The U.S.
prides itself on being the “tip of the spear,” but in East Asia, the “Green Knights” of Marine Fighter Attack Sqdn.-121 (VMFA-121) are more like the tip of the iceberg, as the first of dozens of war-ready
squadrons being stationed in the region over the next decade.
By the early 2020s, North Korea will be confronted by more than 100 of the U.S.’s latest fifth-generation warplane, including 42 operated by Japan and 40 by South Korea, along with forward-deployments by the U.S. Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy.
Without assistance from China or Russia, North Korea would stand no chance of defending against a wave of low-observable Joint Strike Fighters, which would be used to clear the air of opposing jets, hunt down rogue missiles, and protect advancing ground troops. The stealth jets would be virtually unopposed by Pyongyang’s outdated inventory of former Soviet and independently developed radars and surface-to-air missiles.
Security analysts with Rand Corporation say the introduction of these modern fighters highlights North Korea’s “significant conventional disadvantage.” This disadvantage is one key reason why the North Korean regime, led by Kim Jong-un, is so adamant about operationalizing nuclear weapons and ramping up the development of missiles as delivery vehicles.
North Korea reportedly possesses up to three nuclear enrichment facilities and potentially as many as 30-60 nuclear warheads. It appears to have three intercontinental ballistic missiles in concurrent development, including the two-stage Hwasong-14 type that was launched twice in July.
The regime views nuclear weapons as the ultimate hedge against invasion by Western forces. Any pre-emptive strike attempted by coalition forces could quickly escalate to nuclear war, with short-range missiles likely striking military bases and major cities in South Korea and Japan.
“They understand that they’ve got a significant conventional disadvantage with their armed forces, particularly in aviation,” says J.D. Williams, a senior defense policy researcher at Rand.
“If you look at the approaches North Korea has taken under the current leader and before, they’re looking at asymmetric ways of offsetting the fact that they’re falling farther and farther behind in their conventional capabilities.”
North Korea has invested heavily in nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and special operations forces at the expense of more complex aircraft and air defense weaponry. The Korean People’s Army Air Force still retains hundreds of early-model Chinese and Soviet fighters, as well as Vietnam-era SA-3s, SA-5s and more modern S-200 surface-to-air missiles. Its most modern SAM, the KN-06, was demonstrated earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Republic of Korea Air Force operates Northrop F-5s,
, Lockheed
and KAI FA-50s. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force operates Mitsubishi F-2s, F-15Js and has received its first few conventional-variant F-35As.
Williams says North Korea is well aware of its diminishing conventional power, and is looking for ways to inflict significant or potentially catastrophic damage against coalition forces if they attempt any military intervention. “The F-35 as a new warfighting system just adds to that trend. I don’t think we can call it a direct driver, just a continuation of a trend that’s been there for a while,” he says.
Bruce Bennett, a Rand expert on Northeast Asian military issues, says the growing disparity between the conventional forces of North Korea and its opponents is destabilizing. “North Korea can’t take those [F-35] aircraft on in the air. They can’t take them on with surface-to-air capabilities, so it pushes them to say, ‘We’ve got to take those aircraft on when they’re on the ground,’” he explains. “That drives them to think about the use of missiles and potentially nuclear weapons or other payloads against key airfields to try to neutralize that threat. Both sides have an incentive to go first.”
The Marine Corps confirms that the VMFA-121 remains operationally deployed to Iwakuni and those aircraft visited South Korea for the first time in March as part of Exercise Foal Eagle.
“Permanently basing the F-35B at MCAS Iwakuni and operating in Japan will significantly strengthen the III Marine Expeditionary Force’s ability to support the U.S.’ alliance obligations—by combining fifth-generation stealth, precision weapons, and multispectral sensors with the expeditionary responsiveness of a short-takeoff/vertical-landing fighter-attack platform,” the service says in a statement.
Air Force F-35As are also scheduled to arrive in the Pacific theater in the coming months. The service announced earlier this year that the 34th Fighter Sqdn. of Hill AFB, Utah, will deploy to the Pacific as a theater security packet. The squadron made its first overseas deployment to the UK in April, making several trips to the Baltic region for joint training.
The U.S.
plans to order 1,763 F-35As for the Air Force and 693 Stovl and carrier-based variants for the Marine Corps and Navy. The F-35A can be armed with guided B61-12 thermonuclear bombs.
Japan committed to the F-35 in December 2011 as a foreign military sale, and 38 of its 42 aircraft will be delivered from the domestic production facility in Nagoya starting this year.
Initial deliveries for South Korea start next year. The lead aircraft (AW-1) has entered the assembly line in Fort Worth. Deliveries will continue through 2021.