Food & Resource Security

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
This didn't get posted in this thread but it is good recent reference:

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In addition to recognised health benefits, plant proteins also have an environmental advantage. Each 1kg of soybeans produced provides 56 per cent more protein – and 48 times fewer carbon emissions – than its equivalent in beef, for example.

According to the FAO food balance sheets, animal products like meat, fish, eggs, and dairy dominated US protein supply in 2021 by 69 per cent. In contrast, China’s supply of animal protein was around half that of the United States.
China’s protein supply contained more vegetal sources, with vegetables, fruits, beans, nuts, seeds, and wheat, oat, rice, barley, maize and their products making up 60.5 per cent.

The FAO data showed that China’s daily per capita protein supply rose by 15.81 grams (0.55oz) from 2010 to 2021, with around two-thirds derived from vegetal products. Nearly all of the 5.31 grams (0.18oz) US increase was attributed to animal products.
 

Onys

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Totally agree. I’ve noticed over the years that China’s been stockpiling a lot—grains, oil, metals, you name it. It’s something I’ve kept an eye on because I trade commodities, and every time they ramp up buying, it moves the market. It really feels like they’re preparing for anything, whether that’s economic instability or something bigger like a Taiwan conflict. Hard to ignore the strategy behind it.
 

GulfLander

Captain
Registered Member
"China set a grain production record of 706.5 million tonnes in 2024, an increase of 1.6% from last year’s output, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data. It also marked the first time the country’s grain harvest topped 700 million tonnes.

China’s state-owned grain reserve enterprises are expected to purchase around 420 million tonnes of grain from farmers and producers this year, which will mark the second consecutive year that the grain purchase volume is above 400 million tonnes, the Chinese government said during a national work conference on food and strategic reserves that concluded on Dec. 26.

The country has strengthened the organization and coordination of grain purchasing and taken multiple measures to smooth the channels for farmers to sell grains, Chinese officials said.

The purchase of autumn grains is being accelerated, with corn purchase work entering a peak period in the country’s northern and northeastern regions, said Liu Huanxin, head of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. With the growing volume of reserves, the scale of China’s grain storage facilities is also increasing year by year, effectively meeting grain storage needs, Liu said.

By the end of 2023, the official said the capacity of China’s standard warehouses in good condition exceeded 700 million tonnes, an increase of 36% compared to 2014.

Earlier this week, China launched a decade-long plan to boost consumption of cereal grains and develop the industry through higher production standards, research and international cooperation as part of efforts to enhance food security. The 2024-2035 action plan, jointly issued by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and other government departments, also encourages companies and private capital to establish development funds to support the whole grain industry."
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antiterror13

Brigadier
"China set a grain production record of 706.5 million tonnes in 2024, an increase of 1.6% from last year’s output, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data. It also marked the first time the country’s grain harvest topped 700 million tonnes.

China’s state-owned grain reserve enterprises are expected to purchase around 420 million tonnes of grain from farmers and producers this year, which will mark the second consecutive year that the grain purchase volume is above 400 million tonnes, the Chinese government said during a national work conference on food and strategic reserves that concluded on Dec. 26.

The country has strengthened the organization and coordination of grain purchasing and taken multiple measures to smooth the channels for farmers to sell grains, Chinese officials said.

The purchase of autumn grains is being accelerated, with corn purchase work entering a peak period in the country’s northern and northeastern regions, said Liu Huanxin, head of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. With the growing volume of reserves, the scale of China’s grain storage facilities is also increasing year by year, effectively meeting grain storage needs, Liu said.

By the end of 2023, the official said the capacity of China’s standard warehouses in good condition exceeded 700 million tonnes, an increase of 36% compared to 2014.

Earlier this week, China launched a decade-long plan to boost consumption of cereal grains and develop the industry through higher production standards, research and international cooperation as part of efforts to enhance food security. The 2024-2035 action plan, jointly issued by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and other government departments, also encourages companies and private capital to establish development funds to support the whole grain industry."
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Can we safely say that China's strategic grain reserve storage is at least 700 million tonnes ?
 

lcloo

Captain
Can we safely say that China's strategic grain reserve storage is at least 700 million tonnes ?
That is definitely a strategic level of grain storage. 700 million tones divide by 18 months and divide by China's population of 1.4 billion would be like 28Kg of grain per person per month.

If we divide by 24 months, that would be 21Kg of grain per person per month.

Alternatively:-
If one person consumes 300 grams of grain per day, 700 million tons can feed 1 person for 1,667 days, or
if one person consumes 500 grams of grain per day, there is enough grain to feed a person for 1,000 days.
 

tonyget

Senior Member
Registered Member
There is only so much farmland in China, which is not enough for everything Chinese people needs. The trade-off Chinese gov made,is to prioritize staple grain,import stock feed and oil crops from outside. In 2023,China imported 160 million ton of food.

According to Chinese official,China is self-sufficient in crops,but not in meat, that is the reason why China has to import so much crops for stock feed.

The reliance on import crops has risen alert among Chinese leadership. That's why China is pursuing a "soybean protein substitution" policy

农业农村部办公厅近日印发的《饲用豆粕减量替代三年行动方案》明确提出,在确保畜禽生产效率保持稳定的前提下,力争饲料中豆粕用量占比每年下降0.5个百分点以上,到2025年饲料中豆粕用量占比从2022年的14.5%降至13%以下。这将进一步降低我国对进口大豆的依赖,更好地保障粮食安全。

The "Three-Year Action Plan for Reducing and Substituting Soybean Meal for Feed" recently issued by the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs clearly states that, under the premise of ensuring stable production efficiency of livestock and poultry, the proportion of soybean meal in feed should be reduced by more than 0.5 percentage points each year, and the proportion of soybean meal in feed should be reduced from 14.5% in 2022 to below 13% by 2025. This will further reduce my country's dependence on imported soybeans and better ensure food security.

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最后来看第三个问题:为何我国粮食连年丰收,进口还在不断增长?海关总署此前公布了一组数据,2023年1-10月,我国累计进口粮食量12993万吨,同比增长7.3%,一时间引发热议。从根源上说,粮食产量和进口量“双增”,还是因为我们的消费量增长了。一方面,过去长期以来,我国人口总数持续增长,吃饭的嘴越来越多,消耗量越来越大。另一方面,伴随着城镇化的进程,人们生活水平的提高带来消费结构的变化,也极大地推动了粮食消费量的增加。过去十年间,我国人均肉类的消费就增长了35%,这必然带来饲料用粮的增长。俗话说,一斤肉五斤粮,老百姓每一份蛋白质、热量的获取,从“吃得饱”到“吃得好”的每一次进阶,既是质的提升,也离不开量的保障。

从进口结构上看,我国粮食进口以饲料用粮为主。今年1-10月,大豆、玉米、大麦、高粱等传统意义上的饲料用粮进口量占粮食进口总量的87.6%,进口小麦占比虽然达到了8.3%,但相当一部分是作为玉米的替代,同样用于饲料加工。从渠道来看,也从以往高度集中于个别国家向多元化发展。与饲用相比,用于口粮的进口粮食占比并不大,且主要用于品种调剂。当前,我国口粮的自给率在100%以上,谷物自给率在95%以上,人均粮食占有量超过485公斤,高于国际公认的400公斤粮食安全线。饲料粮的供给问题当然不能忽视,但是只要“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的战略底线守住了,中国人“吃饭”就出不了大问题,我们发展的主动权就能牢牢掌握在自己手中。

Finally, let's look at the third question: Why is my country's grain harvest bumper year after year, and imports are still growing? The General Administration of Customs previously released a set of data. From January to October 2023, my country's cumulative grain imports amounted to 129.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, which caused heated discussions for a while. From the root, the "double increase" in grain production and imports is still because our consumption has increased. On the one hand, for a long time in the past, my country's total population has continued to grow, and there are more and more mouths to eat, and the consumption is getting bigger and bigger. On the other hand, with the process of urbanization, the improvement of people's living standards has brought about changes in consumption structure, which has also greatly promoted the increase in grain consumption. In the past ten years, my country's per capita meat consumption has increased by 35%, which will inevitably lead to an increase in feed grain. As the saying goes, one catty of meat is five catties of grain. Every protein and calorie obtained by the people, every advancement from "eating enough" to "eating well", is not only a qualitative improvement, but also inseparable from the guarantee of quantity.

From the perspective of import structure, my country's grain imports are mainly feed grain. From January to October this year, the import volume of traditional feed grains such as soybeans, corn, barley, and sorghum accounted for 87.6% of the total grain imports. Although the proportion of imported wheat reached 8.3%, a considerable part of it was used as a substitute for corn and was also used for feed processing. From the perspective of channels, it has also developed from being highly concentrated in individual countries to diversification. Compared with feed, the proportion of imported grains used for food is not large, and it is mainly used for variety adjustment. At present, my country's food self-sufficiency rate is above 100%, the grain self-sufficiency rate is above 95%, and the per capita grain possession exceeds 485 kilograms, which is higher than the internationally recognized food security line of 400 kilograms. The supply of feed grains cannot be ignored, but as long as the strategic bottom line of "basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute food security" is maintained, there will be no major problems with the Chinese people's "eating", and the initiative of our development can be firmly in our own hands.
 
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