Chinese semiconductor thread II

[european_guy]

Tech war: Nvidia to resume selling H20 graphic processing chips to China in boon for AI
Nvidia has applied to sell the H20 GPU again, and the US government has ‘assured Nvidia that licences will be granted’

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H20 licensing part of a "mosaic'

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1945079287981171141

Treasury Secretary Bessent on Bloomberg: H20 licensing part of a "mosaic' deal with China in Geneva and London

Mainly is H20 against rare earths.

How long this "deal" will last?...nobody knows, US can change idea tomorrow morning or maybe it will last until 2026...but the fact that is done in exchange of rare earths makes me think that this will last until rare earth US stockpiling is done, let's say at least 2/3 months...maybe longer if China is smart and manages to trickle down the flow of rare earths to US.

Chinese companies should also stockpile H20s as fast as they can.....

BTW this is the first time in all these years that I see US come to terms with China on semiconductor/chip restrictions. Until today it was always up to US to decide how much pain to inflict on China...and all China could do was just complaining.

IMO this is the first time that US would like to ban something (AI chips), but they had to refrain due to a counter ban against them. This is not a small detail, this is a key milestone reached by China in this long tech war.

 

[sunnymaxi]

H20 licensing part of a "mosaic'

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1945079287981171141

Mainly is H20 against rare earths.

How long this "deal" will last?...nobody knows, US can change idea tomorrow morning or maybe it will last until 2026...but the fact that is done in exchange of rare earths makes me think that this will last until rare earth US stockpiling is done, let's say at least 2/3 months...maybe longer if China is smart and manages to trickle down the flow of rare earths to US.

Chinese companies should also stockpile H20s as fast as they can.....

yes its short term patch up.

honestly this is exactly the same strategy on both sides. Chinese firms will stockpile H-20 and US firms will stockpile RE magnets.

but one thing, RE export control did wonders. i didn't expect this kind of reaction.

 

[CMP]

Granted we don't know any other parts of the deal aside from the H20 and RE piece, but I can't help but feel based on what little we know that this deal still favors the US significantly.

 

[GiantPanda]

Granted we don't know any other parts of the deal aside from the H20 and RE piece, but I can't help but feel based on what little we know that this deal still favors the US significantly.

Unless it means access to an EUV, it will feel like it favors the US.

That said, RE review is every 6 months. Things can always be cut off again. No deficit or advantage is permanent, long or even medium term in these agreements.

 

[CMP]

Unless it means access to an EUV, it will feel like it favors the US.

That said, RE review is every 6 months. Things can always be cut off again. No deficit or advantage is permanent, long or even medium term in these agreements.

Yes, but early indications are that Chinese RE export volumes are at 3x their 2024 volumes. US will quickly reach sufficient stockpile size and Chinese leverage will be gone. I can't help but feel they fumbled this one.

 

[huemens]

Chinese companies should also stockpile H20s as fast as they can.....

IMHO, Chinese companies should try to wean off of it as fast as they can rather than buying more of it. The only reason they should be buying more Nvidia chips is only if Huawei has a supply/capacity issue. Huawei already has chips that perform better than H20 and the issues are more to do with software ecosystem and support from companies, developers and researchers. Most of the Chinese researchers that are not affiliated with Huawei are still focused on finding innovative ways of squeezing more performance out of downgraded Nvidia chips rather than trying to do the same for Huawei or other domestic chips. That needs to change.

 

[tinrobert]

This report includes a total of 7 Chinese SME companies (see its appendix table). Their extremely incomplete statistics led to meaningless/wrong market share conclusions.
For example there’s over 20 etch SMEs in China, but they only included two.

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These are nice lists but they tell me nothing except there are numerous companies in each sector. What are their revenues, market shares, growth. These metrics are considerably more important that a list.

 

[Wahid145]

This report includes a total of 7 Chinese SME companies (see its appendix table). Their extremely incomplete statistics led to meaningless/wrong market share conclusions.
For example there’s over 20 etch SMEs in China, but they only included two.

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Could you please share more stuff from him like this? I don't know Chinese and to access his other contents, I'll have to use WeChat which does not allow translation unlike Google Chrome...

These are nice lists but they tell me nothing except there are numerous companies in each sector. What are their revenues, market shares, growth. These metrics are considerably more important that a list.

But it does tell you what a Juggernaut China is going to be in SME industry in very short period of time. You see how they are decimating the EV industry right at this moment?

 

[gelgoog]

Right now the Chinese SME industry is highly fragmented. Even the Chinese government has asked for more consolidation. This would allow higher R&D budgets and better economies of scale.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Huahai Qingke's first 12-inch low-temperature ion implanter was successfully launched​

The first 12-inch low-temperature ion implanter iPUMA-LT independently developed by Xinyi Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huahai Qingke Co., Ltd., was successfully launched and sent to a leading company in the field of domestic logic chip manufacturing.


Huahai Qingke has achieved full coverage of all models of large-beam ion implanters for advanced process chip manufacturing. Ion implantation equipment is a key equipment in the front-end process of integrated circuit manufacturing, with extremely high technical barriers. Domestic integrated circuit manufacturing companies have long relied mainly on imported equipment, and there is huge room for domestic substitution.
At present, Huahai Qingke has launched a series of large-beam ion implantation machines, and is actively deploying a series of equipment such as medium-beam ion implantation machines and high-energy ion implantation machines.

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