Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm not saying the Chinese should whole-heartedly trust Russia since Russia still has a lot of West-worshipping people. In fact, the Chinese should trust nobody since trust and friendship is meaningless in the realm of politics. However, working with Russia gives China an excellent leverage against the West and vice versa. As for the idea of potential isolation, the West has no choice but to trade with China unless they want to lower their living standards to unacceptable levels.

An old post on why Russia has to prioritise the European theatre.


Russia is already in the position of being a defacto resource appendage to a much larger EU economy and population.

Accepting an even more subservient position goes completely against Russia's entrenched interest groups and the Russian sense of itself as a great and independent nation.

So in summary, Europe is adjacent to the core Russian population and economic heartlands.

It is Europe (not China) that potentially poses the biggest threat to the loss of Russian independence, whether that is through economic or military means.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
So it looks like the Democrats are going to win the 2 senate races in Georgia.

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This would be a good thing for both the USA and China.

It means the Democrats have control of the Presidency, the Senate and the House.
So they can enact their legislative agenda without the Republicans in the Senate blocking them.

Some of the immediate things I expect would be:

1. An effective Coronavirus response in terms testing, tracking and vaccination. Trump and the Republicans are failing on this.
2. Increase support payments from $600 to $2000, which the Republican Senate is currently blocking.

From an economic perspective, that is good for the US and everyone else in the world, including China.

---

In the medium-longer term, we can expect the Democrats to focus on a domestic agenda rather than China.
In comparison, if there was political gridlock with the Republicans in control of the Senate, the only point of agreement would be China-bashing actions.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
In comparison, if there was political gridlock with the Republicans in control of the Senate, the only point of agreement would be China-bashing actions.

So now instead of that being the only point of agreement they’ll have more to agree on, other than that.

I don’t see how that is beneficial for China though. It may be even easier now to pass bills with pork in them that are anti-China since their won’t be endless deadlocks.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
So now instead of that being the only point of agreement they’ll have more to agree on, other than that.

I don’t see how that is beneficial for China though. It may be even easier now to pass bills with pork in them that are anti-China since their won’t be endless deadlocks.

No.

The Democrat agenda has a lot of things that will incense the right-wing Republicans.

So the Democrats will have control of the House, Senate and Presidency to pass federal laws.
A Republican-leaning Supreme Court may block some of these, but it just means the Democrats have to try again before succeeding.

In addition, it is the individual states which control most of the implementation of these changes.

So the arguments will spill over as the Democratic federal government argues with Republican state governments.

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Remember today that the federal government is divided with the Democrats controlling the House.
And one of the few things that the Republicans and Democrats agree on is China-bashing.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think that Biden's latest nominations will change anything regarding his China policy. He's always said that he would end some of the needless confrontation, but apart from not increasing sanctions against China I doubt much will change. If anything Beijing may regret Biden coming to the White House if he's able to bolster partnerships and alliances that conflict with China's interests.
Hello and happy new year, What more can Biden do? Trump fired all the ammunition and yet China not only survived but grew.
Only a few days ago Sullivan was saying that Biden would patch up relations with the EU and that the US would treat China as a serious strategic competitor. That's no reason to be optimistic about US-China relations going back to those of a decade or so ago.
Before Europe concluded the investment deal with China, right now I'm hearing scanting remark about Europe and the betrayal. Remember Merkel is an internationalist, part of the brat pack that include Biden. She mastermind the deal prove where Europe future lies.
I think Phead meant that China got rich from trade with the developed world after economic reforms. China's economy took off after it implimented reforms under Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang, allowing private investment, business and reduced the dominance of state-owned companies.
And the West grew much richer as a result, it's give and take and you leverage your advantage. Strong gov't policy is the key (JV and state enterprise ) foundation, without it China will be like the Philippine were oligarch and business interest rule.
As for the Philippines, it has been and remains a highly corrupt country by all objective measures. 20 years of Marcos didn't help but since then things haven't got a lot better.
Marcos may played a part, but Cory Aquino mismanagement of the economy and selling the state property and utilities to her family, friends and cronies is a major factor, in other words they rob us dry. You will never hear it from the western MSM because of their complicity (we follow the IMF and WORLD BANK recommendation) and it will tarnish her image as the heroine of the EDSA REVOLUTION.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
Hello and happy new year, What more can Biden do? Trump fired all the ammunition and yet China not only survived but grew.
Trump didn't work with other countries. He tried extorting more money out of countries like South Korea and Japan, pissed off the EU by siding with Putin, etc.

The growth of China's economy does not automatically equate to its geopolitical situation. China has had things go its way the most when it has been able to challenge opponents on an individual basis. If Biden is able to get countries to support each other more when they have disputes with China, even if the economy continues on its current path Beijing may get its way less frequently.
Before Europe concluded the investment deal with China, right now I'm hearing scanting remark about Europe and the betrayal. Remember Merkel is an internationalist, part of the brat pack that include Biden. She mastermind the deal prove where Europe future lies.
The EU trade investment deal largely benefits Europe rather than China, because it lifts controls on foreign investment and ownership of companies that the CCP insisted upon up until now. Although China could also benefit if it leads to an increase in EU investment, it's more a win for Brussels. China had stalled on negotiations for years because it didn't want to give up the advantages of the previous status quo.

It may be that some European countries look the other way in the future, but at the same time the EU is not a political bloc, so even if countries like Germany decide not to get involved it doesn't mean that France wouldn't be interested in taking action. It's going to be down to how persuasive Biden and his administration is.

And the West grew much richer as a result
I wouldn't say "much richer". Some companies were able to increase their profits but others laid off workers when jobs got moved overseas. But whoever benefited the most, the point is that international trade and economic reforms are what helped China.
Strong gov't policy is the key (JV and state enterprise ) foundation, without it China will be like the Philippine were oligarch and business interest rule.
Hmm, I'm not sure you could say that the interests of business and oligarchs don't rule in China, it's just that they're part of the CCP now. China's public spending outside of defence and internal security remains fairly low - e.g. around 5% of GDP is spent on healthcare, as opposed to 6% in Vietnam, 7.5% in South Korea, etc. That's the interests of business and the elites at play, as they don't want higher taxes to pay for more healthcare spending.
Marcos may played a part, but Cory Aquino
Aquino was only President for six years and left office in 1992. Even if she did a bad job the Philippines has had nearly three decades to change policy. Marcos having 20 years to run the country into the ground was far more significant.

As for the World Bank and IMF, they constantly say that dealing with corruption is vital. It's not their fault if successive governments refuse or are unable to deal with it effectively.
 

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
Trump didn't work with other countries. He tried extorting more money out of countries like South Korea and Japan, pissed off the EU by siding with Putin, etc.

The growth of China's economy does not automatically equate to its geopolitical situation. China has had things go its way the most when it has been able to challenge opponents on an individual basis. If Biden is able to get countries to support each other more when they have disputes with China, even if the economy continues on its current path Beijing may get its way less frequently.

The EU trade investment deal largely benefits Europe rather than China, because it lifts controls on foreign investment and ownership of companies that the CCP insisted upon up until now. Although China could also benefit if it leads to an increase in EU investment, it's more a win for Brussels. China had stalled on negotiations for years because it didn't want to give up the advantages of the previous status quo.

It may be that some European countries look the other way in the future, but at the same time the EU is not a political bloc, so even if countries like Germany decide not to get involved it doesn't mean that France wouldn't be interested in taking action. It's going to be down to how persuasive Biden and his administration is.


I wouldn't say "much richer". Some companies were able to increase their profits but others laid off workers when jobs got moved overseas. But whoever benefited the most, the point is that international trade and economic reforms are what helped China.

Hmm, I'm not sure you could say that the interests of business and oligarchs don't rule in China, it's just that they're part of the CCP now. China's public spending outside of defence and internal security remains fairly low - e.g. around 5% of GDP is spent on healthcare, as opposed to 6% in Vietnam, 7.5% in South Korea, etc. That's the interests of business and the elites at play, as they don't want higher taxes to pay for more healthcare spending.

Aquino was only President for six years and left office in 1992. Even if she did a bad job the Philippines has had nearly three decades to change policy. Marcos having 20 years to run the country into the ground was far more significant.

As for the World Bank and IMF, they constantly say that dealing with corruption is vital. It's not their fault if successive governments refuse or are unable to deal with it effectively.
What way? What action France will take? Draw lots of cartoon?
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I know you're not going to reply because you have me and others on your ignore list. (It's like burying your head in the sand)!
He's just a coward. The traitorous "pro-democracy" movement he supports just got stomped into paste and he just repeats banal platitudes like "Biden will unite..." like a retarded parrot. *Sigh*, is every one of China's enemies so dumb and weak? How about a real challenge for once?
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
He's just a coward. The traitorous "pro-democracy" movement he supports just got stomped into paste and he just repeats banal platitudes like "Biden will unite..." like a retarded parrot. *Sigh*, is every one of China's enemies so dumb and weak? How about a real challenge for once?
Take it from me as a Hong Konger. Just let HK slowly decline into economic irrelevance, China is the rising future superpower. We HK egos need to adjust from West worship via creative self-destruction, a sort of cleansing experience to adjust to our new overlords.
 
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