COMAC C919

Rowdyhorse4 · Jan 10, 2023

YISOW said:
No its just a proof. If U are REALLY interested in COMAC and C919. You will know more connections between C919 and Ryan Air

i think O'Leary said something about them still being committed in 2020 but i'm gonna wait for EASA's type certification AND ryan air putting an order in or leasing it.

Edit1: ok yeah he's erring in the side of caution.

""We would welcome a third person to break the duopoly between Boeing and Airbus. We would hope that they (COMAC) will have a good aircraft, but that aircraft will have a lot of tried-and-tested Western components as well. And the question is, will that be reflected in the pricing of those aircraft or not?" -O'leary

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abenomics12345 · Jan 10, 2023

lcloo said:
Intereting statement, how much of this is your personal opinion, and how much is factual?

Are you suggesting C919 is better or equal to the current iterations of the A320? And I don't just mean the 'specs' but as a solution for airlines operating the jet over say a decade.

tphuang · Jan 10, 2023

Alright, let's not be ridiculous here. Ryanair is not going to purchase C919. C919 is not even EASA certified. Even aside from that, Ryanair is a single fleet operator that is known to string along Airbus to try get larger discounts on 737 orders. Everyone in the industry knows this.

Also, people should stop dreaming about exporting C919. That's not a good thing. It's not ready to be exported. If you cannot get the basics right, why are you looking to deliver the product abroad? C919 needs to first get heavily used in China by Chinese airlines and prove that it can do 10 hour days and have 99% up time before they try export it anywhere. The success of this program depends on a lot of small incremental improvements.

Rowdyhorse4 said:
tbh, not really, don't expect 20-30 years haha.

They developed/certified the aircraft in about 11 years, so using indigenous subsystems is not going to take 20-30 years. For example, adding a new engine type is normal for aircraft programs. A320NEO itself has 2 different engine options. COMAC itself already said they can get to 90% domestic parts in a few years. They are already at 60% and that number will go a lot higher with domestic engine. Given what they've already done, I think we need to give them the benefit of doubt.

Rowdyhorse4 said:
I did a degree on it and did internships at airbus china as part of it (and some small craft VFR), COVID struck so i went on to other sectors unfortunately. but the lessons learned from my time is not insignificant for me IMO, part of it understanding airline operation and how they historically procure the aircraft they operate. again feel free to challenge it, although for your previous post as i said, i agreed with most of it hence i left it out. ( i would have focused the quote on the range aspect if i knew i could but i didn't then)

per airbus, am basing it off data used in university and official data set (COMAC uploaded their c919 reference data pdf) not marketing. Airlines can configure the aircraft however they want that is true. imagine if RyanAir manages to actually implement their standing system haha. even so basing off their reference data is still OK imo until further data and operational history of the C919 gets established. though at some point, passengers would get uncomfortable riding a c919 if airlines configure too much beyond its reference design (smaller seat space for example). Once C919 is more used, hopefully we get to find real data that is used as reference for pilots/ground crew doing calculations with fuel/payload/range configuration etc.

mind you, i'm not against mainland airlines put a huge bet on C919 once its more established or better yet, once COMAC launches an updated iteration with higher efficiency ratings.

as for cargo revenue, its up to the carrier on what they want to do with it. the aircraft just provides them the flexibility for it.

>As for rest of your commentary, I do believe you can change these systems do mostly domestic.

Ah do note, that what i mentioned is my opinion not a fact. IF Comac is able to substitute majority of the C919 components with domestic parts without stepping on their intl partner's patents/copyrights, it would be a great thing eventually. I'm just skeptical on how easy it is to do substitution without stepping on patent infringement.

I can assure you the official Airbus data are not representative of reality. Cargo revenue for narrow body aircraft is not a thing. It bugs the heck out of me when people talk about it. I'm not talking about people here, but airline fanboys.

btw, here is China Eastern's A320 layout, so 158 seat

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it's C919 layout is 164 seat

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I see from wiki that it's MTOW is 78.9t and A320NEO's MTOW is in 79t. Empty weight is 45.7t vs 44.3t for A320NEO. That seems fine.
3% higher empty weight for almost 4% extra seating.

I don't see weight as an issue for C919. If they want to add to range of C919, they can always do PIPs in the future. Availability, serviceability and maintainability are the real questions here for C919.

tphuang · Jan 10, 2023

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612855520435617792

Airbus dominates the narrow body market. Between A220 and A320NEO series, it has delivered 569 plane vs 387 by Boeing. We are basically in a 60 vs 40 market place and headed toward probably 70/30 once A220 ramps up further. No relief in sight for Boeing since they have announced new moon shot projects.

What does this mean for C919? As I've said, no new project by Airbus/Boeing is great news for COMAC. If Airbus/Boeing launches a new program in 5 years, it likely won't go into service until 2035. For example, both B787 and A350 took that 7 years from program launching to joining service. COMAC has the time to scope out the market and launch its own competition to that by early 2030s.

By then, the competitive landscape might look different. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Boeing pulls out of civil aviation market. This has now been speculated by quite a few analysts. Either way, 737 is unlikely to be an option for Chinese airlines in the current geopolitical situation, so C919 is the only alternative to Chinese airlines.

gelgoog · Jan 10, 2023

tphuang said:
Airbus dominates the narrow body market. Between A220 and A320NEO series, it has delivered 569 plane vs 387 by Boeing. We are basically in a 60 vs 40 market place and headed toward probably 70/30 once A220 ramps up further. No relief in sight for Boeing since they have announced new moon shot projects.

It is even worse for Boeing than that. Airbus is converting the former A380 production facilities to crank out A321neo aircraft. So it won't be just A220 production that will increase but A321neo as well.

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tphuang said:
What does this mean for C919? As I've said, no new project by Airbus/Boeing is great news for COMAC. If Airbus/Boeing launches a new program in 5 years, it likely won't go into service until 2035. For example, both B787 and A350 took that 7 years from program launching to joining service. COMAC has the time to scope out the market and launch its own competition to that by early 2030s.

COMAC needs to change C919 to use composite wing and more Chinese components. Between that and the C929 there is no shortage of work for them. I would also start designing a replacement for the ARJ21 to be ready once the Chinese engine in that class comes out.

tphuang · Jan 10, 2023

I just deleted many posts that was taking this thread completely off track. This has turned out to be a very emotional topic. Please provide your arguments with facts.

taxiya · Jan 10, 2023

The maximum distance between any two points of China's landmass is below 5000 km. The distances from Chinese border cities to any neighbouring SAE, Japan and SK cities are no more than 4000km. C-919 isn't an intercontinental aircraft. So what is the advantage of having a longer than 5500km range?

A320neo on the other hand is operated in many cases as an intercontinental aircraft such as from Tashkent to London. It is a use case that most large airlines have no interest in, they would prefer the duel-isle large aircraft.

luosifen · Jan 10, 2023

Here it says there are over 1000 orders for C919:

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2023-01-10 21:22:31Xinhua Editor : Liu Yimeng

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The C919, China's first homegrown large jetliner, had gained 1,035 orders from 32 customers by the end of 2022, according to the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai.
The first C919 aircraft was delivered to China Eastern Airlines in December 2022. The company is expected to put the aircraft into commercial operation by the spring of 2023.
The report also shows that by the end of 2022, the ARJ21, China's homegrown regional jetliner, had received 690 orders from 25 customers.
As a pioneer of China-developed commercial airplanes, ARJ21 was put into commercial service by Chengdu Airlines in June 2016. As of the end of 2022, ARJ21 jetliners have safely carried around 6 million passengers, according to the report.

tphuang · Jan 10, 2023

luosifen said:
Here it says there are over 1000 orders for C919:

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2023-01-10 21:22:31Xinhua Editor : Liu Yimeng
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The C919, China's first homegrown large jetliner, had gained 1,035 orders from 32 customers by the end of 2022, according to the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai.
The first C919 aircraft was delivered to China Eastern Airlines in December 2022. The company is expected to put the aircraft into commercial operation by the spring of 2023.
The report also shows that by the end of 2022, the ARJ21, China's homegrown regional jetliner, had received 690 orders from 25 customers.
As a pioneer of China-developed commercial airplanes, ARJ21 was put into commercial service by Chengdu Airlines in June 2016. As of the end of 2022, ARJ21 jetliners have safely carried around 6 million passengers, according to the report.

again, it doesn't matter how many orders they have. That's not relevant. People need to stop focusing on that. Even firm orders can be easily canceled. The important part is how well the initial service entrance goes and how well COMAC resolves issues in that first 2 years.

I'm encouraged that the test flying program of MU C919 is already more aggressive than in service schedule of the earliest ARJ21. C919 in every way has been a far more success program than ARJ-21. But the next year is going to be very important in making sure C919 becomes a successful program.

YISOW · Jan 10, 2023

Rowdyhorse4 said:
i think O'Leary said something about them still being committed in 2020 but i'm gonna wait for EASA's type certification AND ryan air putting an order in or leasing it.

Edit1: ok yeah he's erring in the side of caution.

""We would welcome a third person to break the duopoly between Boeing and Airbus. We would hope that they (COMAC) will have a good aircraft, but that aircraft will have a lot of tried-and-tested Western components as well. And the question is, will that be reflected in the pricing of those aircraft or not?" -O'leary

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Well Chinese LCC like Chunqiu and Huaxia will show Ryan how to operate C919 and get profit

COMAC C919

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