My feeling is that Covid-19 is similar to influenza that vaccines will only be effective in less than a year for the targeted virus variant, probably just half year. Covid-19 also seems to be able to mutate fast enough to make some vaccines ineffective in a year, the UK and SA variants appeared just a year since the Wuhan outbreak and AZ is almost useless against them.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
- Thread starter localizer
- Start date
Interesting. Here is my understanding.
- China's total production is almost equal to the sum of US and India.
- India and USA's combined population are 16.8 billion vs. China's 13.9 billion. 4 billion more to take care of, an Europe of an USA.
- Compared with India and USA, China's risk of domestic transmission is almost zero.
- Vaccines are probably only effective for half year due to mutation and fading of anti-body. This means that a country need to inoculate the same population in around half year if the pandemic does not end within that period.
I hope not. Most scientists are saying that Covid-19 mutated less than influenza so they are hoping vaccines would be good for at least 3-5 years. Hopefully as more people get vaccinated, covid-19 mutation would slow down a bit.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
All of the Covid variants are mostly down to the piss poor job most democratic countries in the world did in managing their own outbreaks, so you have a vast pool of infected to breed new variants.
Once vaccine rollout reaches critical mass, the pool of infected should fall, thereby reducing the chances of dangerous mutation developing.
So long as there are no more epic screw ups, the general direction of travel should remain the same. Whereby increasing vaccine coverage means fewer infected and slower mutation. There will be setbacks with new variants coming out, but hopefully targeted booster shots could be developed and rolled out much quicker and existing track and trace and quarantine infrastructure and expertise gained should hopefully allow new variants to be identified and isolated faster, so you won’t need global rollout of new boosters to contain it.
Eventually, after a few cycles of ever smaller new variant outbreaks and booster shot deployments, it will petter out to nothing. But we might be talking about 2-3 years for that to happen.
Once vaccine rollout reaches critical mass, the pool of infected should fall, thereby reducing the chances of dangerous mutation developing.
So long as there are no more epic screw ups, the general direction of travel should remain the same. Whereby increasing vaccine coverage means fewer infected and slower mutation. There will be setbacks with new variants coming out, but hopefully targeted booster shots could be developed and rolled out much quicker and existing track and trace and quarantine infrastructure and expertise gained should hopefully allow new variants to be identified and isolated faster, so you won’t need global rollout of new boosters to contain it.
Eventually, after a few cycles of ever smaller new variant outbreaks and booster shot deployments, it will petter out to nothing. But we might be talking about 2-3 years for that to happen.
More evidence that vaccination can't prevent all infections.
Out of those who were tested for the coronavirus at least a week after their second shot, less than 1 percent [of Israelis] tested positive, and less than 0.2% developed COVID-19 symptoms.
Israel has almost exclusively been using the two-shot COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. On [March 7] the Health Ministry released data showing that in Israel have been fully vaccinated.
Much of the economy reopened [March 7] as a national lockdown was further rolled back, including restaurants, cafes, school grades 7-10 in low- to medium-infection areas, event venues, attractions and hotels. Higher education institutions and religious seminaries were opened to vaccinated or recovered people and rules on gatherings and worship were relaxed.
The cabinet also decided to ease restrictions on international travel and sidelined a highly controversial committee that as deciding who could enter the country while the airport remained largely shuttered.
Out of those who were tested for the coronavirus at least a week after their second shot, less than 1 percent [of Israelis] tested positive, and less than 0.2% developed COVID-19 symptoms.
Israel has almost exclusively been using the two-shot COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. On [March 7] the Health Ministry released data showing that in Israel have been fully vaccinated.
Much of the economy reopened [March 7] as a national lockdown was further rolled back, including restaurants, cafes, school grades 7-10 in low- to medium-infection areas, event venues, attractions and hotels. Higher education institutions and religious seminaries were opened to vaccinated or recovered people and rules on gatherings and worship were relaxed.
The cabinet also decided to ease restrictions on international travel and sidelined a highly controversial committee that as deciding who could enter the country while the airport remained largely shuttered.
I mean vaccines can work in various ways.
One of the ways they can work is by limiting the effect the infection can have in your body.
Note, that you can still be infected after getting properly vaccinated. The vaccine will just protect you better.
Of course different vaccines work in different ways, but letting vaccinated people get infected doesn't mean per se that the vaccine doesn't work
I completely understand that. It is just that many Western, Hong Kong and Taiwan media are spreading misinformation about Chinese vaccines not being effective by citing one or two cases of fully vaccinated people getting covid-19. All these misinformation have dampened Hong Kongers' willingness to get vaccinated. Misinformation is also spreading to mainland China. It would be a tragic if misinformation hindered the rollout of vaccination in China.
You are absolutely rights. Thats the CIA propaganda and their brainwashed media and politicians saying all these lies
Sinovac especially is a big victim of this. I have seen many news on different countries saying that Sinovac doesn't work, and when they receive the vaccine, the people dont want to take it.
It is a really big problem, hopefully after this covid situation pass, China will get some "science" credit and prove to the world that it has credible pharmaceutical capabilities.
The first phase of national vaccination rollout would begin soon.
Interesting. Here is my understanding.
Few days ago, US and India together wanted to save the world. That is a mission impossible.
- China's total production is almost equal to the sum of US and India.
- India and USA's combined population are 16.8 billion vs. China's 13.9 billion. 4 billion more to take care of, an Europe of an USA.
- Compared with India and USA, China's risk of domestic transmission is almost zero.
- Vaccines are probably only effective for half year due to mutation and fading of anti-body. This means that a country need to inoculate the same population in around half year if the pandemic does not end within that period.
4 billions.