A mild and very wet winter are the main factors for this. Good news is that the hydro generation will likely continue to soar over the next month at least, looking at the forecasts, there's gonna be a lot of rain for south-west china for the month. Bad news is that a warm winter will likely mean a very hot summer, especially when 2024 was already a record year for heatwaves in China.Thermal power generation in China, fuelled mainly by coal, fell at the beginning of the year, down in both January and February, official data showed, one of only a handful of times it has declined during that period in more than two decades.
China's total power generation dipped by 1.3% to 1.49 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in the first two months of the year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
Outside of 2020, at the start of COVID-19, and 2009 - following the global financial crisis - this was the first time power demand has fallen since at least 1998.
An unseasonably warm winter has weighed on demand. Last year was China's warmest since comparable records began more than six decades ago, according to meteorological data.
China's mostly coal-powered thermal power generation led the decline, falling 5.8% in January and February, to 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh). Natural gas-fired power plants also contribute a small portion to thermal power generation.
The data is combined for both months to smooth out the effects of the Lunar New Year.
Hydropower, China's second-largest power source, rose 4.5% to 146.1 billion kWh, while solar and wind power generation grew 27% and 10%, respectively, during the period.
Looks like unless we get a very very bad summer, China is more or less guaranteed to have a fall in their carbon emissions and coal usage this year. If the summer is mild too by some miracle, then we could actually see a very big drop. Maybe 5%?