Because they are not some news media nutjob. They also provide consultancy and other services. They track suppliers, aircraft makers and airline and also have more inside information than us. Also it is their job to know.
COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
Shilao (施佬) and Yankee (杨基) once explained why C919 certification is delayed in 2021. Certain tests require extreme cold weather condition and must be carried out in Quebec Canada. Given the pandemic situation abroad, COMAC cannot put health and even lives of the certification team at risk.
That reminds me of US DOD and CIA's good work on J-20.
You can get the forecast right and the details wrong, and for long time horizon product cycles you have plenty of time to change your prognosis and bury or revise your previous calls with no penalties to credibility. If two years from now they deliver and the customers say “this product hit all its promise specs” you can just go back and say “it seems they resolved their manufacturing/weight issues”.
So yeah, I’m not sold on this idea that somehow a private company has much risk with getting these sorts of generic claims wrong. I’ve seen way too many make wrong calls, never apologize or correct, and still stay is business (just look up Carl Icahn with Apple, or Kyle Bass and RMB shorts).
Quickie
Colonel
The analysis can also be guided by the effect it would have on entities the company sees as its real income generators at the end. It's much better to be on the side of established players to this end.
It will have no qualms of coming out with an analysis that turns out to be negative against a competitor of those entities and therefore positive for their business in a way, even if the analysis has been based on info that is close to hearsay.
Yup. And I know enough about how many of these firms collect their information to know that just because you can project a veneer of “being close to the ground” onto them that doesn’t mean you can assume they’ve been very rigorous about the quality and provenance of their business intelligence or market research.
If being negative or bearish on China or things Chinese and coming out being consistently wrong were damaging to their reputations, then so many western analysts or institutions would have severely tarnished reputations for so long.
In any case, I was the first (or one of the first) to post the news at SDF last year that COMAC was said to deliver the first C919 to its customer by the end of 2021. It was a surprise to me (and a lot of observers I believe), because they weren't really expected to be able to so so quickly. Early in the year, there were talking about doing some storming & icing tests in Canada in November as part of the certification requirements, which made me questioning the feasibility of end-of-year delivery. Previously, it took ARJ21 four years to complete the same test in Canada due to repeated timing and condition issues.
If the past experiences of observing the development of ARJ21 and C919 are any guide, then expect slipped dates.
In any case, I was the first (or one of the first) to post the news at SDF last year that COMAC was said to deliver the first C919 to its customer by the end of 2021. It was a surprise to me (and a lot of observers I believe), because they weren't really expected to be able to so so quickly. Early in the year, there were talking about doing some storming & icing tests in Canada in November as part of the certification requirements, which made me questioning the feasibility of end-of-year delivery. Previously, it took ARJ21 four years to complete the same test in Canada due to repeated timing and condition issues.
If the past experiences of observing the development of ARJ21 and C919 are any guide, then expect slipped dates.
Thing is, these aren't financial analysts with no engineering acumen or first hand experience - I suggest you read up on their biographies. They've been part of this industry, and have what it takes to thoroughly analyse technical information.
Anyway, some non-paywalled details from one of their competitors:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ you can be a great engineer and even a great analyst with an engineering background and that doesn’t guarantee the provenance of your information. I’d rather know how they got their information than what their work experience looks like to gauge how accurate or inaccurate their conclusions are.