Ethiopia Invades Somalia

Finn McCool

Finn McCool

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FuManChu said:
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Pro-government Somali troops have entered Mogadishu. The Courts seem to have fled to Kismayo. I wonder if they'll try and hold that, or just leg it and try to "disappear" around the country.
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I read that they are preparing a last stand around Kismayo and Jiljib (or maybe it was jibjil.) Apparently the UIC's Supreme Leader is there and they are going door to door recruting boys as young as 12 to fight. They probably think that they can hold there because the Federal Government forces held at Baidoa in much the same manner.

The logical thing to do seems to be to melt into the bush. I think that's what will end up happening.

The 2nd part of my prediction was wrong. :( Its probably better that way.
 
S

Scratch

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Many of the UIC militia seem not to be realy loyal fighters but opportunists. They just try to make sure they are not recogniced as islamists and sell their guns. Prices are as low as they haven't been for a long time.
I now bilieve the UIC is not realy strong and hasn't ever been. The problem was that these people, who brought some sense of order, were still better than the old warlords. So many people just followed the UIC to avoid further hardship. Now they change sides again just to survive. And with the ethiopean troop support, the somali government wants to establish itself in Mogadishu (what it never before achieved) and make an end to the hostily fractions of the warlords. I hope they have the succes and ethiopea stays long enough to make that sure. I somewhat believe they will do it, because they saw were it leads when such chaos is raging in a country. A stable federal government will be somehing Ethiopea wants as well.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

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Scratch said:
Many of the UIC militia seem not to be realy loyal fighters but opportunists. They just try to make sure they are not recogniced as islamists and sell their guns. Prices are as low as they haven't been for a long time.
I now bilieve the UIC is not realy strong and hasn't ever been. The problem was that these people, who brought some sense of order, were still better than the old warlords. So many people just followed the UIC to avoid further hardship. Now they change sides again just to survive. And with the ethiopean troop support, the somali government wants to establish itself in Mogadishu (what it never before achieved) and make an end to the hostily fractions of the warlords. I hope they have the succes and ethiopea stays long enough to make that sure. I somewhat believe they will do it, because they saw were it leads when such chaos is raging in a country. A stable federal government will be somehing Ethiopea wants as well.
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Ethiopia has a history of rivalry with the Somails and really intervened to aviod the rise of a threatening power in Somalia. They fought several wars when Somalia had a central government. So even if the Ethiopians wanted to nation-build in Somalia they would probably fail given the history of dislike and rivalry between the Somali people and the Ethiopians.
 
crazyinsane105

crazyinsane105

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Seems like the capital of Somalia has fallen and the Islamic militias have now retreated to Southern Somalia where they are vowing to make a last stand. I don't think that's a very smart choice since the odds are against them: Ethiopia has total control of the air and has quite a few land assets against the Somalian defenders. If I were the Islamic militias, I would order them to melt into the civilian population and conduct a guerilla war against the Ethiopian troops.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

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The African Union is beginning discussion to send peacekeepers to Somalia. Uganda has 1000 troops ready to be sent to the country. The "last stand" that the Islamists were preparing to make has essentially ended, their forces melted away again. If the Islamist want to take to the bush they should do it soon, time is running out. What little support they have left will vanish and their forces grow smaller every day.
 
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One of Somalia's Islamist leaders has given himself up to the Kenyan authorities, a Kenyan police source has told the BBC. Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, seen as a moderate, surrendered in the north-eastern Kenyan border town of Wajir, the policeman said.

The US and the UN have urged the Somali government to seek reconciliation with moderate Islamists, such as Mr Ahmed. The Islamists were driven out of the capital, Mogadishu, last month. Ethiopian forces helped the government oust the Union of Islamic Courts, who had taken control of much of southern Somalia. But the government says some 3,500 Islamist fighters remain in Mogadishu.
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It's important that moderates be drawn into any new administration - better than them joining hard-liners who may not want to co-operate.
 
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Scratch

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FuManChu said:
It's important that moderates be drawn into any new administration - better than them joining hard-liners who may not want to co-operate.
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It sure is, hopefully the central gov. can form up with members that are generally accepted and has the strength to overcome the local interests of warlords.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

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Scratch said:
It sure is, hopefully the central gov. can form up with members that are generally accepted and has the strength to overcome the local interests of warlords.
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Yes, it seems that the greatest obstacle to a peaceful Somalia is now the warlords (as usual).

What about the issue of Somaliland? It is essentially the Northern third of the country. Somaliland is (I think:confused: ) linguistically different from the rest of Somalia and has had its own de-facto government for years. While the rest of the country was in chaos and war it has been enjoying peace. Still quite poor though. I saw a thing about Somaliland on TV and some citizens as well as the "President" said they would fight to stay independent. The problem is no countries recognize them. I am of the opinion that the US should recognize them as a reward for their conscientous government, functioning democracy and the fact that they have been able to maintain order and peace, as well as the fact that the de facto government aided in the capture of a few Al-Qaeda operatives.
 
P

Pointblank

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Finn McCool said:
Yes, it seems that the greatest obstacle to a peaceful Somalia is now the warlords (as usual).

What about the issue of Somaliland? It is essentially the Northern third of the country. Somaliland is (I think:confused: ) linguistically different from the rest of Somalia and has had its own de-facto government for years. While the rest of the country was in chaos and war it has been enjoying peace. Still quite poor though. I saw a thing about Somaliland on TV and some citizens as well as the "President" said they would fight to stay independent. The problem is no countries recognize them. I am of the opinion that the US should recognize them as a reward for their conscientous government, functioning democracy and the fact that they have been able to maintain order and peace, as well as the fact that the de facto government aided in the capture of a few Al-Qaeda operatives.
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It all stems from when the former European colonies in Africa were divested; no effort was made by all former colonial powers to re-draw the borders so that they made sense, to account for geography, population, etc, as they left the borders of these new states in the exact arbitrary state they were. As such, the borders never made any sense, and caused weaknesses and conflict within the various new states. If they had taken the time and effort to re-draw the borders, we would see much less conflict than what we see today, and many of the wars fought in Africa are about borders, ethnicity, and resources.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
Pointblank said:
It all stems from when the former European colonies in Africa were divested; no effort was made by all former colonial powers to re-draw the borders so that they made sense, to account for geography, population, etc, as they left the borders of these new states in the exact arbitrary state they were. As such, the borders never made any sense, and caused weaknesses and conflict within the various new states. If they had taken the time and effort to re-draw the borders, we would see much less conflict than what we see today, and many of the wars fought in Africa are about borders, ethnicity, and resources.
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Sad but true. That Puntland seems to accept itself being part of Somalia, though they still want autonomy. But they [Puntland] argue with Somaliland over to regions, what seems to hinder recognition of Somaliland internationally. Besides Somalia and Puntland have enough to do becoming stable, let alone democratic. Wheras Somaliland made good advances in that regard and should therefore be credited (withrecogniced independence).
 
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