All depends on vaccine distribution and efficacy.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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Intrepid
Major
The governors are doing a good job even though Trump is still president.
Death rate is low now due to the fact that most doctors now have ample of experience to treat coronavirus. A few months ago, coronavirus was a mystery and most doctors don't have any idea how to deal all the symptoms and what are the best medicine to prescribe. Beside in the early days, many patients dead in their home, on the way to the hospitals, long term care facilities, or gave up by doctors. Many countries with ample of health resources have outperformed the US and able to keep the death rate less than 1%. Low death rate now is nothing to brag about and it is still ten times more than the most severe flu.
Vaccine is too late for the Jan/Feb surge. The only hope is the Thanksgiving and Christmas wouldn't cause a dramatic surge of patients due to family gathering and parties. We might be looking at 300,000 to 500,000 cases per day if people decided to ignore the rules and what is good for their family. However, if vaccines work, we might see a better summer ahead.
Intrepid
Major
Not how many people dead but the mortality rate. At the beginning of the pandemic, NY has like more than 1/4 of mortality rate for people who hospitalized with coronavirus. Now it is 8%.
Some believe that the shift in infections from old to young is the primary explanation for the drop in mortality. A concluded that the relationship between infection fatality rate and age may be exponential. The researchers found that the age-specific infection fatality rate was extremely low among children and young adults, measuring 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at 25. However, the rate progressively increased with age, growing from 0.4% at 55 to around 15% at 85.
Yet some studies show that mortality has decreased among older patients, too. In a cohort of more than 5,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients at NYU, researchers found that mortality rates dropped 18 percentage points from the start of the pandemic, falling from 26% in March to 8% in August.
supercat
Major
It's indeed the possible case. The researchers are being very careful. If you look at the phase 2 data in the table, at 14 days the effective rate was 98.3% and at 28 days it was 99.2%.
Bolsonaro is really a U.S. lackey who does not care about the welfare of his own people.
On the other hand, Turkey has signed contract to buy 50 million doses from Sinovac:
Questions over AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine data
Days after grabbing headlines with its COVID-19 'vaccine for the world', AstraZeneca is facing tricky questions about its success rate that some experts say could hinder its chances of getting speedy U.S. and EU regulatory approval.
Days after grabbing headlines with its COVID-19 'vaccine for the world', AstraZeneca is facing tricky questions about its success rate that some experts say could hinder its chances of getting speedy U.S. and EU regulatory approval.
How effective are the vaccines from Sinovac?