Financial Markets Around World
- Thread starter 4Runner
- Start date
I don't see the bottomw, as the trade war only getting worse.
Cash might be worthless if things progress at the current rate.
It all depends on the state of the bigly brain at any given moment. Hence I use "likely" or "very likely" or "less likely". If my judgement on that nobody is really crazy nonetheless is poorly acting holds any water, the S&P 500 is starting a bottom process, based on my calculation of US economic fundamentals. In that regards, whether it trades at 4800 level or at 5200 level is not that different in a bottoming process, which is a historically typical buying period of time. I will re-evaluate my judgement if S&P 500 decidedly close below 4800 and stay there for longer than 10 trading days. This bottoming process can last less than 6 weeks (new normal) or longer than 12 months (historical pattern). Since the US equity markets were fundamentally distorted after Obama changed the accounting rules before the March 9th 2009, topping and bottoming of US stock markets have become more dramatic. However, those fiscal and monetary wiggle rooms were finally exhausted during Biden admin, I think we may see a trajectory back toward historical patterns. So my research at this juncture calls for the starting of a bottoming process for S&P 500 and I am buying incrementally, one trunk at a time whenever those quant boys allow me ...
These days the stock market behaves no differently than a memecoin.
No wonder guys like Buffett are just going into US treasuries. He knows even the equities market is kinda fucked.
The Dollar Store Paradox:
Tariffs will inflate goods to unprecedented level across box stores, malls, online shops and outlets for American consumers who will turn to their "dollar" stores in greater numbers to supplement rapidly declining purchasing power but those dollar stores are dependent on Chinese goods that are taxed at 104% and subjected to the massive anti-Chinese shipping fees and will be out of business unless they sharply raise prices.
The Dollar Store Paradox will be a death knell to a perculiar American way of life since globalization and that is hyper consumerism that allowed Apple, Amazon and Walmart to flourish. You won't be buying at a whim if things cost 50 to 100% more all of a sudden and you won't be chasing after a new Iphone model when it costs fucking $2000 to $3000 each time.
The valuations of everything from Costco to Apple to Tesla will need to be recalibrated when the Dollar Store Paradox hits and the current American consumer buys but like a shadow of her former glory.
Tariffs will inflate goods to unprecedented level across box stores, malls, online shops and outlets for American consumers who will turn to their "dollar" stores in greater numbers to supplement rapidly declining purchasing power but those dollar stores are dependent on Chinese goods that are taxed at 104% and subjected to the massive anti-Chinese shipping fees and will be out of business unless they sharply raise prices.
The Dollar Store Paradox will be a death knell to a perculiar American way of life since globalization and that is hyper consumerism that allowed Apple, Amazon and Walmart to flourish. You won't be buying at a whim if things cost 50 to 100% more all of a sudden and you won't be chasing after a new Iphone model when it costs fucking $2000 to $3000 each time.
The valuations of everything from Costco to Apple to Tesla will need to be recalibrated when the Dollar Store Paradox hits and the current American consumer buys but like a shadow of her former glory.
We're all mega-doomers, so I can only hope the line goes up and stock market goes down.
