Those prediction is just simply wrong. And China in fact speed up the Carrier program. In 4 years this is what it will look like
View attachment 90995
My personal wish and hope is that China could build at least 2 carriers at any one time, i.e. at least one in Jiangnan and at least one in Dalian.
Say, if the 004 and subsequent carriers can make it into serialized production, then China can expect to have one new carrier entering serivce every 2-3 years, instead of one new carrier entering service every 4-6 years that is currently practiced by the US.
Remember that Liaoning and Shandong are mainly training carriers in the eyes of the PLAN - The
real deal starts with Fujian.
But,
We could
guesstimate the number of carriers that could be operated by the PLAN at a time simply by looking at when the subsequent Type 901 replenishment ships are scheduled for commissioning.
Based on the table above -
The first Type 901 (pennant number 901), commissioned in 2012, is currently stationed in the North Sea Fleet, which corresponds to Liaoning. Liaoning was commissioned in 2012.
The 2nd Type 901 (pennant number 905), commissioned in 2019, is currently stationed in the South Sea Fleet, which corresponds to Shandong. Shandong was commissioned in 2019.
The 3rd Type 901 (pennant number unknown) is currently fitting out, expected for commissioning in 2023, and would be assigned to the North Sea Fleet. That means she is meant for Fujian, which is also expected for commissioning in 2024 for the North Sea Fleet.
The 4th Type 901 is currently under construction, expected for commissioning in 2026, and would be assigned to the South Sea Fleet.
The 5th Type 901 is currently in planning stage, expected for commissioning in 2027, and would be assigned to the North Sea Fleet.
This means that if things go smoothly for the coming years, 004 may be commissioned sometime in the 2026-2028 range, to be stationed in the South Sea Fleet.
Meanwhile, 005 may (hopefully) be commissioned sometime in the 2027-2029 range, to be stationed in the North Sea Fleet.
Therefore, I really do hope that the PLAN could operate at least 4 carriers before 2030. This is because IMO, the 2027-2030 range would be the best time for the final act of reunification of a certain southeastern island into China proper, should all avenues for a peaceful reunification have been exhausted. Plus, cunducting said reunification at that period while the USN is at their weakest, before their warships could ever bounce back in numbers when going into the 2030, would give a bigger edge for the PLAN in the Western Pacific.
(Side note: IMHO, now, China just should go with a second 003 that would rectify and mend any mistakes found on the Fujian, further improving the Fujian design, while buying enough time for China's marine nuclear propulsion technology to mature for carrier usage)
Island_003.jpg
