Chinese UCAV/CCA/flying wing drones (ISR, A2A, A2G) thread

Wrought

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The assumption is that the 1IC has already been neutralised.

After all, there's no point in developing long-range aircraft systems against the 2IC for air superiority, if there is still resistance in the 1IC. Operational American airbases in the Japan pose a far bigger threat to mainland China.

Also, Chinese aircraft would largely be flying via the Bashi Straits to the South of Taiwan.
So they would be at least 1000km+ distant from the Japanese Home Islands

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Remember that all of the Japanese Home Islands are within 1300km of mainland China. That is within range of:

1. Subsonic Tomahawk/JASSM class missiles and hypersonic DF-17 class missiles (~$2 Million each) for the initial strikes

2. Very low-cost Shaheed type cruise missiles for sustained strikes. (we see Russia launching salvoes of up to 800 in Ukraine today)

3. Tactical stealth fighters, when supported by Tankers for air superiority.
Note that in 10 years time (2035), we're likely looking at 1500-2000 5th gen stealth fighters such as the J-20 and J-35. Plus the first 6th gen air superiority aircraft like the J-36 and J-XDS. Along with the 6th gen UADFs in service.

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When I compare this against what the US could field in Japan in 2035 , I do expect Japan to be neutralised and under effective blockade.

I mean, if you assume that you've already won, then yeah, you've already won. Rather tautological.

By the time Japan is neutralized, I expect Guam to be little more than empty hangars. Because that means they've already commited and lost all of their assets defending Japan.
 

sunnymaxi

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A twin AEF-50 (5KN) turbofan powers the PLA variant
View attachment 161439

ZF-850 is a FADEC turbojet made by private company ZFTX appeared on the export model Wing Loong-10B/X,
View attachment 161440
View attachment 161449
ZhongFaTianXin is a private company and have big ambitions.. their main focus is, small/medium gas turbine Engines.

The overall two-phase plan covers an area of more than 130,000m2, with an investment of RMB 3.2 billion. At present, phase I of the project has been completed, with a 20kN and a 50kN engine test bed, and its annual production capacity is 50 small Engines. For phase II, the goal is to improve testing capabilities and expand production capacity. After completion, the annual production capacity will reach 300 units, and at the same time, the company will reach the national military standard, have verification capabilities of related airworthiness tests, and have scientific research and test capabilities of aeroengines.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
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I mean, if you assume that you've already won, then yeah, you've already won. Rather tautological.

It's not tautological. It's logic.

As I point out, if there are American airbases still operating in Japan in the 1IC, these are more of a threat to mainland China than any base in the 2IC.

So there's no point developing (more expensive) long-range systems for the 2IC and beyond, unless you assume that Japan can be neutralised.

Remember that this logic is driving China's very expensive weapons development programmes.

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It also means that even if Japan is additionally fortified, China has the capacity to redirect resources from systems designed for the 2IC to the 1IC, and ensure that Japan is neutralised

By the time Japan is neutralized, I expect Guam to be little more than empty hangars. Because that means they've already commited and lost all of their assets defending Japan.

If there is a war, I expect the Chinese military to aim for air superiority over both the 1IC and 2IC - right from the beginning of such a hypothetical conflict. So there will be assets located in both the 1IC and 2IC. Guam represents a "safer" base in that it is further away, and is not subject to Japanese political control.

Remember the background.

1. Biden and the previous Japanese Prime Minister both publicly stated that they had the option of going to war with China.

2. Ray Dalio and the late Henry Kissinger also publicly stated that the rest of the world sees the USA as being "overly aggressive" towards China. And in recent months, China has been on the receiving end of an even more aggressive America. (Caveat here, in that the rest of the world has been subject to American bullying)

What is the logical Chinese response?

If you ignore the undervalued exchange rate, the Chinese economy is approaching twice the size of the US, in terms of real output of goods and services. So China should be able to build a larger military and still bankrupt the US in an arms race. Today, if you look at procurement of equivalent naval and air platforms, China is buying ~2x more stuff every year.


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So tell me what the military balance looks like in 2035 with respect to China-Japan-US.

I've already outlined what I think are the core power projection elements that China would use against Japan.

And I'll add that the USAF presentation states that China has a 4x speed advantage in weapons development and a 20x cost advantage in equivalent hypersonic missiles. Granted, these are the more extreme examples, but you get the idea.

Also, Russia currently produces about 5000 Shaheed Type cruise missiles per month, and these are relatively simple to produce.
Then remember that China's overall manufacturing sector is ~90x larger than Russias. (NB Not that I expect China to actually produce or need anywhere near 450K shaheeds per month)
 

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's not tautological. It's logic.

As I point out, if there are American airbases still operating in Japan in the 1IC, these are more of a threat to mainland China than any base in the 2IC.

So there's no point developing (more expensive) long-range systems for the 2IC and beyond, unless you assume that Japan can be neutralised.

Remember that this logic is driving China's very expensive weapons development programmes.

It's bad logic. More distant bases will quite logically host higher numbers of vulnerable support assets like AWACS/tankers/etc, while closer bases host mainly short-legged fighters. Which are all obviously designed to operate as a mutually reinforcing system. And your approach of focusing on the nearby fighters before degrading the distant enablers is the exact opposite of systems destruction warfare. Taking out the fewer, higher-value, but better-protected enablers first cripples all the fighters.

In other words, the point of developing those expensive long-range systems to hit Guam is in fact to neutralize Japan.

If there is a war, I expect the Chinese military to aim for air superiority over both the 1IC and 2IC - right from the beginning of such a hypothetical conflict. So there will be assets located in both the 1IC and 2IC. Guam represents a "safer" base in that it is further away, and is not subject to Japanese political control.

Yeah, that's what I said already. The first and second island chains support each other. Which is why your assumption about the first being gone is tautological. If the first is gone, then you've already won.
 
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tphuang

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