End of Oil, the End of Conventional War?

kovona

New Member
My Question: Will the future depletion of fossil fuels make conventional war too expensive to wage? Hence the End of War.


If we are to believe what the hippies are saying, our reserves of fossil fuels will be gone in 50 - 75 years from now.

What happens then? Will major military powers like the US or China have developed and field alternative technologies to power their tanks, fighters, surface ships etc. by that time?

What if they didn't? Will the cost of oil be so high that even a superpower like the US could no longer support the impressive array of war assets that we see today? Will the future of war descend down into high-intensity cyber warfare, where the objective is no longer to destroy the enemy's military but his economic, communication, and social infrastructure through electronic means?
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
If fossil fuels are that depleted, following choices can present themselves:

We can go back to fighting like the way the Romans did. Good old mano to mano hack and slash. Civilization would collapse anyway to medieval style.

But before that can happen you would need to exhaust every drop of oil, along with other means to generate it. There are still reserves of oil. What is being depleted is oil that can be cheaply obtained because there are existing wells or its easy to drill. There are more oil reserves out there, but because of where they are located, it would cost more money to obtain each drop. There are oil reserves out there that won't be viable for exploitation, for example, until oil reaches $200 a barrel, and even more if the prices reach $300 and $400 a barrel. When a certain price point is reached, it would be more economically viable to synthesize fuel out of coal, limestone, sandstone and shale rock. This is actually good for the US, Germany and China, the three having the largest deposits and production of coal. Nazi Germany was trying to synthesize fuel out of coal during the big war.

The result won't be that fossil fuel powered platforms still won't disappear, but it becomes more and more expensive to operate them. The greatest impact would be on the gas guzzlers, platforms that require gas turbines to operate them.

For example with tanks, gas turbine powered tanks like the M1 series would be seriously affected, but it won't be that bad to the relatively more efficient diesel powered tanks the rest of the world uses. The US Army may have to reconsider to re-engine their tanks to diesels or build the next version of Abrams with diesel engines. Diesel fuel is relatively easier to synthesize out of coal, and there are other means to produce it, like bio-fuels.

Ships will have to go out of their CODAG propulsion, into nuclear-steam power, coal fired fired steam power, or pure diesel (CODAD). Submarines can go either nuclear, fuel cell AIP, or Stirling. Even conventional SSKs with diesels have been relatively efficient at the start. Submarines would probably be the least affected of all naval combatants.

Air power would be the most seriously affected because it has no other choice. There is also the double whammy of vastly increasing platform cost with each generation of manned fighters that they may price themselves out of the picture, replaced by stealthy UAVs and cruise missiles. Unless some new technology replaced fossil fueled gas turbines, conventional manned air power may obsolete itself out of existance, or go back to gliders and propeller aircraft. With that gone, so are air bases and aircraft carriers as well, and the carrier battle group as we know it.

But rocketry on the other hand, won't be scratched, but kerosene powered boosters will be phased out. Cruise missiles will still be there but powered with some other liquid fuels. Wars will be decided by surface launched missile power in conjunction with UAV support. We will skip air power for space power, since we can launch satellites without the use of fossil fuel, though we need to eliminate kerosene powered boosters. The combination of ballistic+cruise missiles cued by satellites will replace the conventional bombers and strike fighters, and in response, interceptors will be made against such satellites, forcing the first wars in space.

Based on this, you can create a scenario of late 21st century war. I can imagine navies for example, using large nuclear powered battleships and arsenal ships packed with VLS launchers for long range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. Some of these may be intended to strike at surface targets, others at sea targets, but can also be directed against targets in space. They can probably launch their own satellites too. Destroyers, frigates, corvettes and FACs will still all exist, though gas turbines will be replaced with other engines, and more so the nemesis of all surface ships, the submarines, the most unchanged species of all.

Its possible to draw a scenario where modern technological warfare is still possible, albeit by combining the twin strategies of making fuel usage much more efficient and thrifty, along with substitution. using nuclear power, coal, synthetic, biofuels, and non-fossil fuels.
 

Roger604

Senior Member
Question: given the reliance on space, what happens if a country simply launches tons and tons of debris into orbit with the specific purpose to deny adversaries the use of space.

In other words, what happens to your late 21st century scenario without space?

And why can't you have aircraft that use batteries recharged from nuclear power?
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Question: given the reliance on space, what happens if a country simply launches tons and tons of debris into orbit with the specific purpose to deny adversaries the use of space.

In other words, what happens to your late 21st century scenario without space?

The debris matters is greatly overrated. Space is that vast, and it will take a lot more than tons of debris. The dangers is there, but the mathematical possibilities are very small and they won't stop a satellite from operating in a period of time. Its exponentially more efficient to just use kinetic kill interceptors.

And why can't you have aircraft that use batteries recharged from nuclear power?

And the batteries can be used to do what? To make something move, you need Newton's third law. You need to throw a lot of material backward before you can move forward.
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
My Question: Will the future depletion of fossil fuels make conventional war too expensive to wage? Hence the End of War.
If we are to believe what the hippies are saying, our reserves of fossil fuels will be gone in 50 - 75 years from now.
What happens then? Will major military powers like the US or China have developed and field alternative technologies to power their tanks, fighters, surface ships etc. by that time?

There are many sources of fuel and energy. Nuclear, solar, wind, biofuel, hydrogen, etc. Fuel can be produced from algae. There's a company working on producing fuel from carbon dioxide.

First car to run on algae biodiesel:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


DIY Algae Bioreactor:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

montyp165

Senior Member
Biofuels will indeed be a critical element, especially with the ability to manufacture biogasoline upon others.
 

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
Fuel is the weakness of all armies. If the Cold War went nuclear, oil refenieries would have been critical targets. Even in conventional wars they would be targets.

Question: Why invest in more fuel guzzling engines like M1 Tank (turbines) when there was the possibility of restriction in fuel supplies? Does not make sense to me. The risks outweight the benefits.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Towards the middle to the latter half of this century, you may have wars over resources, or Resource Wars. Fighting over oil, uranium, even just drinking water, will be the issues of the day.

In such scenarios, tankers, refineries and oil rigs will be prime targets. Any expression of naval and air power would either be in the protection or destruction of such assets. Next in value to energy supplies would be resource, as in metal and mineral supplies.

With submarines for example, while the Cold War has changed the submarine's role to doomsday assets, the Resource Wars will revert the submarine back to its known WWI and WW2 role---commerce raider. You can imagine the economic havoc a submarine can do, if it blows up a major tanker or off shore oil rig, or hit a refinery with cruise missiles. Imagine if submarines are in the hands of "angry" nations, or those out to make a statement.
 

kliu0

Junior Member
Guns will still be there, so for a while we won't be running out of bullets and fighting with bayonets. Don't forget armies still have a large arsenal of ammunition for everything ranging from guns to artillery. We would perhaps once we run out of missiles rely on WWII stuff like anti-aircraft guns etc.

Oh yea, theres a game thats based on resources war that just released this year. Its called Frontlines Fuel of War.
 
Top