How many new hulls each year do you think is involved in a naval build up? What percentage of total Chinese ship construction capacity do you think that represent. For that matter what percentage of the available ship yards do you think is actually capable of build warships?
I explained much of it on the reply to another post.
The whole HDZ Changxing extension is estimated with an output of 6 large ships per year. This is currently doing LNG carriers and have done the CMA CGN dual fuel 23,000 container ships. In addition to military contracts, they already got slots filled for additional LNG carriers, orders from COSCO and MOL likely, as well as from Russia (Yamal LNG project) to serve the Northeast Route.
I do not think additional 075 and the heard about Type 076 will be built in the old Hudong Zhonghua facility. Once this yard is finished with its existing contracts --- the four Type 054A/P, the Thai 071E, and the eight Type 054A ordered by PLAN, this yard is finshed and will be sold to the real estate developers. The Shanghai local government wants all yards out of the city and the remaining land built into high rise condos to alleviate the rise of home prices.
Whatever new contracts --- 075, 076, additional 071, Type 054B --- these will have to be built in the HDZ Changxing extension. This migration of HDZ from its old site at Huangpu River to Changxing Island, this can be a big factor as military construction will now compete with civilian construction.
JIangnan is currently doing a boatload of orders, and they got orders from Evergreen to build the world's largest containers ships (24,000TEU), an order that is split between Samsung Heavy Industries. Ship class is often divided between Chinese and Korean shipyards, sometimes even Japanese shipyards. This shows you that slots have been tight. There was a recent order from a Chinese shipowner to a Korean or Japanese shipmaker, so this is an indication that slots even the private ones are getting tight in the mainland.
Considering that Jiangnan is doing containerships and LNG carriers, while it has to do 003, rumors of 004, more 055 and 052D/E, that's all going to be tight.
Dalian shipyard are known to be doing oil tankers, and they got some orders including from Teekay. I do not think they will be building another carrier so the dock used by the Liaoning and Shandong will be used for more commercial ships. But the other dock used to make 055s and 052D, currently being used for commercial ships, can be rededicated once more to destroyers.
As far as frigates goes, these are built by smaller state owned shipyards that do not do large ships, so building frigates use a different capacity. Many of the smaller ships are also built in private yards, so that is not going to be affected. Huangpu Shipyard for example, uses an older facility to build frigates and government ships (yes it looks old and messy are previously commented), but it also has a new facility that they are using for commercial newbuild.
Shipyard next to Jiangnan, Shanghai Waigaiqaio I hope I got the spelling right, doesn't do military ships, so this will continue to do large scale commercial ships.
