Chinese UCAV/CCA/flying wing drones (ISR, A2A, A2G) thread

AndrewS

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According to the grapevine, the US has at least one uncrewed, presumably "full sized," strike platform that has already progressed fairly far along. Might have test flown already.

However, this program is also reportedly what incurred a
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for Lockheed last quarter. Nevertheless, Lockheed CEO James Taiclet remains quite excited about things:

But from what bases will such an aircraft operate from? They would face the same problem as any other aircraft.

The 1IC is just too close to China.
And in the 2IC, there are so few bases and we can see Chinese aircraft being developed specifically to overwhelm these bases and the supporting aircraft carriers.
 

Jason_

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I'm not saying that WZ-X and GJ-X can't do missions at distances greater than the 2IC, but rather that they are perfectly suited for 2IC missions.
I wouldn't characterize WZ-X and GJ-X as "perfectly suited for 2IC missions." Rather it is the untenable position that the US find itself in geographically with the 2IC (i.e. no major land mass other than Guam) that makes any platform with sufficient survivability, range and payload extremely lethal against 2IC targets.

To me its quite clear that WZ/GJ-X are designed for missions well beyond the 2IC. The much smaller CH-7 with 26m wingspan would actually be an example of a 2IC-oriented design. Furthermore, the long IWB for long range missile requirement is also unsuitable for 2IC mission since that role is already filled by land and naval long range missiles (i.e. I would expect a 2IC bomber to be optimized for glide bombs or ~4m weapons that fit inside tactical jets).
Sure, but considering fighting a comprehensive high intensity westpac conflict would be a more pressing priority for the PLA to master for now, and the more pressing threat/relevance of US capabilities in 2IC than in Alaska, those sort of missions would be more of a luxury for observers at this stage to consider relative to 2IC missions, no?
The mere ability to threaten Alaska, Hawaii, ships in the middle of the Pacific/Atlantic and CONUS can lead to changes to resource allocation on the US side that are very favorable to Chinese security. In fact, the perception that the US homeland is under great threat from long range Chinese strike is exactly the sort of impetus that might lead to US strategic policy changes to pursue detente with China/pull out of Asia Pacific.
 

Blitzo

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TBH, I referenced and
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Lockheed's near billion dollar quarterly loss from the program in question largely to see if it'll disarm certain audiences here who might get "skeptical" about a reasonable take when it's applied to the "wrong" country.

Yes, I could tell that's what you were trying to do.
Please don't try it again in future, just be more direct in the future rather than trying to play a game.

Also, please stop formatting your posts with a coloured text. Similar to excessive font sizing, irregular formatting is discouraged. Feel free to use underlines or bolds if you want to particularly emphasize a part of your post


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I think you can have a system that will likely have 90% of their mission set within 2IC, but because they do offer the ability to do further than that, then I would consider that as an asset for the additional missions. For most Chinese systems coming into service now, vast majority of their mission and targeting will be within 2IC.

But there is a difference between assets that can only do with 2IC vs ones that can go further

Well I say perfectly suited for 2IC distances, such a description does exclude the ability to conduct missions further out.

What it does however convey, is the importance of high on station time at 2IC distances -- the high on station time is what for me, makes it "perfectly suited" for missions of that range.

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I wouldn't characterize WZ-X and GJ-X as "perfectly suited for 2IC missions." Rather it is the untenable position that the US find itself in geographically with the 2IC (i.e. no major land mass other than Guam) that makes any platform with sufficient survivability, range and payload extremely lethal against 2IC targets.

To me its quite clear that WZ/GJ-X are designed for missions well beyond the 2IC. The much smaller CH-7 with 26m wingspan would actually be an example of a 2IC-oriented design. Furthermore, the long IWB for long range missile requirement is also unsuitable for 2IC mission since that role is already filled by land and naval long range missiles (i.e. I would expect a 2IC bomber to be optimized for glide bombs or ~4m weapons that fit inside tactical jets).

WZ-X and GJ-X are of course very capable of conducting missions beyond the 2IC.
However, the 2IC is the current relevant mission distance from the PRC mainland where there is a need (and a gap) to have robust, survivable/stealthy, and high on station time ISR and on call strike/prompt reattack. For strike or ISR missions beyond 2IC, on station time (or payload) will drop with distance, naturally.

As for CH-7, I consider it suboptimal for 2IC ranged distances. CH-7 would not really be able to carry much of a payload (sensor or ISR) and loiter at 2IC distances for 12-24 hours in the way I envision WZ-X and GJ-X to do.


The mere ability to threaten Alaska, Hawaii, ships in the middle of the Pacific/Atlantic and CONUS can lead to changes to resource allocation on the US side that are very favorable to Chinese security. In fact, the perception that the US homeland is under great threat from long range Chinese strike is exactly the sort of impetus that might lead to US strategic policy changes to pursue detente with China/pull out of Asia Pacific.

Sure, but for that to be considered a truly credible wartime capability, it would require the PLA to have roflstomp levels of western pacific dominance attained first, which among other things would require high bandwidth, all domain superiority up to, including and perhaps slightly beyond 2IC distances.

Which takes me back to the importance of filling the survivable/long endurance 2IC fixed wing ISR and strike gap that WZ-X and GJ-X can do.
 

Blitzo

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What are the chances of ever seeing GJ-X in a public demo, airshow or parade etc. I suppose if they are going to procure enough of it to make a difference, it's going to be in the high tens or low hundred. Would be difficult to keep a secret unlike the WZ-X which is strategic in nature and probably less than a dozen will be procured.

They have flown MALE sized fixed wing drones at air shows before, so an eventual overflight by GJ-X or WZ-X isn't impossible (or eventual static display many years into the future).

But I doubt they will ever be comfortable flying unmanned aircraft down central Beijing for a parade.

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Has anyone seen the debut of J-6w? Here is one article with a write up. A while back, there were discussions on this forum about J-6 conversion. The downside is significant.
1. they use airfield which is a valuable resource (compared to other uavs which are shot into the air)
2. The cost of conversion could go up to hundreds of thousands. This compares unfavorably to other suicide drones.
3. Maintenance and storage in peace time is much more demanding compared to other drone.

Yet, the Chinese military decided to go ahead and make the conversion. Most people speculate that this is not a one time suicide drone, but an unmanned reusable bomb truck. What are your thoughts about the merits of such a conversion?

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The Chinese military at the time of when they made those conversions, was very different to the PLA of today, so the conversation is almost meaningless to have because the priorities and resources are so different.

And as others have said, the J-6W is basically retired now, so this isn't so much a "debut" rather than a "look at what we no longer use anymore".


I am aware that J-6 had been retired. Converting them for target drones make a lot of sense, since you want your drone to behave like a fighter aircraft. I am just pondering the large scale conversion of these aircrafts into combat drones and how they would be used in times of war.

The same driving reasons for why it doesn't make sense for the PLA of today to retain J-6Ws for this role, is the same reason why it doesn't make sense for the PLA to convert J-7s or other obsolescent fighters into combat drones for this role.
There are better applications of personnel, airfields, fuel, than using them for obsolete fighter-conversion-drones.
 

Jason_

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WZ-X and GJ-X are of course very capable of conducting missions beyond the 2IC.
However, the 2IC is the current relevant mission distance from the PRC mainland where there is a need (and a gap) to have robust, survivable/stealthy, and high on station time ISR and on call strike/prompt reattack. For strike or ISR missions beyond 2IC, on station time (or payload) will drop with distance, naturally.
I should clarify that I agree that the WZ-X's persistence would make it perfect for missions at any distance from the mainland so they are indeed "perfect for 2IC". However, the argument for persistence for the GJ-X is less clear. Sortie generation is much more valuable, and time sensitive targets can be engaged with land/naval hypersonics.
As for CH-7, I consider it suboptimal for 2IC ranged distances. CH-7 would not really be able to carry much of a payload (sensor or ISR) and loiter at 2IC distances for 12-24 hours in the way I envision WZ-X and GJ-X to do.
If you have a constant stream of CH-7 sized bombers carrying payload, you in effect always have payload on station. You would also be able to do pulsed operations as situation demands. This beats one GJ-X on station for 12-24 hours.
Sure, but for that to be considered a truly credible wartime capability, it would require the PLA to have roflstomp levels of western pacific dominance attained first, which among other things would require high bandwidth, all domain superiority up to, including and perhaps slightly beyond 2IC distances.

Which takes me back to the importance of filling the survivable/long endurance 2IC fixed wing ISR and strike gap that WZ-X and GJ-X can do.
To me the fact that the PLAAF built the GJ-X very much suggest that the PLA expect to be have roflstomp level westpac dominance on the time frame when these systems become operational, through a combination of stand off missiles, 6th gen tactical fighters and CSGs. I should add that I actually expect the PLA to build 1500-2000nm ranged VLO drone bombers given the cost effectiveness of these systems and the obvious naval possibilities.
 

tphuang

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It is interesting looking at CH7 several years ago and thinking that it looked like potentially a very impressive platform. And now we have more impressive platform that has already flown. It seems CH7 is basically an export project. Whereas GJ11/21 has cornered the main UCAV role for the next 5 to 7 years.
 

Blitzo

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I should clarify that I agree that the WZ-X's persistence would make it perfect for missions at any distance from the mainland so they are indeed "perfect for 2IC". However, the argument for persistence for the GJ-X is less clear. Sortie generation is much more valuable, and time sensitive targets can be engaged with land/naval hypersonics.

Agree on the WZ-X role then.

For GJ-X, I see where you are coming from, but imo for the 2IC fixed wing strike role, it is less about sortie generation but rather a combination of deliverable effects/fires at effective distances.

Essentially, for GJ-X in the 2IC role I see two major reasons why it is quite well suited for it in a manner that other existing or forthcoming PLA fires cannot do:

1) large bomb load re-attack after (or simultaneously with) long range hypersonic/ballistic missile fires. The ability of GJ-X to carry a large load of equivalent 500kg glide bombs means that while initial air defenses are degraded by hypersonic/ballistic strikes and before defenses can be re-established, the GJ-X can get closer to the target (say, 60-100km away) and launch strikes to re-attack. This mission would be one that would be occurring at or slightly after the opening phases of a large scale missile strike at 2IC distances, with the aim of putting air defenses, infrastructure, runways, and individual airframes more permanently out of service.

2) ability to loiter while carrying large bomb loads of equivalent PGMs, to hit land based time sensitive targets (assuming at this point that high end opfor IADS are degraded), without having to pass the ISR chain back up to rocket forces or PLAN and then to launch long range hypersonics or ballistic missiles, and to instead allow GJ-X to prosecute the target itself. This mission would be one that occurs after large scale degradation of 2IC bases have occurred, and would be instead done to prevent re-establishment of opfor 2IC positions and prevent using 2IC bases as small scale sensor/shooting bases by the opfor, and thus in turn allow PLAAF and PLAN to have greater freedom of action at 2IC distances.

Both of the above roles essentially benefit from GJ-X's VLO status to enable it to get closer to a target, relatively large payload in terms of equivalent PGMs (thus no. of targets engaged), and long range/endurance to be able to flexibly re-task or loiter as needed.



If you have a constant stream of CH-7 sized bombers carrying payload, you in effect always have payload on station. You would also be able to do pulsed operations as situation demands. This beats one GJ-X on station for 12-24 hours.

For the above two mission profiles I described, CH-7 definitely wouldn't be able to do 2)

In terms of 1), it somewhat depends on the payload and range of CH-7, but based on the numbers we do have of it (TOW of under 10tons!), I cannot see it carrying much of a payload to 2IC distances.
By weight, CH-7 is probably even lighter than GJ-11/21, and GJ-11/21 is a UCAV whose range and payload is more optimized to 1ICish and beyond ranges.

m3HHMZv.png




To me the fact that the PLAAF built the GJ-X very much suggest that the PLA expect to be have roflstomp level westpac dominance on the time frame when these systems become operational, through a combination of stand off missiles, 6th gen tactical fighters and CSGs. I should add that I actually expect the PLA to build 1500-2000nm ranged VLO drone bombers given the cost effectiveness of these systems and the obvious naval possibilities.

I see GJ-X as one of the final arrows in the quiver to enable them to achieve that level of comprehensive westpac dominance.

Of course, in conflict if that level of success is achieved as planned, and strategic positions are secured, then certainly platforms like GJ-X, WZ-X, CSGs and so forth (SSNs/SSGNs, future H-20 etc) will be able to safely have the strategic initiative to conduct missions and raids outside of westpac distances to central pacific, southern pacific, and beyond...


As for 1500-2000nm VLO UCAVs, in theory such a UCAV could sit between the weight class of GJ-11 and GJ-X. Though I also think GJ-X could probably perform that mission fairly well too given its large size would enable long endurance missions at those distances without having to introduce another airframe family. But who knows.

It is interesting looking at CH7 several years ago and thinking that it looked like potentially a very impressive platform. And now we have more impressive platform that has already flown. It seems CH7 is basically an export project. Whereas GJ11/21 has cornered the main UCAV role for the next 5 to 7 years.

TBH even when CH-7 emerged, once we knew what size profile it had, I felt it was something that didn't really suit the PLA's needs, considering at the time we already knew they'd committed to GJ-11.
 
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tphuang

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What China needs to do over next few years is build up the infrastructure across more airports to support these large UCAVs.

that seems like not so easy given the size of these aircraft.

I agree with the idea that on time matters more for ISR vs attack aircraft.
 

00CuriousObserver

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- It’s probably more accurate to think of this as WH - 无轰 (wu hong, unmanned bomber) rather than “GJ”. So maybe "WH-X". Given its role and significance, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PLA creates an entirely new category. After all, there’s a difference between a “ground-attack aircraft” and a true “bomber.”

- One theory suggests this aircraft was shown intentionally, since China closely tracks the exact timetables of Western spy satellites. If the plane was highly confidential, exposing it, especially to a commercial satellite, would seem like a serious oversight

- Updated pic for comparison with the WZ-X. We now better estimate its length to be around 22 m. I also updated WZ-X’s length to ~13 m.

wzxgjx comparison en.png
 

Clark Gap

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- It’s probably more accurate to think of this as WH - 无轰 (wu hong, unmanned bomber) rather than “GJ”. So maybe "WH-X". Given its role and significance, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PLA creates an entirely new category. After all, there’s a difference between a “ground-attack aircraft” and a true “bomber.”

- One theory suggests this aircraft was shown intentionally, since China closely tracks the exact timetables of Western spy satellites. If the plane was highly confidential, exposing it, especially to a commercial satellite, would seem like a serious oversight

- Updated pic for comparison with the WZ-X. We now better estimate its length to be around 22 m. I also updated WZ-X’s length to ~13 m.

View attachment 161150

Another explanation is that, with the rapid global proliferation of high-resolution Earth-observation satellites, evading satellite reconnaissance is becoming increasingly difficult and costly for testing operations — to the point where the effort is no longer worth the benefit.
 
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