End of Oil, the End of Conventional War?

I think some of you have misunderstood my question. While yes, synthetic oil and some reserves of crude will be still available, we are still looking at an amped up price for building and fueling a modern military in the future. We need to look at the political and strategic part of the equation.

We must not forget that the entire human economy is currently based on cheap oil, and the metals, plastics, electronics etc. needed to make a tank or ship are all connected with oil (mining, processing, manufacturing, distribution...). Even a nuclear power naval vessel still needs fossil fuel to be built if not fueled. (even then, uranium probably needs be mined and transported by oil-running machines)

And that is the point of this discussion. What happens to the system when there's no cheap oil left? Even if you do manage to overhaul the world's dependence on crude with alternatives, synthetic fuels and biodiesels are still much more expensive than crude in the old days when world powers began amassing their modern armies. Compounded with the higher living costs and economic recessions bought by dwindling fossil fuels, can governments and politicians really afford to upkeep their military any longer?

crobato: While the ancient ways of war will be practical in such scenario, will it be accepted socially by our developed nations to have men fight in such way.

I think that the trends that are already visible in worldwide military development will accelerate. Western militaries, the militaries of the "have" countries, will increasingly look to smaller, higher-tech forces to replace the armoured divisions of the past. More and more emphasis will be placed on Special Forces and other more elite units in the context of much smaller militaries. In the "have not" countries, the Third World etc., we will see regimes relying less and less on large conscript armies, or at least on large conscrpit armies that use traditional force structure. As it becomes harder for poorer states to maintain large standing armies it will be easier for instability and ungovernability to spread in the Third World. This in turn will lead to the further spread of irregular and militia-style armed groups (like the Mahdi Army, Pakistani Taliban and innumerable African rebel groups).

Fortunately for those of us in the West, the trend towards smaller more elite forces will probably improve our ability to fight against the groups I described developing in the poorer world. However experiences in Iraq have shown us that to win a guerilla war it is often necessary to have very large numbers of troops.

This scenario will be negated for the world's richer countries by mass use of renewable fuels.

I think the originl post makes some good points. End all war? Obviously not. But reduce war, I hope so.

But as oil becomes scarser, people are more likely to fight over it. I know it's been said many times and is only partly true bu isn't oil what some of the largest current conflicts are about?

I think that the military, in any country, will likely be one of the first sectors to fully embrace non-oil fuel, or one of the last. Air Forces will continue using petroleum fuel for the foreseeable future.