Expanding the Chinese Military size (Please Read and Reply) this is important

V

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Please guys get your figures right!

Chinas economy is measured in current exchange rates 2.5 times bigger than Russia´s (1.8 trn $ vs 740.7 bn $ in ´05) and in purchasing power (8.182 trn $ vs 1.539 trn $ in ´05) 5.3 times. Bringing China´s 1 trn $ currency exchange reserves and her giant trade volume of expectedly 1.7 trn $ in ´06 into the picture illustrates instructively that China plays in another league economically. Additionally the comparison of generally inflated soviet figures of the 80´s are quite misleading since the USSR produced only weapons and raw materiel (oil, gas, ore) which could be sold for $ on the world market whereas China produces today a myriad of products valued adequately by the world markets.

Of course China would act prematurely if entering a full blown arms race with the US in the next years but one should not underestimate China´s main strength: China has built up a industrial behemoth of unprecedented scale in the last ten years. China can employ a modern steel industry with a output level of 480 million tons (US can produce currently 100 million tons a p.a. maximum) a year if challenged by an aggressor and consequently steel will raining down on them in form of shells, rockets, missiles and other munitions. Although the US is superior in high tech China can put the economics of scale to good use and fully mobilized China´s industry (heavy, light, chemical and electronics) will churn out enourmous amounts of weapons.

China is stronger than some ignorant people think but some important gaps in technology have to be closed in the coming ten years and chinese industry must not only extend quantitative dominance but must also excel in quality. Accepting the geopolitical challenge of the US is the only way for eventual success for China since strategic capitulation would cost future generations of chinese dearly. :coffee:
 
K

kunmingren

Junior Member
Violet Oboe said:
Please guys get your figures right!

Chinas economy is measured in current exchange rates 2.5 times bigger than Russia´s (1.8 trn $ vs 740.7 bn $ in ´05) and in purchasing power (8.182 trn $ vs 1.539 trn $ in ´05) 5.3 times. Bringing China´s 1 trn $ currency exchange reserves and her giant trade volume of expectedly 1.7 trn $ in ´06 into the picture illustrates instructively that China plays in another league economically. Additionally the comparison of generally inflated soviet figures of the 80´s are quite misleading since the USSR produced only weapons and raw materiel (oil, gas, ore) which could be sold for $ on the world market whereas China produces today a myriad of products valued adequately by the world markets.

Of course China would act prematurely if entering a full blown arms race with the US in the next years but one should not underestimate China´s main strength: China has built up a industrial behemoth of unprecedented scale in the last ten years. China can employ a modern steel industry with a output level of 480 million tons (US can produce currently 100 million tons a p.a. maximum) a year if challenged by an aggressor and consequently steel will raining down on them in form of shells, rockets, missiles and other munitions. Although the US is superior in high tech China can put the economics of scale to good use and fully mobilized China´s industry (heavy, light, chemical and electronics) will churn out enourmous amounts of weapons.

China is stronger than some ignorant people think but some important gaps in technology have to be closed in the coming ten years and chinese industry must not only extend quantitative dominance but must also excel in quality. Accepting the geopolitical challenge of the US is the only way for eventual success for China since strategic capitulation would cost future generations of chinese dearly. :coffee:
Click to expand...


First of all, i am not ignorant, i have facts. And the fact is that the US military budget for 2006 is about 500 billion USD, about 4% of its GDP compare that to the Whole budget for the Chinese government, which is about US$375 billion USD. Western estimate of Chinese military budget is about 90 billion, which is about 4.5% of its GDP.

China may have a trillion dollars in reserve, lets not forget that its mostly in American currency, and if the US absolutely have to, it can simply print a trillion dollars.

While we often hear the US manufacturing and industrial base have gradually shifted to China, we have to remember those industries are often low end and low tech, and certainly have very little effects on the military. America still churns out advance weaponry like no other nations ex: F-22, F-35, super Carriers etc.

Most of Chinese indutries are geared toward making things like toys and clothes. when it comes to high end products like engines, China still must import machinery tools from the west. (I know this because my cousin is an engineer in China and they cant produce the engines for cars without imported machinery)

How big the soviet economy was during the eighties is not important, the point is that it still couldnt match the Americans in term of military spending (2 billion dollars for a single B-2). It should really serve as a warning to all nations that their military power and economic power must be in a balance.

The present level of spending seems to be the right amount, it may not be much compare to US, but its appropriate when considering China's resources and goals. Any large scale militarization like the one suggested here in this thread will strain the chinese economy, which will not make the future chinese any safer, it will just leave them inheriting a mess.
 
V

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Well, I am certain that you are not forgetting about toys like 150000 ts liquefied gas tankers and 300000 ts (9000 TEU) container cargo ships made by China´s advanced civilian shipbuilders in Shanghai, Dalian and Guangzhou, dear Kunmingren!:D

Besides China´s machine tool industry is already number four worldwide (real production value) right after Japan, Germany and US but ahead of Italy. Of course China has to import top level machines from Germany and Japan but they are obviously hard working to absorb the technology as fast as possible. Especially german companies are constantly complaining that inevitably after a few years the most advanced machines which they considered earlier as far too technologically complicated for their chinese counterparts are perfectly copied by them and eventually sold successfully on world markets.:D

P.S.
I am absolutely aware of the fact that the US can employ vastly more financial resources for her military than China as long as there are enough people and governments around the world including in China who are willing to finance US´s vast current account deficit. Nevertheless this situation can change in the future and China will certainly know if and when the time will have come to turn the tables.:coffee:
 
L

Lee Delbert

New Member
Registered Member
You have commented on the $1 trillion reserve,you are right US can keep printing but I don't believe they will do such things. why? it will trigger inflation on America and will cause they monetary systems to be introuble and the most important the credibility of the dollar will be gone.

I also do not believe that those B-2 bombers or F-22 are invinsible. The Russian MIG-31 were designed to hit lowflying bombers. regarding the F-22 I believe China will be going to develop its own stealth fighters soon. F-35 were still no threat at all for they are still in development.

In choosing allies, whoim can you choose in the NorthEast side? Its only Nokor who was left. It is also a worthy buffer zone. why? I repeat, If it collapse So0kor will surely took over and don't forget they were an ally of US and the US has military bases on Sokor. Inshort US can cross the border fast if a war starts. will China not be almost cornered? Japan, Taiwan, Canada has all US military bases, Philippines was an ally of US surely if there is a trouble they will allow the Americans to use their sea ports and airfeilds. In South Thailand was also an ally of US. US was already trying to sieze influence in Central Asia, if they succeeded China will be circled.

You should not also forget even though the US economy is larger than China, China was one of the nations who is filling the gap of the huge Budget deficits of US. If China will stop doing it, US will be force to spend less on its armed forces.

I am not also suggesting a large scale militarization, you can clearly see the quantity of equipments I had posted, those were not too numerous or large.

Even the size of Chinese military won't grow much because after having those new equipments, you will be disbanding the old ones like Romeo subs, Han subs, old aircrafts like MIG16's, etc. same with the tanks T-55's, etc.

I hope you get my point.
 
K

kunmingren

Junior Member
Lee Delbert said:
You have commented on the $1 trillion reserve,you are right US can keep printing but I don't believe they will do such things. why? it will trigger inflation on America and will cause they monetary systems to be introuble and the most important the credibility of the dollar will be gone.

I also do not believe that those B-2 bombers or F-22 are invinsible. The Russian MIG-31 were designed to hit lowflying bombers. regarding the F-22 I believe China will be going to develop its own stealth fighters soon. F-35 were still no threat at all for they are still in development.

In choosing allies, whoim can you choose in the NorthEast side? Its only Nokor who was left. It is also a worthy buffer zone. why? I repeat, If it collapse So0kor will surely took over and don't forget they were an ally of US and the US has military bases on Sokor. Inshort US can cross the border fast if a war starts. will China not be almost cornered? Japan, Taiwan, Canada has all US military bases, Philippines was an ally of US surely if there is a trouble they will allow the Americans to use their sea ports and airfeilds. In South Thailand was also an ally of US. US was already trying to sieze influence in Central Asia, if they succeeded China will be circled.

You should not also forget even though the US economy is larger than China, China was one of the nations who is filling the gap of the huge Budget deficits of US. If China will stop doing it, US will be force to spend less on its armed forces.

I am not also suggesting a large scale militarization, you can clearly see the quantity of equipments I had posted, those were not too numerous or large.

Even the size of Chinese military won't grow much because after having those new equipments, you will be disbanding the old ones like Romeo subs, Han subs, old aircrafts like MIG16's, etc. same with the tanks T-55's, etc.

I hope you get my point.
Click to expand...

Well Delbert, i guess we will just have to agree to disagree:( . I see where you're coming from in regards to that fact that China is surrounded by American allies.

I think we just think fundamentally differently when it comes to the security situation in Asia. i think the idea of strategetic alliance are more thing of the past, so thats why i am not too concerned about those alliances. I think soon the global market force will make warfare too destructive and expensive to be contemplated by any government official, so thats why i dont think buffer states like NKor matters that much anymore. that just my two cents.:D
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
China does not need North Korea as a buffer zone or ally. Even if the entire US and a Unified Korean military was based on the Chinese-North Korean border, I can guarantee you that that force will not get further than 100 miles into China before they are stopped by troops from a 2.5-million man army. Even if China is completely sorounded by american allies, it could not be defeated in a war on Chinese soil. The Chinese military cannot hope to compete with the US military, but even the might of the US military cannot hope to succesfully fight a war within China.
 
O

Obcession

Junior Member
Greetings Fried Rice:

I see what you're saying, but one of the main objectives of a buffer zone is to stop the fires of war from ravaging your home country. I'm sure the CCP leadership doesn't want US, Japanese, or Korean troops to ever set foot on Chinese soil, and so needless to say, if they even advance within 200 km (Sorry, I count in km, not miles :) ), the nation will be outraged and the CCP will be very embarrassed. A people's war doctrine is just not plausible anymore. Besides, there WILL be traitors who are willing to collaborate with the invaders. After the war these traitors have to be dealt with (most likely killed), which further complicates the problem. Let's face it, the CCP doesn't want to kill these traitors if it doesn't have to. There will be massive political consequences.

To those that say that China needs NK as a buffer zone:

US strategic assets can strike at targets in China (civilian or military) with relative ease, with or without NK.

Northeastern China is no longer the biggest economic region in China (only a major one). If the US is aiming on crippling the Chinese economy then it would attack targets along the coast. As well, if it wanted to strike at Northeastern China, nothing is stopping them. The NK air defence cannot, or have a very slight chance of stopping SRLM's and high-flying strategic bombers.

Edit: so in conclusion, NK is absolutely useless to China strategically. I will not cover the economical and diplomatic aspects of it since it has been pretty much summed up already by other posters.
 
R

redazncommieDXP

Just Hatched
Registered Member
There’s no question that a strong military is important, but in the situation that we have right now, the PLA is as strong as it has to be. It is amply powerful to prevent any country in the world from ever attacking Chinese soil (with the possible exception of the United States, but because of the economic situation in the world, Beijing and Washington are going to be in bed together for a long time), and a more powerful military at this time would be pointless. What does China gain from a dramatic and expensive increase in her navy? She still can’t sail around the world and project power the way the United States can, and her sphere of influence isn’t extended any farther than it already is. There will come an inevitable time when a more powerful military is necessary for China’s ascension, but that time is not now.

And on a tangent, Obcession, you underestimate the power of ground forces and the importance of these powerful forces’ ability to move over the land. Air power, missiles, things like that can do harm and end lives, but they are effectively the same as terrorist attacks- scary, but not a serious threat to the government or to the state. But when there are boots on the ground, it is abundantly clear to all people in the area that there is a new power in that city or on that hill.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
And on a tangent, Obcession, you underestimate the power of ground forces and the importance of these powerful forces’ ability to move over the land. Air power, missiles, things like that can do harm and end lives, but they are effectively the same as terrorist attacks- scary, but not a serious threat to the government or to the state. But when there are boots on the ground, it is abundantly clear to all people in the area that there is a new power in that city or on that hill.
Click to expand...

Missiles and air power serve as very powerful force multipliers which can greatly reduce the effectiveness of one's adversary's military. Powerful air forces can do great damage to enemy ground forces. The US airfoce has powerful munitions like MOABs, cluster bombs, anti-armor munitions, and a wide array of other poweful weapons that can cut swaths in an opposing army. Finally, the combination of precision airpower and missiles can be used to seriously strike the enemy's strategic assets or decapitate the enemy's command structure.
 
I

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
FriedRiceNSpice said:
Missiles and air power serve as very powerful force multipliers which can greatly reduce the effectiveness of one's adversary's military. Powerful air forces can do great damage to enemy ground forces. The US airfoce has powerful munitions like MOABs, cluster bombs, anti-armor munitions, and a wide array of other poweful weapons that can cut swaths in an opposing army. Finally, the combination of precision airpower and missiles can be used to seriously strike the enemy's strategic assets or decapitate the enemy's command structure.
Click to expand...


To add to his reply, imagine you are a division commander and you just realized that you are about to be flank. So you contact your brigade commander so you can order them to move to meet the enemy attack. The moment you pick up your communications equipment, they are hit by a JDAM. Now you have no way of telling your commanders their mission other than old fashion runners. By the time they get there, the attack may have been well underway.

There is big difference between strategic and tactical air strikes. Carpet bombing on your troop concentrations is very bad for morale. It also prevents you from concentrating your army for an attack or to meet an attack. This gives you adversaries relative numerical superiority on your military assets making it easier for them to destroy your army piece by piece.

That was the problem Saddam Armies had. Come together to better resist a ground attack but be destroyed in the air or desperse to better resist an air attack but be destroyed by ground forces. They chose C, run home and live another day.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top