Chinese UAV/UCAV development

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Blitzo

Blitzo

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Deino said:
In fact - and even more so after the CS-5000T was unveiled, I slowly get the feeling, there is no GJ-11 ready ...

We've seen the demonstrator in 2013 and since then NOTHING but mock-ups. Itt's almost like Nessi, the Yeti or the WP-14 Kunlun.
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I don't think that they would consistently show it at these sort of official appearances -- this one being as official as the come -- if it truly wasn't in hands of the PLA in a relatively advanced form. It just isn't the PLA style.


What this pattern shows to me, is more that the PLA is very much capable of keeping things hidden from us if they want to, IMO.
 
Deino

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Blitzo said:
I don't think that they would consistently show it at these sort of official appearances -- this one being as official as the come -- if it truly wasn't in hands of the PLA in a relatively advanced form. It just isn't the PLA style.


What this pattern shows to me, is more that the PLA is very much capable of keeping things hidden from us if they want to, IMO.
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I know and probably I should have better added a smiley ;) but my point is, even if we had no images of the H-6N or J-20 at several units, we've seen them on satellite imagery before. Here is contrast: Nothing, NADA! We have at best a hand-full of images showing the demonstrator in 2013 and since then ONLY mock-ups, not even a single image of a real GJ-11.

Biscuits said:
Gj11 made its appearance during a PLA event as far back as 2019. Historically, systems are never taken outside unless they're in service.
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Not really! A mock-up made an appearance but no actual real one was seen so far.
 
Blitzo

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Deino said:
I know and probably I should have better added a smiley ;) but my point is, even if we had no images of the H-6N or J-20 at several units, we've seen them on satellite imagery before. Here is contrast: Nothing, NADA! We have at best a hand-full of images showing the demonstrator in 2013 and since then ONLY mock-ups, not even a single image of a real GJ-11.
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Let's put it this way, there are only two possibilities:

1) PLA are showing mockups of GJ-11 over recent years at very official events, and lack of images of the real thing (satellite etc) means that they are officially exaggerating a system that doesn't actually exist.

2) PLA are showing mockups of GJ-11 because it represents a real system that exists, but the lack of pictures we see is because they are doing a good job of deliberately hiding it.


Which do we think is more reasonable? Personally I think I think option 1) at any rate is very unreasonable and somewhat unprecedented.
 
Deino

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Blitzo said:
Let's put it this way, there are only two possibilities:

1) PLA are showing mockups of GJ-11 over recent years at very official events, and lack of images of the real thing (satellite etc) means that they are officially exaggerating a system that doesn't actually exist.

2) PLA are showing mockups of GJ-11 because it represents a real system that exists, but the lack of pictures we see is because they are doing a good job of deliberately hiding it.


Which do we think is more reasonable? Personally I think I think option 1) at any rate is very unreasonable and somewhat unprecedented.
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Agreed, but first you know my impatience, which is once again being put to the test in this case, and on the other hand, I am simply amazed that the PLA has managed to keep this strictly secret for so long.
 
plawolf

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tphuang said:
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Some interesting photos today from 沉默的山羊. GJ2 is considered the best at striking target amongst the currently serving UCAVs in China and that it is first echelon in the world. Makes sense for plaaf to order the one that it thinks is the best in this role. It can attack from 9000m high.

also from photos posted by 沉默的山羊. The WZ10 really got a lot of treatment from the rear. I think it should be quite stealthy. The build quality isn't like what you would find on J-20, but aside from that, everything looks pretty clean and is probably a level higher in stealth than GJ2 or WZ7. I'm just a little bummed that it uses WP11C. Not exactly something you want in a drone that's expected to play a role in 2020s.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593875366585565184
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I think you missed a key word, it’s the best at surveillance (and) strike. That effectively rules out the GJ11 from contention.

While maybe a little marketing cheek to promote their product, it does in a way make sense to class those two into separate categories since the perform very different roles with very little overlap.

GJ2 is your general purpose workhorse UCAV designed for long endurance surveillance while also packing enough punch to kill most targets of opportunity it finds, but has limited survivability against intact modern integrated air defences. The GJ11 is a high value, but still expendable, VLO deep striker designed to hit fixed high value targets deep within enemy IADS umbrellas without needing the massive SEAD/DEAD work up needed to de-fang enemy air defences enough to strike with conventional or manned platforms.
 
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plawolf said:
I think you missed a key word, it’s the best at surveillance (and) strike. That effectively rules out the GJ11 from contention.

While maybe a little marketing cheek to promote their product, it does in a way make sense to class those two into separate categories since the perform very different roles with very little overlap.

GJ2 is your general purpose workhorse UCAV designed for long endurance surveillance while also packing enough punch to kill most targets of opportunity it finds, but has limited survivability against intact modern integrated air defences. The GJ11 is a high value, but still expendable, VLO deep striker designed to hit fixed high value targets deep within enemy IADS umbrellas without needing the massive SEAD/DEAD work up needed to de-fang enemy air defences enough to strike with conventional or manned platforms.
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Again, I didn’t find the word in the screenshot. Perhaps anyone can find out the raw video?
 
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Blitzo said:
Let's put it this way, there are only two possibilities:

1) PLA are showing mockups of GJ-11 over recent years at very official events, and lack of images of the real thing (satellite etc) means that they are officially exaggerating a system that doesn't actually exist.

2) PLA are showing mockups of GJ-11 because it represents a real system that exists, but the lack of pictures we see is because they are doing a good job of deliberately hiding it.


Which do we think is more reasonable? Personally I think I think option 1) at any rate is very unreasonable and somewhat unprecedented.
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J-8 may be a good precedent, it was in Schrödinger's service for many years. It’s also from the same company.
 
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