Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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Phead128

Captain
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Moderator - World Affairs
I don't think that is necessarily true China enjoy 50 years of unprecedented peace because she answered the challenge of Korean war. From then on nobody challenged China and leave her alone. They don't take it lightly It take them half a year to make up their mind. The same argument whether she should wait. But finally Peng Dehui make the convincing argument that waiting until China ready in 5 years does not make difference. Since China will never hope to rival US industrial might after 5 years!

Doing nothing will leave China industrial heartland of Jilin, Liaoning, Beijing vulnerable to bombing and decapitating attack

Two points:

I agree with you, and I personally think China can successfully conquer Taiwan and US would not dare to intervene.... it's not about the military success, but the economic consequences.

I personally think China should wait until it's 1) economic top dog, and 2) GDP per capita >$25-$30K before exploring an invasion of Taiwan. Why derail Chinese golden era of GDP growth over a ROC-->ROT name change that is goaded/instigated by ROT-ers themselves when US economy is still apex and China is not economic top-dog yet? Time is on China's side.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
He said China need only wait and watch as US implodes. Do you disagree with that as well?
The War against Western the American, German trained and equipped KMT doesn't count? The Korean War where the U.S. suffered it's longest retreat in one of the battles against a piss poor equipped Chinese volunteer forces with minimal logistical support not to mention almost non existent Armour and air power. The 1962 War against India where China spanked the Indians so hard that they're still smarting about that loss to this day. Then there was a brief battle against the Soviet Union where the Chinese forces stood their ground despite the severe imbalance of power, they even managed to captute a Soviet tank in the process. The Sino-Vietnam war accomplished the tasks and goals set out by Chairman Deng.

The arguments made by that monkey on YouTube is no different than what most of us can read on the bazillion of pseudo experts on Reddit that keeps on ragging the PLA. I mean if China is that easy to beat then why couldn't they have invaded the country a long time ago when it was relatively weak in almost every aspect.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
The War against Western the American, German trained and equipped KMT doesn't count? The Korean War where the U.S. suffered it's longest retreat in one of the battles against a piss poor equipped Chinese volunteer forces with minimal logistical support not to mention almost non existent Armour and air power. The 1962 War against India where China spanked the Indians so hard that they're still smarting about that loss to this day. Then there was a brief battle against the Soviet Union where the Chinese forces stood their ground despite the severe imbalance of power, they even managed to captute a Soviet tank in the process. The Sino-Vietnam war accomplished the tasks and goals set out by Chairman Deng.

The arguments made by that monkey on YouTube is no different than what most of us can read on the bazillion of pseudo experts on Reddit that keeps on ragging the PLA. I mean if China is that easy to beat then why couldn't they have invaded the country a long time ago when it was relatively weak in almost every aspect.
@Bellum_Romanum bro the Chinese Red Army in the Korean War and in the 1962 Indian war are among the best considering that 1937 up to the end of WW2 the KMT was beaten easily by a WW1 standard IJA, what a turn a round.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
As usual the US says one thing to China and a completely different thing to the American people. Beijing is at fault because they accepted this kind of relationship for decades. China thought it would be rewarded in the end and still there are Chinese who think the pot of gold is there at the end of the rainbow.

It's just a coping mechanism that leads to inaction. Inaction is action that ultimately favors China. Time is on China's side.

US is rapidly declining under its own weight and momentum caused by their own (in)actions, and China is robust and powerful. So long as we Chinese know that, that's fine. The American people can thinking whatever they want to cope and sleep at night, so long as they don't resort to war or economic scorched earth to contain China, it's a win for China. Half the battle is managing the decline of an insecure bruised ego from lashing out against its interest and world interest.
 
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sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
China should NOT try to wait out the US. It needs to be actively subverting them like Russia is doing.

The US will not collapse on its own because there is simply not enough outside pressure.

It's like an eggshell that's cracked and juices slowly flowing out of it but still doesn't completely crack open because nobody can touch it. China needs to be the one to give it a final slap. With any luck China may be the one that finally exerts enough pressure.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
China should NOT try to wait out the US.
More like achieve economic prosperity first (e.g. >$25-30K GDP per capita) before going on colonization and invasion spree. You know, proper timing.
It needs to be actively subverting them like Russia is doing.
Agreed.
The US will not collapse on its own because there is simply not enough outside pressure.
What does this even mean. Collapse? Like in a civil war or revolution?
It's like an eggshell that's cracked and juices slowly flowing out of it but still doesn't completely crack open because nobody can touch it. China needs to be the one to give it a final slap. With any luck China may be the one that finally exerts enough pressure.
What do you mean by "Slap" US so it collapses?
 

solarz

Brigadier
More like achieve economic prosperity first (e.g. >$25-30K GDP per capita) before going on colonization and invasion spree. You know, proper timing.

Agreed.

What does this even mean. Collapse? Like in a civil war or revolution?

What do you mean by "Slap" US so it collapses?

People who actively wish for a US collapse don't fully grasp the consequences should this truly come to pass. We're talking about tens of thousands of nuclear missiles that would then be in the hands of rival states. A MIC that would continue to function and most likely selling to all sides of a conflict. Powerful multinational energy corporations that would lose what little restrictions they have now and start behaving like powers unto themselves. Not to mention the depths of human suffering that would make Afghanistan look like a child's playground.

Those who believe China would benefit from this are truly foolish. The moment the US collapses, the China-Russia relationship will begin to deteriorate. China would lose the unity of purpose that comes from having a common adversary, and it would begin the same evolution that led the US to its downfall after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Much better for the US to experience a peaceful transition into a regional power instead.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
Don't post this fascist crap here
It's libertarian crap. Have a look at the definition of "fascist" in the dictionary, it does not mean what you think it means. And you're not a moderator so you don't tell me what to post.

Don't bother responding, I am putting you on ignore.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Half the battle is managing the decline of an insecure bruised ego from lashing out against its interest and world interest.

Here I look at it a different way, and this is important I feel.

I completely do not see it that way, because I am old (almost), and you are young.

Since you are young, decline is something theoretical, that you only see in books and the TV.

From what I have seen, decline is a process, that is irreversible.

Decline cannot be controlled, it happens. It is a process. Hence, China cannot manage America's decline, no one can.

Maybe sometimes someone could think of something, and reverse their decline. That is possible, but very rare. Usually they muddle along downwards.

It just happens. Every year after year, there is less. The working class of America knows that feeling.

The other point of decline, getting lesser year after year, the weaker the working class becomes. It is all about BLM and not the working man in America.

That is the point about decline, it just happens, and we cannot control it, meaning it cannot be managed. And the other point about decline that the longer it goes on, the weaker they become.

Hemmingway wrote about that, that line is everywhere, about a couple of characters in his novel. One asked the other guy, how did you go bankrupt, the reply was, "It was gradually, the suddenly."

He knew.

=============== ===============

What this means in terms of strategy, I think the CCP already is implementing.

They follow the USA lead. If there is conflict, China gives the USA conflict. If there is peace, China give the USA peace.

Declines tend to make people exhausted. Just give them what they want. If it is more struggle, they exhaust themselves quicker.

That is the strategic outlook. If the CCP truly believes that the USA is in a irreversible decline, then all plans should be focused along those lines. Here probably means just do what the USA wants to do, no need to really do any different China initiatives.

Case in point, the trade war.

After implementing the Trump tariffs, fast forward a couple of years, and America is in a weaker position regarding trade compared to China, who trade volumes growing to record levels, even with America.

This trade war episode, it was not about management, or avoidance, it was head on tit for tat. China makes no initiative here with the US. China lets the Americans take the lead in this dance.

The more they dance, the one in decline (if true) will exhaust themselves quicker.

:)
 
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