A mom told his kid no to go to swim in certain lake because was dangerous, the kid protested and got angry all day long, few days of nagging the mom she was tired and open the door and said "GO", the kid said "what?", she said "GO", "what?" "but but...you said was dangerous" the kid reply, " YES" "BUT YOU WANT TO GO" "SO GO". Halfway to the lake the boy gets scared and goes back home and does not return to the lake.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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supercat
Major
Another nasal-spray COVID-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use.
A new vaccine was approved as well.
This summarizes some Westerners' psyche well.
A new vaccine was approved as well.
This summarizes some Westerners' psyche well.
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D
Deleted member 23272
Guest
I think there's too many conspiracy theories going around right now. For my part, I can confidently say that there is no Machiavellian scheme from the government to let millions of Chinese die from COVID just so they could blame the protesters and use it as an excuse to further crack down on dissent.
For the simple fact that, what makes most people here think that if scenes emerge from China reminiscent of India's Delta Wave, the focus is going to be on the protesters forcing the government to open up too early, and not on the quality of the vaccines and medical care most are recieivng? At least the latter is what most of the global media is focusing on right now.
In reality this shouldn't be a problem, 90% of Chinese are fully vaccinated and 50% have been boosted, right now there's a campaign to increase vaccinations, and the Chinese vaccine has proven to be effective. Hypothetically, however, if despite all this Chinese still end up dying like flies then public anger will likely be on the government for not allowing access to Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Maybe in such a scenario, the Chinese government will succesfully control the narrative and blame it all on the protesters. But considering this forum's consistently abysmal opinion on the Chinese government's PR abilities, I'm not sure why some are so optimistic.
Who said anything about a Machiavellian scheme? Given the eventual casualties, any move away from Zero Covid was always going to be politically fraught. I think it's quite politically shrewd to move away from lockdowns under "popular" consensus. Certainly gives the government a legitimate shield against criticism for a re-opening that had to come sooner or later.
In fact, the western media may have contributed in creating this mass "popular" consensus by exaggerating the anti-lockdown protests in the first place.
In regards to future narratives, the English media will attack no matter what. The Chinese will have to push their own narrative internally and amongst friendly media.
With mass casualties, the mRNA angle will certainly be a promising avenue of attack. The Chinese definitely have angles to counter - for example, publicizing studies showing 4 regular shots = 3 mRNA shots, side effects of mRNA, etc.
But all in all, probably best for the Chinese government to get through w a combination of lighter control measures (e.g. they're keeping elderly care facilities on lockdown) and political messaging.
D
Deleted member 23272
Guest
Yeah sorry if I came off as accusatory, I just think people are reading too much into the situation right now. Simply put the government stubbornly held onto a strategy that worked for the first two years of the pandemic, was unsuited for the third year, people were fed up, rose up, and forced the government to change direction. Really, just 1, 2, 3, nothing crazy.
As long as vaccinations are ramped up, measures like mask wearing are put in place, and more hospital beds are built China will be just fine. Might even be able to at the very least reopen the border with Hong Kong in January.
Senpai noticed me.
Maybe that's a bit of overthinking. On these issues I tend to go for simple explanations.
The CIA has a mandate to promote unrest in China. The CIA notices that there is growing tension from the zero covid policy. Some incident happens that causes a spontaneous protest to happen.
The CIA feels that its opportunity has arrived and thus starts activating its China-based assets to foster more protests and change the protest narrative (from zero covid to down with Xi, CPC, we want freedom and other such bs), see the pathetic Shanghai protests for example.
They might have actually done a favour to China because now the timeline for ending zero covid has most likely significantly accelerated lol
Just in I think
tldr: study from feb 22 to sep 22, individuals 60 years and older
Compared with 3 doses of mRNA vaccine, those who received 3 doses of CoronaVac or BBIBP-CorV were at higher risk of symptomatic infection (IRR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09–1.16), hospitalisation (IRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.36–1.71) and severe COVID-19 (IRR 1.90; 95% CI 1.45–2.47)
4 mRNA vaccine doses provided additional protection against infection, hospitalisation and severe Covid, however, 4 doses of inactivated whole-virus vaccine or a combination of both vaccine types did not confer additional risk reduction against infection or hospitalisation compared with 3 mRNA vaccine doses
tldr: study from feb 22 to sep 22, individuals 60 years and older
Compared with 3 doses of mRNA vaccine, those who received 3 doses of CoronaVac or BBIBP-CorV were at higher risk of symptomatic infection (IRR 1.13; 95% CI 1.09–1.16), hospitalisation (IRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.36–1.71) and severe COVID-19 (IRR 1.90; 95% CI 1.45–2.47)
4 mRNA vaccine doses provided additional protection against infection, hospitalisation and severe Covid, however, 4 doses of inactivated whole-virus vaccine or a combination of both vaccine types did not confer additional risk reduction against infection or hospitalisation compared with 3 mRNA vaccine doses
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
It doesn't have much more attenutating to go before it's really like a common flu. People die from the flu in the thousands every year but we are still above that natural number. It's been coming down; there's no reason to believe that this is where it stops. Also, whenever the lethality decreases a bit, a large number of people will go from death to ill and another large number of people will go from ill to barely affected, etc... It takes a little to make a huge difference.
There are two additional factors to consider:
1. Respiratory viruses tend to attenuate faster than other viruses, most likely due to the ease of spread increasing the rate of mutation and evolution. Viruses "want" to evolve into something in a commensalist relationship with the host because then the host will tolerate it without issue. Viruses that kill their hosts are the least likely to survive and proliferate.
2. A pandemic gives the virus a surge of oppertunity and selective pressure to turn into something benign. This is far less for low rate (rarer) lingering diseases.
That is why while most pandemics arise from respiratory viruses, none of them have lasting power. SARS, MERS, Spanish Flu, Swine flu are all gone.
FYI, Black plague is caused by a bacteria (Yersenia pestis) and the untreated death rate for HIV is not 100%; many people who are infected with HIV will never progress to AIDS.
If that's true, then they haven't done China any favour at all. China's exit from COVID Zero must be entirely on China's own terms, without distraction, and based completely on scientific and other empirical evidence with a large margin of error. Allowing the CIA to affect it by pushing it sooner or later than planned will both incurr costs to China.
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