Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

tacoburger said:

The sheer speed that's happening is what's gonna shock people. We already see that policy makers have zero idea what's going on in China and tend to react with shock and outright denial when confronted with facts.

There's no way that they can react to such a rapidly changing situation when China goes from "They import the majority of their oil/LNG from Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Iran that has to go through the Malacca straits">"peak oil demand">"they import a moderate amount of oil/LNG from sea lanes">"overland pipelines/domestic production can entirely fulfill their basic needs and whatever oil that still comes from sea lanes is just for refining/producing oil deprived products for export">"domestic production can entirely fulfill their basic needs and overland pipelines just provide oil for oil deprived products and for refining and export">"China becomes a net oil/energy/fossil fuel exporter off entirely domestic production"

And each step in that chain might only take a year or two. China's electric vehicles still has a ton of room to grow, right now the percentage of all vehicles in use in China that are EVs are still less than 10% and we're already seeing peak oil demand due to that, can you imagine how low oil demand will go when >50% of vehicles in China are electric, and of course the insane growth in renewables and green hydrocarbon production and China's own growth in domestic fossil fuel production. It's hard to stay on top of the situation when by the time you gather the data and write your report, it's already massively outdated.

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so the thing is, it might take 3 or 4 more years to have close to 100% NEVs in Passenger vehicle sector

And then another 2 years for trucks and commercial vehicles to all be NEVs or CNG powered

That's for new sales, and then ICE cars need to go away, that might take 4 more years for people to actively dump their old ICE vehicles.

But you are looking at 10 years from now, when gas stations are all just charging stations

Over the next few years, a good chunk of green electricity coming online will be supporting this vehicle demand

Definitely possible to see them become a net energy exporter by 2035 if they continue to grow at current pace

tacoburger said:

The sheer speed that's happening is what's gonna shock people. We already see that policy makers have zero idea what's going on in China and tend to react with shock and outright denial when confronted with facts.

There's no way that they can react to such a rapidly changing situation when China goes from "They import the majority of their oil/LNG from Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Iran that has to go through the Malacca straits">"peak oil demand">"they import a moderate amount of oil/LNG from sea lanes">"overland pipelines/domestic production can entirely fulfill their basic needs and whatever oil that still comes from sea lanes is just for refining/producing oil deprived products for export">"domestic production can entirely fulfill their basic needs and overland pipelines just provide oil for oil deprived products and for refining and export">"China becomes a net oil/energy/fossil fuel exporter off entirely domestic production"

And each step in that chain might only take a year or two. China's electric vehicles still has a ton of room to grow, right now the percentage of all vehicles in use in China that are EVs are still less than 10% and we're already seeing peak oil demand due to that, can you imagine how low oil demand will go when >50% of vehicles in China are electric, and of course the insane growth in renewables and green hydrocarbon production and China's own growth in domestic fossil fuel production. It's hard to stay on top of the situation when by the time you gather the data and write your report, it's already massively outdated.

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tphuang said:

so the thing is, it might take 3 or 4 more years to have close to 100% NEVs in Passenger vehicle sector

And then another 2 years for trucks and commercial vehicles to all be NEVs or CNG powered

That's for new sales, and then ICE cars need to go away, that might take 4 more years for people to actively dump their old ICE vehicles.

But you are looking at 10 years from now, when gas stations are all just charging stations

Over the next few years, a good chunk of green electricity coming online will be supporting this vehicle demand

Definitely possible to see them become a net energy exporter by 2035 if they continue to grow at current pace

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In that case, given the national security importance WRT China's efforts at weaving itself off sea-based energy imports as best as possible - It does makes me think that if anything were to happen in the IndoPac region (whether that be about Taiwan, Diaoyu and/or the SCS), it would be a best-case scenario if that can be deferred to the mid-2030s.

Or at the earliest, after the 2020-decade...

ACuriousPLAFan said:

In that case, given the national energy security importance WRT China's efforts at weaving itself off sea-based energy imports as best as possible - It does makes me think that if anything were to happen in the IndoPac region (whether that be about Taiwan, Diaoyu and/or the SCS), it would be a best-case scenario if that can be deferred to the mid-2030s.

Or at the earliest, after the 2020-decade...

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That opens up a huge new can of worms

I will just say this. Thinking about spending $350B a year on import of oil & NG and turning that to a surplus in the future once you start exporting green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol to Europe

There is so much empty desert land in China waiting for a solar panel

ACuriousPLAFan said:

In that case, given the national energy security importance WRT China's efforts at weaving itself off sea-based energy imports as best as possible - It does makes me think that if anything were to happen in the IndoPac region (whether that be about Taiwan, Diaoyu and/or the SCS), it would be a best-case scenario if that can be deferred to the mid-2030s.

Or at the earliest, after the 2020-decade...

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Yeah. And it's not just energy, food and semiconductors is also big on China's self sufficiency drive that will only improve with time. China is finally going big on GMO crops to boost yield and other technology to boost food supply, same for semiconductors we're just waiting for EUV on that front. By 2030 hopefully China will be more or less self sufficient in food, high end semiconductors, other crucial high end technology and fossil fuels/energy that a naval blockade to try to starve China in the short term out will be basically useless, so direct conflict over Taiwan will be the only option.

And nobody wants direct fighting. Why reason why a naval blockade is so often talked about is that it's an option for America to beat China without directly fighting them and causing WW3. Avoid a shooting war and just park a few carriers in the Malacca Straits and starve China out without plunging the world into nuclear war China and hoping that China backs off after they run out of fossil fuels/food. That's basically the exact situation with Ukraine-Russia, they cannot afford to get involved in direct conflict with a major nuclear power so sanctions come raining down to get Russia to back down or hurt them badly enough to turn the tide of the war. But Russia is a net food and energy exporter so their basic needs are met at least.

Honestly I think China's master plan is just to ramp up the threat ladder so high that America and it's allies realizes that the only option is direct conflict with China that they cannot afford and backs off in Taiwan. As a side effect of the threatening posture that China has it's that's vast efforts made by American and Europe to be self sufficient in semiconductors, as we can see with the TSMC plants in America . Sure America might be willing to risk potential WW3 for an island that's the source of most of it's semiconductors, but once America/Europe is self sufficient in even high end semiconductors? We will probably see the same half hearted support similar to the Russia-Ukraine war. As a bonus, if America/Europe/China is self sufficient in high end semiconductors, Taiwan's economy is going to drop off a cliff.

Oh and China is expected to double's nuclear arsenal by 2030...

China Renewable Energy Society (CRES) published the nominations for its awards in 2023. Wind turbines and related technologies seem to be the majority.

tphuang said:

That opens up a huge new can of worms

I will just say this. Thinking about spending $350B a year on import of oil & NG and turning that to a surplus in the future once you start exporting green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol to Europe

There is so much empty desert land in China waiting for a solar panel

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It would make more sense for those solar panels and green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol plants to be installed in the Middle East.

1. They have a lot of empty desert and cheap imported labour.
2. Panels in the Middle East generate even more electricity as it is a sunnier climate
3. Green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol plants only require a small number of skilled workers to operate, so it doesn't make any difference. If anything, the Middle Eastern workers will be tax free.
4. Transport costs to Europe are also lower.
5. The Middle East is a politically safe location for Chinese investments

So we'll probably have Chinese companies setting up or forming joint-ventures, to build plants in UAE or Saudi for example.

tphuang said:

There is so much empty desert land in China waiting for a solar panel

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Yep.

A napkin calculation indicates that China could usefully install at a bare minimum of 5000GW of solar panels in the next decade (generating roughly 5000? TWh of electricity), yet this would only occupy 50,000km2

This would require average installations of 500GW of panels per year, compared to the 150GW expected this year.

Chinese solar polysilicon capacity is growing by roughly 750,000? tonnes next year, which could be turned into an additional 250GW of solar panels.

Solar panels already provide the lowest cost electricity in China.

So a huge solar panel buildout makes sense if:
1. You want to undertake an infrastructure or stimulus project which has moderate and positive economic returns every year
2. Dominate a key future industry
3. Clean up pollution
4. Rely less on imported hydrocarbons

AndrewS said:

It would make more sense for those solar panels and green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol plants to be installed in the Middle East.
...
So we'll probably have Chinese companies setting up or forming joint-ventures, to build plants in UAE or Saudi for example.

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There was a proposal several years ago to build solar power plants in North Africa and sell the energy to the European market.

gelgoog said:

There was a proposal several years ago to build solar power plants in North Africa and sell the energy to the European market.

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Well they should have started building this out in the late 1990s or early 2000s the EU would have been so much better prepared for a post Russian hydrocarbons economic situation.

AndrewS said:

It would make more sense for those solar panels and green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol plants to be installed in the Middle East.

1. They have a lot of empty desert and cheap imported labour.
2. Panels in the Middle East generate even more electricity as it is a sunnier climate
3. Green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol plants only require a small number of skilled workers to operate, so it doesn't make any difference. If anything, the Middle Eastern workers will be tax free.
4. Transport costs to Europe are also lower.
5. The Middle East is a politically safe location for Chinese investments

So we'll probably have Chinese companies setting up or forming joint-ventures, to build plants in UAE or Saudi for example.

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well, i've posted many projects they have in middle east now. Not a small number.

Chinese solar panel producers are searching the word for new markets.