Chinese UAV/UCAV development

by78 · Nov 6, 2022

plawolf said:
Most of which appeared as stand-alone items, more like proof-of-concepts designs that show promise but isn’t really ready for mass fielding.

Whereas the big stand-out this year is how much they have evolved and been developed into operationally deployable packages and also the widespread way they are being incorporated into other systems suggests to me widespread industry acceptance, which strongly hints at PLA orders.

I don't think so. Most of these systems are as they were at last year's Zhuhai airshow. In fact, I'm struggling to think of anything different this year beyond more evolved laser weapons and a new SAM system against drone swarms.

Stepping back a moment, it's rather odd to attribute any perceived change to lessons supposedly learned from the war in Ukraine. First of all, what lessons have the Chinese learned? How and from where did you learn about what they had learned from the war?

Putting that question aside for a moment, let's assume that some lessons have indeed been absorbed by decision makers and movers in the defense and policy establishment who, as a direct result of the said lessons, began implementing new solutions. The big problem here is that the R&D lead time alone would far exceed the amount of time that transpired between the onset of the war in Ukraine and the opening of 2022 Zhuhai show. Weapon development isn't baking; it takes time to develop, test, and implement new systems. It's absolutely implausible to effect in such a few short months the kinds of significant changes that you observed in your original post.

What I think perhaps is happening is that you're being swayed by

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. That is, you had Ukraine on your mind, which led you to pay disproportionate attention to UAV related news items, if not actively seeking them out, thereby confirming what you had expected to see in the first place, when reality the differences seen this year are objectively very few and small from the past.

Maikeru · Nov 6, 2022

by78 said:
Six WingLoong-2 UAVs.

A real changing of the guard here, the unmanned future marching forward, the manned J7s waiting for the scrapyard.

tankphobia · Nov 6, 2022

I don't think the Ukrainian war will teach the right lessons anyhow, all Russia and Ukraine has access to in terms of UAV is whatever the West/Iran is willing to give. China can build whatever it wants to suit its own military needs which is the complete opposite of their situation. One is able to use the right tool for the job whilst the other has to make do.

A good example of this is the absolute lack of large format MALE UAV present in Ukraine, while we know that China can heavily make use of WL derived strike UAVs in any conflict scenario. It's almost a difference in magnitude of capabilities.

Temstar · Nov 6, 2022

by78 said:
I don't think so. Most of these systems are as they were at last year's Zhuhai airshow. In fact, I'm struggling to think of anything different this year beyond more evolved laser weapons and a new SAM system against drone swarms.

Stepping back a moment, it's rather odd to attribute any perceived change to lessons supposedly learned from the war in Ukraine. First of all, what lessons have the Chinese learned? How and from where did you learn about what they had learned from the war?

Putting that question aside for a moment, let's assume that some lessons have indeed been absorbed by decision makers and movers in the defense and policy establishment who, as a direct result of the said lessons, began implementing new solutions. The big problem here is that the R&D lead time alone would far exceed the amount of time that transpired between the onset of the war in Ukraine and the opening of 2022 Zhuhai show. Weapon development isn't baking; it takes time to develop, test, and implement new systems. It's absolutely implausible to effect in such a few short months the kinds of significant changes that you observed in your original post.

What I think perhaps is happening is that you're being swayed by
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and/or
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. That is, you had Ukraine on your mind, which led you to pay disproportionate attention to UAV related news items, if not actively seeking them out, thereby confirming what you had expected to see in the first place, when reality the differences seen this year are objectively very few and small from the past.

One other difference from previous year is they're showing off more PGMs that are apparently in service with PLAAF. Not sure if that's learning lesson or PLA signalling foreign government though.

lcloo · Nov 6, 2022

I am sure more armed forces around the world are paying more attentions to drones and smart munitions now, as are many of us on this forum, and the manufacturers from China and other countries will push for more product development and marketing.

And the same will happen to anti-drone weapons, with truck mounted laser weapons gaining more sales orders. Also, sales of microwave anti-drone guns will be gaining too.

I don't know whether there is lesson learned from Ukraine war or not, but its effect on sales of drones and smart munitions globally will be tremendous.

tankphobia · Nov 6, 2022

lcloo said:
I am sure more armed forces around the world are paying more attentions to drones and smart munitions now, as are many of us on this forum, and the manufacturers from China and other countries will push for more product development and marketing.

And the same will happen to anti-drone weapons, with truck mounted laser weapons gaining more sales orders. Also, sales of microwave anti-drone guns will be gaining too.

I don't know whether there is lesson learned from Ukraine war or not, but its effect on sales of drones and smart munitions globally will be tremendous.

If you're looking for lessons I believe the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war had already demonstrated how UAVs are used effectively in war and how powerless modern AA is against mass UAV usage. If you were relying on the current Ukranian war to learn that you need to increase UAV procurement your enemy is at least 2 years ahead of you already.

Clark Gap · Nov 6, 2022

tankphobia said:
If you're looking for lessons I believe the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war had already demonstrated how UAVs are used effectively in war and how powerless modern AA is against mass UAV usage. If you were relying on the current Ukranian war to learn that you need to increase UAV procurement your enemy is at least 2 years ahead of you already.

There were a lot of comments about "Nagorno-Karabakh is not a typical conflict between super power, they are both weak".

tankphobia · Nov 7, 2022

Clark Gap said:
There were a lot of comments about "Nagorno-Karabakh is not a typical conflict between super power, they are both weak".

If you look at it as whole war, sure since the end death toll of that conflict is probably less than half a month of the Ukrainian one. However I must say the UAV tactics used by Azerbaijan in the conflict is almost the same as any major power would use them, providing concrete data to base future UAV tactics off. EW, search and destroy and swarm attacks are all used in tandem to overwhelm a well trained enemy.

This is in stark contrast to the current war where the most common UAV usage is dropping 20 year old mortar shells from drones.

Blitzo · Nov 7, 2022

tphuang said:
It's amazing how much longer endurance the turboprop drones have over jet powered ones.

I am not a big fan of ch7.

I would caution that you might be a bit hasty.

The endurance of a UAV -- especially a jet powered UAV -- depends on the type of engine it is using.

In the case of CH-7, it is very possible that it is still using a turbojet rather than more efficient turbofan.

Some other recent jet powered UAVs like WZ-7 or WZ-10/WL-10 are all powered by turbojets as well and thus their endurance is somewhat poor for their size.

LCR34 · Nov 7, 2022

Blitzo said:
I would caution that you might be a bit hasty.

The endurance of a UAV -- especially a jet powered UAV -- depends on the type of engine it is using.

In the case of CH-7, it is very possible that it is still using a turbojet rather than more efficient turbofan.

Some other recent jet powered UAVs like WZ-7 or WZ-10/WL-10 are all powered by turbojets as well and thus their endurance is somewhat poor for their size.

Turbojet is a plus if you go high altitude and high speed.

Chinese UAV/UCAV development

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