborne fighters -- and for argument's sake we can project that to be some 200+ strong dispersed among 4-5 carriers.
This raises the question of just how the PLANAF will be structured in future once the navy has a few carriers. In any case, I expect their fighter force to be predominantly carrier based. I had included their naval land based bombers with the previous projection.
(Bltizo because when I registered I did a typo. I couldn't log in for ages because I kept putting in the correct spelling. I eagerly anticipate the day SDF allows us to modify our usernames)
300 j20 (average figure. it could very well go to 400)
150 j21/31
1100 j10/flankers
100 jh7
50-ish small bombers
50 ?? larger bombers
100-ish h6k?
That figure seems too heavy on the bombers, really. It looks more plausible those small bombers in in fact be jhx and that we might get a bigger number of them, say 100, by 2035.
overall that version might give us something like 150 bombers and 1750 strikers/fighters. Which is a bit of a drop from today, but not too big of a drop. 400 j20 would indeed make the overall figure very close to today's figure and also make chinese air power not lose its numbers like USAF isn't planning to lose its. And that is what plaaf and planaf should aim for, in my opinion. What will come of it is another matter, subject to geopolitics and future economy.
I'm just describing the large flying wing as H-20 and the supersonic striker as H-18 for ease of comprehension.
The main question we need to ask, is what kind of missions does the PLAAF want to undertake in the future and what is the most cost effective way to do it?
I envision a force of 150 J-21s as... well not quite "redundant" per se, but rather that money could be better spent elsewhere to produce more J-20s or H-18s. J-21 will have the same limits as F-35. Inability to carry large payloads internally across long distances without tanker support. That's one reason why I think F-35 is not the best fit to USAF's requirements in westpac, because it simply doesn't have the range, payload, and endurance to fulfill the missions to conduct sorties well into China without tankers. And remember that tankers are not only vulnerable to air attacks, but also to long range missile strikes or long range stealthy strikers (like H-18) too.
J-21 may find a home aboard PLAN carriers, but I'd hope PLAAF would instead invest more in H-18, H-20 and J-20. SAC may be able to produce a stealthy flanker (J-11D -- like superhornet?) once J-11B, J-16 production ends to fulfill PLAAF's need for more longer range fighters.
In any case 50 H-18s is far too few for the PLA (I assume you also project some 50 H-18s for the PLANAF, in which case I'd find it agreeable)
So to revise the numbers,
PLAAF+land based PLANAF combat aircraft:
400 J-20s
1100 advanced flankers and J-10 variants (J-16, "J-11D," J-10B/C)
100+ H-18s (split between PLAAF and land based PLANAF)
40 H-20s
100+ H-6Ks
100 JH-7As (split between PLAAF and PLANAF)
Carrier based combat aircraft may include:
200+ J-15s and/or J-21s
If PLANAF do indeed go for J-21, PLAAF may find it an attractive prospect as well. But again the big question is cost. If it costs only a little bit more than a late model J-10 variant, then I would argue the PLAAF should procure J-21 instead. If it costs twice as much, then I'd say go for the J-10 and use the difference to invest in more H-18s.
I do foresee the flanker as a continuing integral part of the PLAAF for many years to come, and I think the idea of a J-11D is quite attractive, if the price is right.
At the end of the day, my opinion of J-21 purely depends on its cost, and by association that means its avionics and how comprehensive its stealth capabilities are. We should also consider that a new J-11D or J-10D may field similar level avionics to J-21 but will suffer the double edged sword of not being stealth aircraft, meaning they'll probably have higher sortie rates but naturally will suffer a far larger RCS.
In terms of production:
Xi'an will be occupied with Y-20, H-20, and possibly H-6K, post 2020. (If they produce a regiment of 15 H-6K per year, they could reach 120 airframes in 8 years, aka five or six more years, which would be a perfect time to start H-20 assuming the prototype flies within one or two years)
Chengdu will be occupied with J-20, J-10B/C post 2020
Shenyang will be occupied with H-18, J-16/J-11D, possibly J-15 post 2020
I feel there is still some spare capacity, which may be filled by various UAV programmes. Alternately, there is also room for Chengdu or Shenyang to produce a naval J-20 or J-21 for the navy's 5th gen project, which we should also expect.
We shouldn't ignore Shaanxi either. I expect they'll be busy with producing KJ-500s, GX aircraft of various variants, not to mention vanilla Y-9s for many years.
Ultimately I'd like to see a fleet of maybe 30 AEWC (4 KJ-2000, 12 KJ-200s, and 14 KJ-500s) before PLA slows down AEWC procurement and starts R and D of a new generation of standardized AEWC (hopefully on a civilian jetliner platform). That's not to say we should desire Shaanxi to build a surge of KJ-500s. If anything, the Y-8FQ ASW aircraft is of greater importance, and should aim for a JSDF level of 120 by the time production's ended. Then there are the various ELINT, EW/ECM, command post and ground GX aircraft the PLA needs to become a truly competent and rounded air force, not to mention a need to overhaul and improve their mediocre transport fleet...
If all goes well, by 2035 the PLAAF will be where it finally needs to be to be the air force China needs
